Sure, the Wallabies could mathematically still make the quarter finals but it’s highly unlikely, so Australian rugby fans must look for greener pastures elsewhere.
2024 must start and bring with it Super Rugby Pacific success because for the first time, for a long time, Super Rugby sides stand a better chance to secure silverware than the national side.
Australian rugby fans can’t be made to wait until the three-Test international series against Wales in July next year to taste success, it must start in February.
If we remove Eddie Jones from the direct equation for a minute, Rugby Australia must promote, improve, and lift Australian Super Rugby teams.
The concepts of grassroots investment, centralisation and pathways et cetera have all been spoken about enough on this website and fans in Australia understand where the systems are deficient. Steps must be taken by the governing body within the next 12 months to put the game first and leave behind parochial and selfish tendencies.
The Super Rugby clubs and their coaches have a vital role to play in the next 12 months to improve the fortunes of the Australian game. They can start by winning and developing those habits within the young Wallabies who will be reintegrated in their systems.
Jake Gordon of the Waratahs. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
The pass mark for 2024 should be four Aussie teams in the top eight, two in semis and one Aussie team holding the cup at the end.
Why must it start at SRP? Because the Wallaby players in the squad have around 50 Super Rugby caps or less and are obviously at a stage in their careers where they’re not ready to carry the country on their backs.
This is not a slight on them, it is an objective view on 2023 as a whole. It’s unrealistic to suggest these players, most of whom have not been regular starters for their Super sides for more than one season, to be world beaters, no matter who the coach is. They are undercooked and out of their depth.
With that said, Super Rugby 2024 is an amazing opportunity for the young players to take their learnings into a longer season and upskill their teammates whilst also continuing their own improvement.
The more intense training schedule, the different coaching and the better quality opposition all makes for learnings, especially for the young and inexperienced players within the Wallabies.
SRP teams have been working around the clock to give their squads more games a year, to give their sides the cohesion, continuity and the miles in the legs the Northern Hemisphere’s sides already enjoy and benefit from.
The Queensland Reds, Melbourne Rebels and ACT Brumbies have all made partnerships with Japanese clubs while the Western Force are three quarters through their four-game series against the Cheetahs from South Africa.
As an aside to the World Cup action, the Force are playing some exciting and expansive rugby and the ledger is 2-1 to the Cheetahs.
Despite this innovation and dedication from the clubs’ best performers down to the bottom two, there are those who believe culling the Australian Super Rugby teams down to just three teams is prudent.
“I played at the Brumbies, I played at the Waratahs. If it meant getting rid of one of them to make Australian rugby better, I’d be all for it because we don’t have the depth and talent to play this many players at a professional level,” Hoiles said in Stan Sports’ post-match review after the Wales defeat.
Tom Wright of the Brumbies. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
In other countries this would work, but because the sports landscape in Australia is so congested these players would rather leave and earn good money instantly than stay and fight for a spot, and who can blame them?
It is a fool’s gold way to create synthetic depth and would push the peripheral players to rugby league and other codes, so less options to be Super Rugby players is not the way to encourage growth.
You could caveat this with an argument that the money not spent on five sides could be spent on securing the next generation of talented school kids, but that is big load of trust to put in the top office at a time when they are considering throwing money at washed up league veterans.
It would also be five years or so before Australian rugby saw the fruits of such destructive labour.
World Cup-winning Wallaby great Matt Burke would tend to agree this route would not serve Australian rugby union.
Burke is a member of the Waratahs board and he says the Australian market is saturated with multiple options for our talented youth.
“[Rugby] says ‘we will give you the experience if you hang around’, [whereas] the clubs come in from rugby league and go ‘we will give you a couple grand, some boots, some jerseys, we’ll take you to training’, so all of a sudden, they get hooked,” Burke said on ‘The Good the Bad and the Rugby Australia’ podcast.
“It’s a merry-go-round that’s gonna continue, so if we cut it down to three teams it’s gonna be even harder to get a start for the younger kids to come through, which is a really tricky cycle.”
Queensland Reds coach Les Kiss. (Photo by Brendan Hertel, QRU)
Where does this leave Australian rugby in 2024?
Les Kiss is now well and truly back in Australia and has a firm grip on the state of affairs at the Queensland Reds. Ballymore is even now owned by the state franchise putting it in a strong position.
Darren Coleman, Simon Cron, Kevin Foote, and Stephen Larkham are all at various stages of building the Waratahs, Force, Rebels, and Brumbies respectively.
Coleman is probably at the back of the pack with poor recruitment and the results in 2023 to match. Larkham leads the quartet having benefitted from a well regimented outfit left behind by Dan McKellar.
Foote and Cron have both done the best with what they have and have recruited well.
While Foote is just waiting for things to click, Cron is doing well to cultivate a young roster to unleash its building firepower.
None more so than Junior Wallabies representative Ronan Leahy and returned prodigy Harry Potter, who have been lighting up the Toyata Cheetahs series.
Rugby Australia must do a long list of things, but cutting Super Rugby teams is not one of them. Making sure these franchises have all the things they need to thrive in SRP 2024 is vital, because their success can be a source of pride and joy for Australian fans.
Super Rugby in 2024 can become, for the first time in a long time, the beacon of hope for Australian rugby.
If RA begin to bring about the changes that are required, Super Rugby will see the fruits of the labour first, before Aussies can bask in the light of the national team once again.
Gravox
Roar Rookie
Short memory syndrome or is winning the only metric? The Wallabies under Rennie led the French until the final few minutes and seriously challenged the Irish. In New Zealand the Wallabies led the All Blacks until a late penalty sank them. The previous season they beat both the All Blacks and the Springboks the teams that made the final ( and sorry to all the great final columnists, it was a painful, stodgy variation on rugby league without the excitement. One of the worst games of rugby ever. Why don’t stadiums have a roof to prevent the ruination of the field and the greasy ball?) also keep in mind that South Africa, New Zealand and Argentina all made it to the quarters and those three teams make up our rugby championship! Southern Hemisphere rugby has won all but one of the World Cups so the way we play is clearly suited to knockout rugby. We simply have to accept what soccer has accepted. Our best will play overseas as that is where the money is. How many Matildas play in Australia? When will we have a number one tennis player again? It will happen because there will always be talent. Winning the rugby World Cup? It could happen if the talent arises but maybe the glory days are over. I think Fiji shows us that the days of the Pacific are coming. After all many of the NZ and Australian teams ( not to mention some European teams) have had large contingents of Pacific players. Our most successful Super rugby coaches must be given the chance to coach the Wallabies and let’s not have five year contracts.
ScottD
Roar Guru
Yes, ok. Personally I am highly dubious of increasing debt until and unless structural reform is undertaken at every level. We build off a foundation. If that foundation is wrong the debt funding will be misdirected and the resulting debt mountain will be a burden which doesn't result in long term upside to the game. I think the QLD experience is a great example. They took the short term (5year) hit wrt on field performance to focus on local development and getting their finances right. They are now primed for the next 10 years.
John Ferguson
Expert
RA are looking to enter debt to fund growth. Entering debt is legitimate way to get things done. There has been no detail tabled about what will be done and how but the general and initial efforts will see high performance, S & C and those sort of performance aspects to be shared and uniformed across the franchise to lift standards. I think the purchase of players in isolation is not make or break in the short term, it will be one medium to long term. As you've noted, changing the franchising would be the biggest concern and hopefully the chairman has asked for detail before signing.
ScottD
Roar Guru
Sorry, just thinking about it a bit further. How does it help funding if RA has no money and is in debt? Doesn't it just mean that RA can force change at NSW so they adopt sensible financial approaches like QLD did? If so, then rugby in NSW will go backwards in the shirt term as they won't be able to buy players on hock.
Rocky's Rules
Roar Rookie
@John And exactly what does "centralisation" mean to you John? It's an ambiguous motherhood statement of possible intent. Talk to me again when there is an actual signficiant change.
ScottD
Roar Guru
John The Force agreed to it once before and handed over their franchise license because RA told them if their "great plan". RA then weaponised it and terminated the Forces license. I think most people think a more coordinated approach is a worthy objective (and necessary) but trust is still in short supply in the West.
ScottD
Roar Guru
Or we could just wind up Hoiles :)
Ankle-tapped Waterboy
Roar Rookie
Just to mention, Western Force play the Cheetahs tomorrow 7 October. Has anyone seen any promo/publicity?
Frankly
Roar Rookie
I hope you are right. I think it's just a leap to far.
John Ferguson
Expert
Thanks Jeznez! I had no idea as the Waratahs have been mute since off-season and no information about this has been spoken about or readily available. Another failing by them and RA to market the game. Also there is no detail on whether this will mean more games for the two teams or if their is an upcoming series? Force and Reds as well as Brums are in full swing or nearing kick-off. Rebels are also heading to Japan.
John Ferguson
Expert
Rebels have recruited : Matt Proctor (2 test AB), Lukhan Salakai-Loto, Taniela Tupou, Jake Strachan, Filipo Daugunu. They are either Wallabies key players currently or in recent years and bolster a already strong roster. Reds have recruited: Jeffery TOOMAGA-ALLEN and Alex HODGMAN Hodgman a former All Black and JTA was a hurricanes and recently Ulster player, Massimo DE LUTIIS is one of the most promising props coming from the U20s Wallabies, scrummages better than Marley Pearce, Joe BRIAL is a up and coming backrower from Canterbury. Force have recruited: Harry Potter from Leicester (Australian born and bread), Ben Donaldson, Nic White, Ronan Leahy equally as deadly and tough as Darby Lancaster while Harry Hoopert, and Will Harris bolster already strong forward stock. Brumbies and Tahs yet to make any noteworthy signings.
Baz
Roar Rookie
That will do it.
In From The Side
Roar Rookie
No I didn’t take it as angry either mate. The thing is that even if they do get these coaches back, where are the players? The pathways here are not creating players with the skills needed to play well and this means the Super coaches are having to spend time teaching the players things they should have learnt at club level.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
I don't either. The problem Union has is Oz is its a part time professional sport. For a Rebels fan you get 4 months of following a team in person, 1 maybe 2 game in the next 4 months in Melbourne with the Test side and then nothing. An casual fan just goes back to AFL. I know lots of people play Union and Cricket but its professional sport so it needs to look after itself. European club pay twice as much because they pay twice as long and not having all the extra income from extra games seems bad planning and you only need to add a few players per team. SR AU would work fine and it doesn't take much to have SS and HC put in a reprehensive team to make the clubs happy. With test players away in camp the SR teams in the other areas would be dipping into their local pool anyway (or giving the u20s test players a run out). The Rep sides would know if they play well there would be contracts available to them which makes the players play better. I have done articles on how SRP now makes less money that it did 20 years ago (about 100k less per team) while the T14 teams are making about $10m more. T14 and SRP have an average of say 14k for attendance. T14 season total would be 210k plus an additional 2 home playoffs plus part of the income from an additional 4 knockout matches (semis and finals played on neutral venues). By Contrast the SRP team would get in 98k with potentially 3 more home games. Does take a genius to work out that the extra 112k the T14 would help make the teams more sustainable. I am sure the two Force home games reconnecting Fans and helping fill the coffers. I don't know how strong that Force team is but the Cheetahs seem to be a match for them.
jeznez
Roar Guru
"The Queensland Reds, Melbourne Rebels and ACT Brumbies have all made partnerships with Japanese clubs while the Western Force are three quarters through their four-game series against the Cheetahs from South Africa." Tahs have a Japan partnership as well John. https://nsw.rugby/news/nsw-rugby-and-kyushu-electric-power-kyuden-voltex-sign-mou-2023810
Morsie
Roar Rookie
They have had a series of ordinary coaches since Cheika and as a consequence lost a lot of players. I had hopes for Coleman but he seemed to lose the plot last year, mind you they had a bloody tough draw which just did not allow them to get any momentum.
Rolando
Roar Rookie
Well said. I think alignment (centralisation) is key to retaining five SR teams and overseeing their high-performance programs. I don’t buy into the suspicion that it is merely a preliminary step to reducing the number of SR teams. I also think that all SR franchises should require their forwards to spend at least two seasons in European club teams. Cricketers for example play county cricket and Aus best players in most sports head overseas to develop as well as earn good money. It has become obvious that Aussie forwards in particular need significant time playing in a high octane quality rugby environment in NH. Will Skelton, the Arnold bros, Isaac Rodda all good examples. Our centres and wings are generally as good as anywhere else. However, potentially fly-halves and scrum halves could gain form NH experience? Nic White seemed to have, before losing his way this year.
Jacko
Roar Rookie
Ratima will be an AB I think. He has been selected above Roigard in age group rugby but the Canes lost TJ and the Chiefs didnt lose Webber so Roigard got a major opportunity. Thats the luck you need sometimes but with Roigard build Id say he was built for test rugby.
Jacko
Roar Rookie
I guess the Chiefs are toast then and an Aus side will win. I dont believe that tho LOL.
Baz
Roar Rookie
Tah's have been on the slide for years and that is somewhat confusing given they have one of the strongest club competitions in Australia. I can only assume the pathway from club comp to SR is failing.