It seems that for many rugby league fans their team just making the top eight is success enough, and appearing in the finals, no matter how briefly or how soundly beaten, their team has had a good season.
So too with coaches, where making the finals is seen as some sort of pass mark, and the key to their survival, regardless of whether they ever win a premiership, but really, what’s the point of patting yourself on the back if your team finishes in the bottom half of the eight?
Essentially, even if there is technically a possibility of winning a premiership from there, history proves that it’s just not going to happen. Ever.
Let’s look at some of the cold, hard facts.
In the 26 premierships decided from the beginning of the NRL in 1998 up until 2023, no team from the bottom half of the top eight, or top 10 as it was in 1998, has won the premiership. Not one!
Joseph Tapine is tackled. (Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)
For all intents and purposes, the teams finishing below fourth may as well have packed up early, got on with their Mad Monday celebrations, and saved themselves the embarrassment.
Admittedly, there’s been some brave attempts over the years from some of the lower ranked finalists, but they all ended in failure. Six teams have made the Grand Final from outside the top four in the last 26 years, with the Cowboys and Bulldogs each doing it twice, but they were all defeated, and often by quite a margin.
Let’s look at how they went:
• The Cowboys made the decider from fifth in 2005 and eighth in 2017, only to be soundly beaten 30-16 and 34-6 by the Tigers and Storm respectively;
• Canterbury got there from ninth in the first year of the NRL in 1998 but were well-defeated 38-12 by the Broncos, and then came in seventh in 2014 only to be rolled 30-6 as Souths picked up their first premiership since 1971;
• The Roosters made it from sixth in 2010 but went down 32-8 to Wayne Bennett’s Dragons;
• Parramatta finished eighth in 2009 and got all the way to the decider only to lose to the Storm, who subsequently had the premiership stripped for salary cap breaches;
• The Warriors made it from sixth in 2011 but lost to Manly 24-10, and;
• The newly merged St George-Illawarra made the decider from sixth in 1999 but were pipped by two points by the Storm.
Close, but not a single premiership ring!
Taking a deeper dive through NRL history, it’s probably not all that surprising to learn that teams finishing either first or second on the ladder have won most of the Grand Finals. In the NRL era, the team finishing top of the ladder has won the big match 14 times, the team finishing second has won six times, while teams finishing third and fourth have won the decider three times each.
Makes sense, the best team finishes on top of the ladder and more often than not wins the Grand Final.
Now, leaving TV ratings and revenue streams aside for a moment, if that’s at all possible, perhaps these results are a good argument for reducing the number of teams in the finals to just six teams, as teams finishing seventh and eighth invariably are just cannon fodder for the rest.
Moreover, an eight-team finals structure often sees teams making the finals who really haven’t performed well enough over the season to be there, or to deserve even the slimmest chance of winning the premiership. For instance:
• In 2021, both the Knights and the Titans crept into the top eight with negative points differentials, with the Titans having won just 10 of their 24 games;
• In 2019, the Broncos made the finals in eighth place after winning just 11 of their 24 games, repeating their poor effort of 2008; and
• In 2003, the Dragons made the eight after winning nine and drawing three of their 24 games.
These teams should never have been given the opportunity to win a premiership with performances like that.
Anyway, I can’t see the NRL ever giving up the extra cash generated by an inflated finals series, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the finals extended to the top 10 in the near future, but the takeaway here is that if your team finishes the year in the bottom half of the top eight, 10 or whatever, brace yourself for disappointment.
Maxtruck
Roar Rookie
It is rewarding poor performances but until the draw is a full home and away schedule the 8 has to stay to cover the uneven draw. In saying that the bottom three sides in 2023, Tigers, Bulldogs & Dragons only played Panthers and Broncos once, If the teams that finished above them had that leg up the final 8 could have been different.
matth
Roar Guru
The main difficulty with relegation in our set up is that our potential second division clubs in the NSWRL and QCUP are mostly feeders for NRL Clubs.
matth
Roar Guru
I won’t be betting against you
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
Yeah that was my worry about relegation, the city/region with one team, Newcastle go down and sponsors drop and money to pay better players to attempt to go up is there. It’s like the have nots atm having to pay over’s for a good player, surely a second division team won’t get the first grade budget so I think it’d be even tougher
jammel
Roar Rookie
great backline that Broncos side... Nowhere near as good as the 1993 Raiders of course. If Ricky hadn't broken his leg in the 68-0 flogging of the eels, Canberra would have stormed to another GF win in 1993! :)
The Barry
Roar Guru
They did too… cheers !
Tony
Roar Guru
Top 6 seems about right to me
criag
Roar Rookie
I have always said we should have a top 6 instead of an 8. It is actually unfair on the top teams that we have the extra week. Final 5 was an awful system, too: the best team in the comp would often come into the GF playing two games in four weeks and be under-done. As for what makes a successful year, some commentators think it’s a failure if you don’t win the GF, which is nonsense!
jammel
Roar Rookie
Yeah my recollection is that the Bronx did it in 93 from fifth. I stand corrected if that's not the case but I'm pretty sure they did it. 2nd comp win for the Broncos!
The Barry
Roar Guru
Did a team ever win from 5th in a top five semi finals…? I don’t think anyone did…
Dionysus
Roar Rookie
Yes, they are now a championship team having dropped out of the 1st division (Superleague). Rugby League in England have long tried to establish Rugby League in the capital but they have had limited success. The Broncos were demoted to the Championship 4 years ago as they struggled with the fall out from Covid but they have taken that time to rebuild club finances and their team and this year were narrowly beaten by Bradford for a chance at promotion back to Superleague. They are a very good example of how demotion can actually help a club to rebuild as mentioned here https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/sep/16/london-broncos-making-capital-gains-as-they-target-super-league-return
Tony
Roar Guru
The NRL potentially loses key ‘footprint’ clubs… potentially all at once And they in turn would lose juniors, sponsors, members and fans.
Tony
Roar Guru
This would have had an interesting outcome in 2010 when the Storm ended up with the spoon.
Tony
Roar Guru
Whatever happened to the London Broncos? Aren't they in the second division now, The Champions League?
jammel
Roar Rookie
Yeah, I know it won't happen. But makes you think the old final 5 is the best finals system! :) True jeopardy and meaning in all finals matches! A team could win from fifth too back then :)
The Barry
Roar Guru
In 2019 the Titans came last. In 2020 the Broncos came last. In 2021 the Cowboys finished second last. If we’re talking about two up, two down that would mean no Queensland teams in the space of three years You said a couple of times “if you they came straight back up”. I can’t think of anything worse than the same one or two teams bouncing up and down As for not creating problems, there’s plenty. I think we end up with even more uneven distribution of talent, reduced revenue - TV networks won’t pay the same for second division footy. Travel costs are an issue for our second tier teams now. The NRL potentially loses key ‘footprint’ clubs… potentially all at once It would be an absolute disaster if the ‘national’ teams in the NRL found themselves in the second division and we had a Sydney or NSW based first division I’m still not sure what problem it solves other than the possibly true, but pretty obscure talented junior in Perth scenario
Albo
Roar Rookie
In London with a population of 9 million , they have 7 Premier League teams and a bunch of Championship League teams. But no Super League team ? Until they can field a strong London team, SuperLeague is going nowhere !
Dionysus
Roar Rookie
"Being sent down would be a death sentence for clubs." Firstly, I don't see it as a death sentence particularly if that club bounced back the following year. I accept that players not on long term contracts might leave and revenues would be reduced but does it matter ? The club going down is replaced by a better performing club going up. NRL quality goes up. Think of the Tigers or the Titans, struggling for years, would a spell in a second division really do them that much harm ? It might give them some much needed respite to get their clubs in good order and get back to top flight. A couple of seasons where they aren't bottom of the table every year might do them a world of good. If they couldn't survive financially in a lower division that could only be because they are the weakest link and maybe the sport is better off anyways. People always look at the negativity of the side going down and never at the positivity of the side getting their chance and going up. "The NRL couldn’t have no Queensland teams in the comp" That would require all three QLD teams to gain consecutive spoons in each of three seasons and none of them to bounce back up. Taking the example you quote, yes the Broncos would have moved down for a year and then straight back up the next. Your point is stronger with Warriors / Melbourne but remember that they don't disappear, they just play in the NRL2 division for however long it takes them to get their act together. Going down can actually galvanise a clubs supporters and get them to rally round for the push to get them up again. I don't buy it that 2 divisions creates heaps of problems in Australia, I don't think anyone has ever done the research to find out. I sincerely believe that a second division could just satisfy the demand for expansion that is out there and not being satisfied. Right now, there is no incentive for little Johnny ( who might have the potential to be the worlds best RL player of all time) to ever get the slightest bit interested the sport let alone play it simply because he happens to live in Perth. Perth has been trying to get into the NRL for the last 20 years that I know of. With no clubs in that area in competition, that is an absolutely crazy situation for the sport. What is worse is that as Perth competes with numerous other areas for the possibility of a slot at sometime in the future, its chances are akin to a lottery win. A 2 division system would at least address this glaring anomaly.
Dionysus
Roar Rookie
Granted.
Dionysus
Roar Rookie
Difference in population does not matter really since Soccor and Rugby take the vast majority of sporting fans, sponsorship and revenue in the UK. 15,000 is a decent gate for a regular game in the UK where as that would be considered pretty poor in Australia.