Canterbury were huge disappointments, Parramatta and North Queensland took giant steps back after performing well in last year’s finals but South Sydney will go down as the biggest under-achievers of 2023.
For this team to miss the playoffs is almost unfathomable considering they have genuine stars in Cameron Murray, Damien Cook, Latrell Mitchell, Cody Walker on their roster, supported by Origin calibre trio Jai Arrow, Campbell Graham and Keaon Koloamatangi and the NRL’s most potent try-scorer in Alex Johnston.
They can’t point to injuries being the reason for their dramatic drop from top spot in Round 11 to finishing ninth on the back of their meek 26-12 surrender to the Roosters in the final round which allowed their bitter rivals to steal their playoff berth.
The main talking point since their early exit has been the future of Mitchell and whether he should remain fullback or switch to the centres when Jack Wighton arrives next season.
This potential move, first reported by The Sydney Morning Herald, has plenty of merit.
Mitchell is an anomaly as far as NRL fullbacks go, relying more on impact than work rate.
Penrith’s Dylan Edwards is the benchmark for non-stop No.1s in the NRL and while he averages 40 possessions, 17 runs for 174 running metres, Mitchell tallies 32 possessions and 11 runs for only 101 metres gained.
When it comes to metrics like tackle breaks, Mitchell matches Edwards with five per game and he’s also elite in creating line breaks (fifth overall at 1.2 on average) but he only broke clear three times in 16 games this year.
He’s also different when compared to the rest of the fullbacks in the league when it comes to size. Mitchell’s bulk is more in line with the modern-day centre who relies on anaerobic bursts when attacking raids are on and can stand up in defence to back-rowers running wide.
Wighton has not played fullback regularly for the Raiders since 2019 and it’s clear that five-eighth is his better position considering he was instrumental in kick-starting the Green Machine’s run to the Grand Final that year and collected the Dally M Medal the following season in the pivotal role.
Jason Demetriou could look to switch Cody Walker to fullback, who has always excelled there when he’s filled in for Souths on 20 occasions since his debut season of 2016.
With pressure growing on Lachlan Ilias at halfback, with the young playmaker suffering from the ongoing but inevitable comparisons to Adam Reynolds, perhaps Demetriou could look at using Mitchell in the halves with Wighton or Walker and rotate the three players in game to keep opposing defensive lines guessing.
That’s highly unlikely but all options should be on the table for Souths after they plummeted from top spot mid-season to miss the playoffs on the back of five straight trips to at least the prelim final stage.
Latrell Mitchell greets fans after South Sydney’s win in Tamworth over the Tigers in July. (Photo by Jenny Evans/Getty Images)
The roster
The Bunnies have barely been able to sign any established first-graders over the past few years due to their heavy investment in their marquee stars but have been able to lure Wighton to the big smoke for less than he could have received from the Raiders or Dolphins due to his friendship with Mitchell and Walker.
They’ll again be losing some depth players this off-season with utility back Blake Taaffe switching to Canterbury, second-rower Jed Cartwright heading to Newcastle and Hame Sele returning to St George Illawarra.
There is also a chance Tom Burgess will depart a year early to play under his older brother Sam at Warrington following his abrupt, acrimonious departure from Demetriou’s coaching staff recently.
South Sydney’s roster is as strong as most teams and should be for the next couple of years at least with Arrow and Koloamatangi the only rep stars off contract at the end of 2024.
(Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
The key player for their future
Wighton’s arrival could be just what the Rabbitohs need to reinvigorate their side, which has been fairly static over the past couple of years.
Wherever he ends up playing is not irrelevant but when it comes to Wighton, he could slot in at fullback, centre, five-eighth or even as a ball-playing lock if Murray is ever unavailable.
The challenge for Demetriou will be maximising the Rabbitohs’ return on their investment in the 30-year-old Raiders star.
The coach
The third year is often the make or break one for a first-time coach, if they make it that far.
Look at many of the recent examples of coaches who jumped or were pushed at lesser performing clubs midway through their third season at the helm – Dean Pay at the Bulldogs, John Morris at the Sharks, Nathan Brown at the Warriors, Trent Barrett at Manly, Anthony Griffin at Penrith and the Dragons.
The roster is strong, Wighton is one of the highest-profile players arriving at a new club next year and the premiership window is well and truly wide open for this current group.
So that means it’s a golden opportunity for Demetriou to prove his first-year effort to finish one game short of the GF was no fluke and to establish himself as a long-term NRL coach.
He’s under contract until the end of 2026 so that should give him some job security but this is the NRL we’re talking about and he’s already having to put up with reports that Burgess or Wayne Bennett could be in the frame if he can’t get this star-studded side firing next year.
Jason Demetriou. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
What needs to change
The difference between South Sydney’s best and worst is way too severe. Premiership-winning teams don’t have regular losing streaks or performances where they get towelled up by 30 and that has been a common occurrence for the Rabbitohs in recent years.
Their six-game winning streak to rise to first in May was followed by a four losses in their next five matches to teams who ultimately finished eighth or lower.
Souths play on emotion but if key players start games flat, it quickly spreads and upset losses to teams they should beat in their sleep are far too frequent.
Demetriou has diversified their attack so they’re not so left-centric but with Mitchell, Wighton and Walker all naturally favouring that edge of the field, they could whip up a storm together which would be music to the ears of Johnston on the flank as he looks to reel in Ken Irvine’s all-time tryscoring record.
While the attack will only need minor adjustments, Souths have to improve their defence after ranking a middling eighth in 2023 and conceding five tries or more on nine occasions.
The outlook
There’s a sense that time is not necessarily running out for this Souths bunch but with Cook and Walker in their 30s and entering the final two years of their contract, the premiership window won’t be open forever.
They will bounce back into the finals picture next year but solving where to play Wighton and Mitchell will be crucial, otherwise the Rabbitohs will again look like millionaires some weeks and paupers the next.
SSTID
Roar Rookie
Agreed with your comments about Penrith and their fitness. I recall a few years ago being amazed at the fact that the Penrith players jogged quickly off the field at half time every game and thinking - how fit must they be. It is an unspoken attribute of this side and how they have stayed on top for so long, because their fitness allows them to play the grinding boa constrictor game they play.
SSTID
Roar Rookie
Personally I am against gambling, I have seen too many problems caused by this scourge. But many times throughout the season I saw the Sports Bets odds in the Souths games and I thought to myself the odds for the opposition look very juicy to me. If I did take up the ones I though were too good, there would have been no cost of living pressure for me this year. Agree with everything you said.
Succhi
Roar Rookie
Must have been when he was at the Roosters.
ScouseinOz
Roar Rookie
It's definitely defence where Souths fell away in the second half of the season. However, there is something a bit stale about the team. There seem to be 6 or 7 players that need to be retained at all costs even though the balance of the side could be better. The fallout of Adam Reynolds going to Brisbane means that experienced players like Cook, Walker & Johnson will probably now stay too long in the side. I'm not sure if Jack Wighton, who is a great player, is part of a refresh they need. He seems like a square peg in a round hole - unless you cut Walker. It just seems easier gor the club atm to cut someone like Tass - a young player with value that fits brilliantly in the backline.
johnno 2
Roar Rookie
I wrote after the first game this year that South s didn't have '' IT ''. There has been something wrong all season , you wouldn;t bet your shirt , week in ,week out , you would never know what to expect. There would have been more money betting against the Bunnies , it's just not Mitchell or Walker alone even tho they didn't get it together consistently , it's something in the team culture and of course i'm only looking from the outside as a league fan
Duncan Smith
Roar Guru
Cookie is permanent no 14 next year. It's in his contract. Max 30 minutes per game, but still full pay.
Robbo
Roar Rookie
I feel that Lattrell carries injury a bit and seems to have trouble with his weight - its one cycles the other. Great player but maybe better at centre - fullback too important to be running around at 75% with flashes of brilliance
Robbo
Roar Rookie
Just on the gravy train now
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Wasn’t he carving until he got injured?
London Panther
Roar Rookie
For mine, the Rabbits just aren’t as fit as other teams in the comp. I am always confident when Penrith plays the Rabbits that if you can take the sting out of them in the first 20 they fall away alarmingly. Most of the time this results in Penrith running away with it; even when the Rabbits won against the Panthers earlier this year Penrith had a good lead going into the final 10 minutes, despite not capitalising on a lot of good field position from minutes 20-60. This isn’t about the Panthers, because I see it against other teams as well; even against the Roosters (do or die game against their bitter rivals) they couldn’t sustain intensity. Only game where they out-‘intensified’ their opponents this year was their excellent win in NZ. And this isn’t just about Mitchell (although he is the poster boy) but you see it across a number of aspects. I know he get through a mountain of work, but there isn’t a game when Murray isn’t shattered at 30 minutes, which you don’t see with the other top locks. There are also a number of hot heads in the team, but these lapses of discipline also seem to happen in the last 20 minutes of the game, often when the result is finalised (don’t have a stat, but would be interested to see the total weeks of suspensions ‘earned’ in the last 20 minutes of the game by team over the past 2 years; I imagine that Souths would be at or near the top of that stat). Cook should be running more as the game goes on etc.
dogs
Roar Rookie
Bit harsh saying injuries/suspensions didn't affect Souths. Have a look at this page: https://www.rugbyleagueproject.org/seasons/nrl-2023/souths/summary.html Starting middles played 2/3 of the season: Tatola played 16 and Burgess only 15. The only forwards to play 20 games were Murray and Cook. This is why I think they fell away, particularly in defence. Constantly changing your middle forwards is going to have a big impact on defensive continuity. If they kept their first choice pack most weeks, I think they go heaps better. Add to that that Walker and Cook are both getting older. Cook has always been about his speed, and so his impact is reducing. I think we've seen Walker adjust to slowing down, he was more creative this year, his highlights were great passes more than great runs. The focus on Mitchell is sad, but that's what we do. Apparently we like stories to be about individual people, not groups, and so Mitchell is the cheered as the hero when Souths go well, and booed as the villain when they don't. It's just pantomime for blokes.
London Panther
Roar Rookie
Or should we say, Freddie?
Tony
Roar Guru
Wait till Cody hears this!
Tony
Roar Guru
You've always been an ideas man Duncan :laughing:
Stewy76
Roar Rookie
Come on Duncan. Didn't you watch Cookie this year? He's in retirement mode now. He's more likely to get a adult diaper change than a position change at this end of his career.
SSTID
Roar Rookie
They have a young chap call Tyrone Munro who could fill these shoes (fullback and speed). But he is not big nor experienced enough to slot into this position on a full time basis next year. Maybe he gets to fill in this role whenever LM is not playing. While I like Blake Taaffe, I never thought of him as a first grade NRL player, especially at fullback. Too small and constantly got pushed back whenever he hit the defensive line. Penrith absolutely cruelled him in this department in the 2021 Grand Final. Another good buy by Gus I thought, soon to be discarded when he realises his limitations.
Max
Roar Rookie
I’ve always thought that Latrell was a 6! It stop him floating in and out of games.
Duncan Smith
Roar Guru
Damien Cook to centre. He has played origin at centre :thumbup:
Succhi
Roar Rookie
I don’t think Souths have another fullback option anyway? If Latrell is fit, avoid suspensions and looks interested, then he is great, but I feel this is a the same statement every year - and nothing has changed. I think by mid year other teams just worked out Souths limited attack options and worked out their defence weaknesses. To me, Souths also lack speed. I don’t see anyone there with explosive speed off the mark or anyone who could achieve a long range try.
Stewy76
Roar Rookie
Latrell Mitchell is done. I'm sorry Souths fans, but the Rugby League world has seen him at his best. From here, we will watch this once great player struggle with both physical and mental health. Good on him for being determined to be great again, but his dominance on the field will just continue to diminish next year as it has this year. Souths need to look to their juniors and find the next legend coming through the ranks. The more expectation you place on Trell to be that legend the more pressure you heap on his already fractured plate.