Warriors’ surge to finals is biggest surprise since 2005 Tigers premiership run - and Shaun Johnson deserves Dally M

The fact that the Warriors are all but certain to finish in the top four heading into the final month of the season has to be the biggest outperformance of expectations since the Wests Tigers’ improbable 2005 premiership.

To put it in perspective, they were considered more likely than this year’s Tigers rabble to collect the wooden spoon when pre-season betting markets opened. 

They were considered a $5.50 chance to make the finals and you could have snared a $17 return if you somehow knew back then that they were bound for a top-four berth.

The Warriors are now at prohibitive odds to finish in the upper half of the top eight, the proud owners of a 12-7 record and facing a dream run into the playoffs that pits them against the Titans, Tigers, Sea Eagles, Dragons and Dolphins with three of those matches in New Zealand. 

There was little to suggest a turnaround was in the offing back in autumn with rookie coach Andrew Webster taking over a roster that had lost its rising star in Reece Walsh as well as established veterans in Euan Aitken, Matt Lodge and Kodi Nikorima.

Tohu Harris. You can’t spell T-O-U-G-H without Tohu. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

They added some decent, but tainted in differing ways, talent but there were no big names that screamed game-changers.

Fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad had been down on form the past couple of years at Canberra, Te Maire Martin was extracted from Brisbane as part of the Walsh deal but his concussion history was not great, Mitch Barnett came from Newcastle with judiciary baggage, ditto for Manly’s Dylan Walker while Dragons forward Jackson Ford and Sharks playmaker Luke Metcalf had potential but limited opportunities at their previous stops.

Eels forward Marata Niukore was their marquee recruit but the club had to douse speculation in the off-season that he was having second thoughts about rejoining his junior team.

After a lacklustre first year back at the club, there were doubts over whether Shaun Johnson was still the answer at halfback but now he should go close to winning the Dally M Medal. 

No one would have begrudged the veteran half if he had called it a day last year after a couple of serious injuries stymied his stint at the Sharks and the father of a young family admitted he had struggled to cope with the nomadic existence the Warriors endured when the pandemic prevented them from returning to their homeland.

Midway through the 2022 season, the Warriors were a mess with Nathan Brown shown the door after the coach informed the club he did not want to relocate to Auckland when the three years of Covid-enforced relocation ended. 

Club legend Stacey Jones was parachuted into the gig as the interim and eked out two wins from the remaining 11 matches as the Warriors only avoided the wooden spoon due to the Tigers’ pitiful 4-20 campaign.

Webster’s announcement of coach barely rated a mention in the NRL news cycle on the Australian side of the Tasman which proved to be a blessing in disguise as the former Panthers assistant set about an off-season reshaping the club’s defensive woes.

The Warriors conceded 700 points last season, even worse than the Tigers.

Webster’s specialty at the Panthers was their attack while Cameron Ciraldo masterminded their brickwall defence.

But he clearly learned a lot about the science of preventing points from Ciraldo and head coach Ivan Cleary because that is where the Warriors have made the biggest strides in 2023, which was noticeable from the get-go.

Across the first four rounds they conceded just nine tries as they jumped out to a surprising 3-1 start while defying the odds to defeat the Knights, Cowboys and Bulldogs. 

With the Dolphins also off to an astonishing 3-1 record in their first month in the big league, the Warriors again slipped under rugby league’s radar that Des Hasler has perennially tried to avoid.

Shaun Johnson. (Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)

The bubble looked like it was about to burst at Shark Park in Round 5 when Cronulla led 26-6 inside the first half-hour.

But after a stirring comeback to win 32-30, the Warriors not only proved they were the real deal but have been able to maintain a mystical element which has rarely been sighted at the club since foundation in 1995 – consistency.

Even when they had a three-game slide mid-season, they gave the Storm a run for their money in Melbourne and did likewise with Penrith at Magic Round before a late try in each game put the result beyond their reach.

Their defence is now a cohesive unit, very Panther-like, which has gone from leaking 29.17 per game in 2022 to just 18.21 – only Penrith and the Broncos have a better record for points conceded. 

With the defence sorted, it has allowed Johnson the freedom to play the kind of off-the-cuff footy that puts the team in front on the scoreboard rather than just another side that scores in the 20s most weeks but concedes 30 plus more often than not.

The Warriors have the size, creativity and speed to match up as well as pretty much any other team against Penrith even though they lack recent finals experience.

But while it’s been a while between playoff drinks, they’re still one of the more experienced rosters in the NRL with an average age in their squad hovering around 27.

(Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)

And of the 17 players that registered the Warriors’ win over the Raiders before their bye last week, nine had played Test footy. They won’t be daunted by the bright lights of the finals.

The Warriors are this year’s version of the Cowboys of 2022 who made a remarkably steep climb from second last to a converted try away from qualifying for the Grand Final.

They’re also unlikely to go all the way to the premiership decider but the very fact that they are in the conversation is the most extraordinary rapid rise since the Tigers of 18 years ago when they went from wooden spoon contenders to premiers. 

The Warriors will be every Australian supporter’s second favourite team in the finals and after three years of huge sacrifices during the pandemic while receiving varying degrees of support from the NRL, they deserve every bandwagon fan that comes their way.