As part of a series profiling the expected Round 1 sides for all 17 NRL clubs in 2024, it’s time to see if the latest salary cap hits will affect Penrith’s plans for a fourth straight Premiership.
The good news for the rest of the NRL is that Penrith have again been weakened by departures after winning the premiership but the bad news is they have a reservoir of talent ready to step up.
Penrith will try to become the first team since St George’s 1956-66 glory run to win four successive Premierships and they will head into Round 1 as the favourites to achieve the rare feat.
The salary cap has already cost them Spencer Leniu, Stephen Crichton and Jack Cogger from last year’s Grand Final side while back-up players Jaeman Salmon, Zac Hosking and Tom Jenkins have also moved on.
Jarome Luai has announced 2024 will be his last season before joining Wests Tigers but these hits to the roster aren’t fatal blows to Penrith’s title chances.
With their nucleus of Nathan Cleary, Dylan Edwards, Isaiah Yeo, James Fisher-Harris, Moses Leota, Brian To’o and Liam Martin signed long term, they will retain title favouritism right up until the day someone knocks them off.
That team was nearly Brisbane last Grand Final but the Panthers proved their champion qualities with their epic comeback win.
They have the only trophy left to win, the World Club Challenge, and a trip to the UK to face Wigan on their schedule before Round 1 but barring a dramatic form slump or major injury to their key players, they remain the team to beat.
Who’s new?
For a team that annually loses top-line talent due to salary cap constraints, the Panthers have made an art form of picking up bargain basement recruits and getting full value for money.
The likes of Cogger, Hosking, Salmon, Sean O’Sullivan, Tyrone Peachey and Paul Momirovski have lobbed at Penrith after being shunted around from club to club and filled their roles with aplomb in providing support to the headline acts.
Daine Laurie returns to the Panthers after an up-and-down stint at the Wests Tigers and will provide cover at five-eighth and fullback while former Raiders half Brad Schneider is the latest playmaker who will look to revive his career as Nathan Cleary’s understudy.
With Luai vacating the No.6 jersey in 2025, Schneider could have an early chance to show he can be Cleary’s next long-term halves partner if he makes the most of whatever opportunities come his way this year.
Canterbury centre Paul Alamoti is another new face and with Crichton’s spot up for grabs, he is also a strong chance of seeing plenty of game time.
Who’s gone?
Crichton’s switch to the Bulldogs will be a tough one for the Panthers to swallow.
The NSW and Samoa representative had a timely knack of coming up with big attacking plays at crucial moments but the lure of a lucrative deal and a shot at playing fullback on a regular basis was too much for him to knock back.
Leniu is another loss that will be almost impossible to replace on the roster – his impact as a bench weapon was the perfect follow-up to Leota and Fisher-Harris setting the early foundation as starting props.
Cogger returning to Newcastle opens the door for Laurie, Schneider and local junior Jack Cole to see more action in the halves when the main duo are unavailable.
Salmon has joined Crichton (and a host of other ex-Panthers players and coach Cameron Ciraldo) at the Bulldogs, young winger Tom Jenkins has linked with the Knights while back-up forwards Chris Smith and Eddie Blacker have been culled from the roster.
Hosking is a late departure in the off-season, accepting a better offer with Canberra after getting a release from the Panthers.
(Photo by Izhar Khan/Getty Images)
Key spots to unlock
Centre is the main dilemma for Ivan Cleary in the countdown to the start of the season.
Alamoti showed plenty at Canterbury last season to suggest he can slot into Crichton’s spot while Peachey and Luke Garner were used there on several occasions in 2023.
NSW under-19 representative Jesse McLean is also in the mix while Taylan May is another option as he works his way back from a serious knee injury which kept him out all last season although he could end up duking it out with Sunia Turuva for a wing berth.
The Grand Final starting pack is likely to remain as is with the interchange spots down to a battle between Lindsay Smith, Garner, Peachey, Hosking, Mavrik Geyer and Matt Eisenhuth with Soni Luke the back-up dummy-half.
Geyer, Liam Henry, Ativalu Lisati and Australian Schoolboys representative Harrison Hassett are also knocking on the door as forwards for the future.
Mavrik Geyer is following in his dad Mark’s footsteps. (Photo by Brett Hemmings/Getty Images)
Round 1 predicted team
1 Dylan Edwards
2 Sunia Turuva
3 Izack Tago
4 Paul Alamoti
5 Brian To’o
6 Jarome Luai
7 Nathan Cleary
8 James Fisher-Harris
9 Mitch Kenny
10 Moses Leota
11 Scott Sorensen
12 Liam Martin
13 Isaah Yeo
Interchange
14 Soni Luke
15 Lindsay Smith
16 Matt Eisenhuth
17 Luke Garner
Other squad members: Brad Schneider, Daine Laurie, Harrison Hassett, Taylan May, Mavrik Geyer, Liam Henry, Jesse McLean, Tyrone Peachey, Jack Cole, Ativalu Lisati.
Panthers
Roar Rookie
Jesse McLean & brother Casey McLean are both seen as future Penrith first graders . Both tall & fast . Possible future wingers , or centres . Won’t be next season for Casey , but may not be too far into the future that we see Jesse at centre? Casey on the wing? Especially as Penrith don’t seem to retain a lot of players .
Panthers
Roar Rookie
Young Mavrik Geyer offers something different. He does have explosive pace & line breaking ability for a forward. A good short kick too. Bellamy didn’t want him at the Storm for no reason.
Panthers
Roar Rookie
Crichton is a top player, but not especially fast either. I’d say that they’ll miss him in defence as much as anything else. If May comes back as good as before & doesn’t do a knee again. He’s actually faster than Crichton. If Cole ends up at 5/8? From the highlight reel, Cole wasn’t run down by anyone. Don’t think Laurie lacks pace ? If he can make a big impact there either.
blacktown leagues
Roar Rookie
Totally agree Mushi. I wonder if Madge would consider Moses at 7 Cleary at 6.He could do worse.
mushi
Roar Guru
The big addition in my mind is how the GF showed they could use cleary. If he's given more free reign like those last 20 minutes then they've upgraded the 6 spot
Albo
Roar Rookie
Panthers & Broncos still look the top 2 to beat in 2024 !
Cam
Roar Rookie
Apparently George Bailey was asked to help select the R1 team. Nathan Cleary will be replacing Spencer Leniu on the bench and will slot into the middle rotation. The magic in Bailey’s work with the clipboard is that he opens up a halfback spot for Jack Cole. Can’t argue with science..
Nat
Roar Guru
Tago reminds me a bit of a young Staggs.
Red Rob
Roar Rookie
Yes given the number of teams there are only so many stars to go around. The best sides are those who have least weak bottom third of their roster.
BigGordon
Roar Rookie
and with a seemingly endless supply of new talent and a coach with enough savvy to use that talent well, me thinks they'll have a lot of success while they continue that search.
Full Credit to the Boys
Roar Rookie
They may have to look at Jesse Maclean for outright pace but I don’t know who he replaces. Turuva is probably the next quickest but you are right, it’s not an especially fast set of backs. Remember Tago last year before his injury was probably the standout centre in the competition for a month or so. That is promising.
SSTID
Roar Rookie
The Panthers are the epiphany of a team always in search of perfection.
Pomoz
Roar Rookie
It has been forgotten just how good Taylan May was in his first full year. Provided he can recover from his injury fully, he will make an excellent centre. Crichton was all class for the Panthers, but May can be a pretty good replacement if given the chance. As for Leniu, Henry is a different style of player and doesn't have the explosiveness and aggression of Leniu. However, he does have an incredible motor and if asked to play in short bursts instead of the long minutes he did in NSW cup, he might be able to offer a loss explosive but more consistent back up then Leniu gave in 2023. Both Luai and Cleary are coming back from surgery in the off season so they will be underdone. I'm predicting a slow start for the Panthers, a bit like 2023.
BigGordon
Roar Rookie
On paper, this seems to be a weaker squad than last year, but I thought the same about that squad compared to 2022 and they still won the lot! I've been going through the various Clubs during this series, trying to come up with teams that could genuinely challenge the Panthers and apart from the Broncos, I just can't see anyone else improving enough. That's not to say any team can't knock off any other team in a GF, but right now, the Panthers seem to have a lock on one Grand Final place and all the other Clubs are playing for the other spot.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
Still deserved favs but nowhere near the certainties of 2023. Crichton is a big out especially in the important games. His record in the big ones is outstanding. A something from nothing kinda guy. They will miss Lenui big time as well. If the Broncs were running the same side as last year , I would make them specials. But they aren't so aren't.
Nat
Roar Guru
Still a very good side and a forward pack that will keep them dominating most clubs. I will be interested to watch how their structure compensates for the lack of speed in the backs. Tago and Alamoti are both young beasts but not the quickest going around. I think Leniu will be missed on rotation and i doubt they run with 2 backrowers on the bench.