John Longmire is considered a successful coach having led the Sydney Swans to a premiership in 2012 and four grand finals in total.
However, he is now in his 13th season as coach, and I feel that there are signs that he is in his last two years at the helm – whether it is by mutual agreement, or he has been given verbal notice something is up at the Swans.
One of the reasons I feel things are getting serious is Longmire’s all-in strategy in the 2023 trade period.
Four players were added to the club during the trade period, including Brodie Grundy and Taylor Adams – as well as James Jordan and Joel Hamling.
After the 2022 Grand final it was apparent the Sydney team – was weight for weight not strong enough to contend in the most heated of battles. Almost in every position Sydney was lighter or smaller against their direct opponent.
Watching Zack Tuohy smile after he brushed off a Sydney player in the first quarter of the GF and waltz out to the wing, relaxed, with an easy kick into the forward 50, highlighted the difference between Premiership teams and the Swans that day.
Sydney stuck fat in the 2022 draft with a long-term strategy. However, during the 2023 trade period, Longmire made a number of decisions that reversed previous strategies and now clearly has designs to win the premiership in the very short term – even if it means sacrificing some long-term success or leaving his successor with extra work to do.
This brinkmanship will either be considered brilliant within two years or foolhardy.
But be under no doubt the game is on, Sydney must win a premiership in the next two years or Longmire will not be coaching the Swans in 2026.
His tenure has also moved him to that position in the Swans where it is less management team, and more about what Longmire wants.
The recruiting team would not have wanted to move on promising young talent like Hugo Hal-Kahan to make way for some battle-hardened but short-term warriors.
“Horse” Longmire is one of the more successful coaches in the AFL, but he is also one of the longest-serving coaches.
He has helped the Swans to win a premiership and reach four grand finals, but his outsized influence across what are in theory independent departments is also starting to take its toll on the club.
It will be interesting to see how the draft and rookie draft play out. If it is more of the same from the trade period it will be more about whether a player can play now, rather than the best future talent.
But no one ever won a grand final without being brave, so does Longmire go out with a bang, or a whimper?
Pasquale
Roar Rookie
Wrong. Rampe is 3 years older than Hamling. And we have an array of ages spread among our now long list of KPDs: Rampe: 33 Hamling: 30 Melican: 27 Francis: 26 McCartin: 24 Arnold: 24 Edwards: 20 Snell: 18
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Hamling is older than Rampe so you'll have to hope those young ones come to hand quickly.
Antony Pincombe
Roar Rookie
The thing is the young talent is still there for 'ron' and each year more join the list. Three very good draftees this year. We will draft again next year. Cats went down the trade route 4 times to get a premiership & that was far too many. Now their list is either Dad's army or the Cheche
Antony Pincombe
Roar Rookie
Players like Ollie Florent, Sheldrick, McInerney, Campbell, Jordan, McLean, Amartey, Roberts, corey Warner & 'Lizard' Blakey all under 25 and all have played seniors. Some are regulars. The future is bright and we have some real talent in the wings; Green, Schnell, Konstanty (Best small forward in the U18's), Buller, Magor, Arnold (would be A grade fullback at say North or Hawks), Cleary (if he were at a lower club he would walk into a midfield). Getting Adams, Grundy & Hamling gives us a better age profile. While Jordan is a very good YOUNG addition at only 23.
Antony Pincombe
Roar Rookie
I don't think there are too many holes there at all. The defence has held up pretty well under bombardment because the mids have let far too much ball enter the back 50. Opposition forward entries against were one of our worst stats. Grundy & Adams will help the mids win more stoppages & Clearances, therefore letting less ball go into the opposition forward 50. We have not just gotten Hamling, we have recruited Arnold in the mid season draft and he is developing nicely. Schnell in the draft this year is a CHB with huge potential which will be developed under Hamling. Rampe is nearing the end of his career but we have Fox, Ollie Florent, McInerney, Magor, Mitchell, Lloyd, Vickery & Blakey. Magor, Vickery & Mitchell are developing nicely. Mitchell is as hard as nails. Add to that the fact Mill can go back if needed.
Antony Pincombe
Roar Rookie
Retirements hurt Cats badly. Joel Selwood was huge for them. They will be hit with far more retirements at the end of this year. Potentially, Stanley, Touhy, Hawkins, Rohan, Duncan, Guthrie, Dangerfield, Bliclavs & Stewart are all close to retirement. I would say that grouping are all under 3 years away. This means they are slowing down, not producing as much. The Swans had the opposite problem. Youth, and when injury hit there was little in the way of experience on the park to help. Add to that the Swans did not have a key defender for 3 weeks and only one for 6 weeks. Losing most of those games with mills playing on Hawkins. Getting Hamling in the Trade Period, picking up Arnold in the mid season draft & drafting Schnell have helped no end in this area. The trouble with Will Gould is that he was not tall enough to be a key back and not mobile enough to play on smalls. All the new boys are of Key back height. I think the Swans have more up side than Cats. As Cats will lose a lot of players in the coming years & their recruiting in the draft has been lower end. Their middle players are not quite up to it and their depth flags off at the bottom end.
Antony Pincombe
Roar Rookie
Longmire is under pressure to deliver a premiership. Can he do it? does he have the game plan? If he continues to use the long play to a contest or the big bomb into the forward line I'd say no. Because in finals, especially Prelims or the GF, they get picked off by the opposition. If he learns to play smart with shorter, more precise delivery, as happened in their better wins last year & in 2022, there is every indication that he could. As to whether getting Adams 30, Grundy 29 & Hamling 30, is just short term thinking I'm not sure. They all fill roles for the short term but they will also be educating the young Swans. The Swans have drafted a young ruck, Key back & their mids are young and will develop in the next two years. Adams will help guys like Sheldrick, Warner, Rowbottom, Roberts & Gulden develop. Green & Ladhams will benefit from having a top flight ruck like Grundy to compete with at training. The backs will all learn from a premiership Key back in Hamling. Schnell will develop better that way & young players like Tom McCartin will benefit from learning from his experience. This is about developing the young talent to a capacity of being able to take over as much as winning a premiership.
Knackaz
Roar Rookie
Stephens was a dud, a huge waste of #5 pick when we should have drafted Serong. Glad he’s gone, same with Clarke. No dead wood on the list now it seems …
Chanon
Roar Rookie
Dogs intend to only have 2 picks so using it early doesn’t bother us. PS you can’t bundle remaining picks & take them with you into 24’ draft. Happy Days. Still must hurt you threw the kitchen sink & Nort decided to stay. :laughing:
Swanee
Roar Rookie
Swans will be in contention 2024.
Swanee
Roar Rookie
I hope the Swans do go for Croft, and force the Bulldogs to use an earlier pick than they want to. We've already forced them to pay overs for Naughton on a ridiculously long contract! :laughing:
Wikipetia
Roar Rookie
that's the thesis here. i dunno. i suspect part of Grundy is "star power" me, I thought Horse should have jumped to the giants after 2020. bets thing for both clubs, let alone to set off a proper footy rivalry here in Tinseltown all of us millions of Sydney-based supporters of other clubs would have loved it, I reckon.
Bandicoot
Roar Rookie
You're probably right. Horse does need to win a flag in the next couple of years or his tenure may be up. That would be due to his length of coaching without the flag rather than simply trading heavily this year. Then again, maybe one leads to the other.
Vicboy
Roar Rookie
The trades Sydney made were hardly selling the farm. They still have their first pick. Grundy and Adams make them better, and will increase the training standards for the young group. Horse can coach - other than 2016(aforementioned decisions), they probably overachieved getting into GFs. All the team seems to buy in on pressure and commitment. Although I will say that the Castangna, McCreary, etc specialist defensive forward role seems to so important now in allowing Martin, Daicos, Degoey etc more freedom that Heeney is not afforded. I agree that Sydney seems to not get the rub of umpiring decisions in GFs, but do get them at the SCG. If Horse/Sydney were all in, they chase Balta, Collins, McGovern etc and trade picks. I don’t think they panic - but continue to improve from within
Wikipetia
Roar Rookie
One of my daughters has always wanted to play against him and drive him into the mud Our girls should meet.
nics
Roar Rookie
Can't speak for most other clubs obviously, but during my time the Eagles' Premiership teams have either had handy players at both ends (2018 - JK, peak Darling, McGovern, and Schuey) or a dominant midfield (2006 - Judd, Cousins, Kerr). Looking more recently, have a look at Melbourne (dominant midfield + May and Lever), Geelong (dominant backline + Hawkins + Cameron), Collingwood (De Goey, + an excellent team defence).
Roger of Sydney
Roar Rookie
K, Agree on Hayward, he does not do enough and not as strong over head. Heeney still does a lot of getting the hard balls, I think he is played out of position as well but I can't be objective because one of my daughters wants to marry him
Wikipetia
Roar Rookie
It’s a very long tenure between flags. Not many coaches hang on or hang around in that circumstance
Chanon
Roar Rookie
Swans might have a stab at Jordon Croft but he’s comin to the dogs. The father/son fishing well goes from strength to strength. Fortunately the academy players for GC get selected earlier than expected giving the dogs ample points to select the young gun. Regardless of this cause & effect we get a 20% reduction a blessing for all father/son selections. Woof Woof!
Bandicoot
Roar Rookie
Most clubs have not won a flag in the past decade and many have not even played in a GF in the past decade. The Swans haven't done too badly in that time. Let's face it, we had a premiership stolen from us in 2016 by the three wise monkeys in white (or green or blue or whatever colour they wore.