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It seems that for many rugby league fans their team just making the top eight is success enough, and appearing in the finals, no matter how briefly or how soundly beaten, their team has had a good season.
So too with coaches, where making the finals is seen as some sort of pass mark, and the key to their survival, regardless of whether they ever win a premiership, but really, what’s the point of patting yourself on the back if your team finishes in the bottom half of the eight?
Essentially, even if there is technically a possibility of winning a premiership from there, history proves that it’s just not going to happen. Ever.
Let’s look at some of the cold, hard facts.
In the 26 premierships decided from the beginning of the NRL in 1998 up until 2023, no team from the bottom half of the top eight, or top 10 as it was in 1998, has won the premiership. Not one!
Joseph Tapine is tackled. (Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)
For all intents and purposes, the teams finishing below fourth may as well have packed up early, got on with their Mad Monday celebrations, and saved themselves the embarrassment.
Admittedly, there’s been some brave attempts over the years from some of the lower ranked finalists, but they all ended in failure. Six teams have made the Grand Final from outside the top four in the last 26 years, with the Cowboys and Bulldogs each doing it twice, but they were all defeated, and often by quite a margin.
Let’s look at how they went:
• The Cowboys made the decider from fifth in 2005 and eighth in 2017, only to be soundly beaten 30-16 and 34-6 by the Tigers and Storm respectively;
• Canterbury got there from ninth in the first year of the NRL in 1998 but were well-defeated 38-12 by the Broncos, and then came in seventh in 2014 only to be rolled 30-6 as Souths picked up their first premiership since 1971;
• The Roosters made it from sixth in 2010 but went down 32-8 to Wayne Bennett’s Dragons;
• Parramatta finished eighth in 2009 and got all the way to the decider only to lose to the Storm, who subsequently had the premiership stripped for salary cap breaches;
• The Warriors made it from sixth in 2011 but lost to Manly 24-10, and;
• The newly merged St George-Illawarra made the decider from sixth in 1999 but were pipped by two points by the Storm.
Close, but not a single premiership ring!
Taking a deeper dive through NRL history, it’s probably not all that surprising to learn that teams finishing either first or second on the ladder have won most of the Grand Finals. In the NRL era, the team finishing top of the ladder has won the big match 14 times, the team finishing second has won six times, while teams finishing third and fourth have won the decider three times each.
Makes sense, the best team finishes on top of the ladder and more often than not wins the Grand Final.
Now, leaving TV ratings and revenue streams aside for a moment, if that’s at all possible, perhaps these results are a good argument for reducing the number of teams in the finals to just six teams, as teams finishing seventh and eighth invariably are just cannon fodder for the rest.
Moreover, an eight-team finals structure often sees teams making the finals who really haven’t performed well enough over the season to be there, or to deserve even the slimmest chance of winning the premiership. For instance:
• In 2021, both the Knights and the Titans crept into the top eight with negative points differentials, with the Titans having won just 10 of their 24 games;
• In 2019, the Broncos made the finals in eighth place after winning just 11 of their 24 games, repeating their poor effort of 2008; and
• In 2003, the Dragons made the eight after winning nine and drawing three of their 24 games.
These teams should never have been given the opportunity to win a premiership with performances like that.
Anyway, I can’t see the NRL ever giving up the extra cash generated by an inflated finals series, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the finals extended to the top 10 in the near future, but the takeaway here is that if your team finishes the year in the bottom half of the top eight, 10 or whatever, brace yourself for disappointment.
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