Oh, how I love this time of year. The magical period right before the first round of the NRL season. There’s something truly beautiful in the air, and it brings a smile to the dial of all rugby league tragics.
No, it’s not the ‘hope springs eternal’ attitude of all footy fans, who optimistically – or foolishly – believe their team is headed for a great season. Rather, it’s the knowledge that it must be time for my annual fearless predictions for the season.
I’m not sure who gets more excited about this yearly article, yours truly, or the Roarers eager to pounce upon my bold prognostications with disdain and mockery.
Alas, enough with the over-written intro, it’s time to get into the selections.
1. The Raiders will win the wooden spoon
It’s a fairly competitive field for the dreaded wooden spoon in 2024.
Perennial favourites for rugby league’s least coveted ‘award’, the Tigers, have made some solid strides on and off the field for this season, but are probably a year or two away from seeing the benefits.
Benji Marshall. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
The Bulldogs have adopted a – shall we say, “interesting” – strategy of hoping a bunch of utility players can help lift them out of the doldrums. While lastly, perhaps fittingly, the Dragons are many people’s pick to finish dead last.
Yet I’m going outside these expected three clubs.
Despite making the top eight last year, I think Canberra will seriously struggle in 2024. In Jack Wighton, they’ve lost their leader and best player, and haven’t come even remotely close to replacing him. His departure leaves a big hole; one that will see them spiral all the way down to the bottom of the ladder.
2. The Knights will miss the finals
It’s easy to forget, considering their incredible Kalyn Ponga-inspired run at the backend of 2023, but Newcastle were actually hot garbage for the majority of last season. As such, I’m not even sure how fearless this prediction really is.
The Knights fifth-placed finish on the ladder overshadowed the truth that they sat in 14th spot with seven rounds to go.
Amongst their games in those last seven rounds, they hammered the hapless Bulldogs twice for a combined score of 108-6, dusted the equally pathetic Tigers and Dragons, had a bye, beat a non-finals teams (the Dolphins) by 2 points, and lost to the Warriors by 30. So beware the fool’s gold of that eventual ladder finish.
I don’t doubt Ponga’s genius and his ability to lift a team all by himself, but he’s also another head knock away from an extended time on the sidelines, and that’s what would keep me up at night if I was a Novocastrian, because no Ponga equals no chances for the Knights.
3. The Warriors will finish second on the ladder
Have I been overcome by ‘Up the Wahs’ fever? You bet I have.
Speaking of bets, the bookies have New Zealand at equal eighth-best odds to make the top eight in 2024, which suggests some pundits think the Warriors are fringe finals contenders.
History would show that’s probably fair, as the Warriors always seem to disappoint after their ‘good’ years. Yet it overlooks the fact they’ll welcome back Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, who only happens to be a previous winner of the Dally M Medal, awarded to, y’know, the best player in the NRL.
Considering they also have Shaun Johnson, who should have won the Dally M Medal last year, and a solid team across the park – including star forward Addin Fonua-Blake in his last year at the club – and I’m very bullish on the Wahs having another great season.
(Photo by Fiona Goodall/Getty Images)
4. The NSW Blues will win State of Origin
Queensland have won three of the last four series, have a mortgage on Origin passion, invented rugby league, and have the greatest coach in the history of all sports. So please don’t tell me they’ll be underdogs once again this year.
Seriously, how can Maroons and their fans claim underdog status at the start of every series, then by the conclusion, declare NSW will never win because they don’t “get” Origin? Actually, I already know how. It’s because they truly believe the latter. Often belief is all you need in life.
Sadly, I’m not sure NSW do ‘get’ Origin. Which makes this prediction truly fearless. Or stupid.
Either way, I’m picking the Blues to win. Perhaps even in a clean sweep…
5. Harry Grant will win the Dally M
It’s always a risky selection choosing a player to win the Dally M Medal when he has constant competition for points from within his own club.
With superstar Cameron Munster in the halves, and the return of Ryan Papenhuyzen from injury, the Storm are not short of players that poll strongly on the final leaderboard for the NRL’s highest individual honour.
Be that as it may, Grant is an extremely influential and electrifying player, and seeming as he plays hooker, getting his hands on the ball won’t be an issue; something that often harms other great players’ chances of taking home this particular piece of hardware.
Bonus Ladder Prediction
1. Broncos
2. Warriors
3. Panthers
4. Storm
5. Rabbitohs
6. Roosters
7. Cowboys
8. Sharks
9. Sea Eagles
10. Titans
11. Eels
12. Knights
13. Dolphins
14. Bulldogs
15. Dragons
16. Tigers
17. Raiders
criag
Roar Rookie
(Although I should add that I've predicted the same thing for the Bulldogs for a couple of years now!)
Tim Carter
Roar Pro
Here we go: 1. Ricky Stuart to resign or ‘resign’. 2. The Dragons to buy a half from the Bulldogs, Knights, or Storm before Origin 1. 3. The Vegas teams, Penrith, and the teams who receive byes in the first 3 rounds to struggle for the first 6-8 rounds. 4. Souths to miss the finals again. 5. Canterbury will end up unsuccessfully trying to buy their way out of their imbalanced squad issues and will get into big salary cap trouble. 6. No team for PNG
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
It’s 1000% the latter. :laughing:
EagleWal
Roar Rookie
Tooves, Dessie!
Nat
Roar Guru
Having had a look at last years predictions it does seem like a bit more thought went into this one. The SOO one though, is that a prediction or an opportunity for a not so subtle dig without any real care factor? :)
mushi
Roar Guru
He wasn't a mercurial instinctive playmaker, he was the steady hand in that halves pairing with Langer.
Horses for Courses
Roar Rookie
Kevin Walters.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
I was referring more to the changes in management, rather than coaching. But it's a fair point, and a tough brief. I'd suggest Ricky Stuart was more 'cerebral' than 'mercurial', but he's the closest to a playmaking freak who became "break even" as a coach.
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
Definitely haunted. God knows what went on in there, and in that old place on Victoria Road at Gladesville.
mushi
Roar Guru
Interesting you say tigers have made strides off field. I love benji, everyone does. Awesome entertaining player. But who was the last mercurial play making freak that became a break even or better coach? Bob Fulton pre salary cap ?
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Is it funny that I still get weirded out walking through that old hospital when going to Leichhardt?
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
Benji’s reputation will be dragged down the toilet by this Club. I always wondered what happened to all the mental patients when they closed Callan Park Hospital at Rozelle back in 2008. Clearly a lot of them took up Board seats and management roles at the Tigers over the years.
matth
Roar Guru
Spoon: pretty good call, although I suspect the Tigers will just get at the post. Knights: I agree but it all depends on Ponga’s noggin. The Warriors look very very good to me this year. Definite top 4 and second is a possibility. Grant is no chance. The Dally M will be a three horse race between Luke Brooks, Jack Bird and Tyson Gamble … Finally and with only a hint of bias, I am all in on the Dolphins they will shoot right up the ladder to pretty much the same spot as last year. Seriously though, if I had to choose a team to break into the 8 from the lower echelons this year it might just be Dolphins.
criag
Roar Rookie
My fearless predictions: 1) The Bulldogs' rebuild will finally see them finish closer to the 8 than the bottom. 2) Tigers will slip so low on the ladder that they'll end up in the 'Other Sports' section of the paper. 3) Channel Nine will show Steven Seagal-like action movies after their match broadcasts because they don't credit NRL fans with the intellectual capacity to deal with anything else. 4) Someone will finally teach me how to add a paragraph on this page.
johnno 2
Roar Rookie
Yes RYAN, But i'm interested in the round one debacle in the USA. I'll leave my judgement till then. Tigers and Dragons in a fight to make the Christmas pudding with the spoon. Ricky has attitude and a degree of isolation from the market in Sydney so the Raiders will be " also rans " but not bad
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
You forgot to add the laughing emoji. People are going to think you're being serious!
Stewy76
Roar Rookie
I absolutely agree with your Piakura SOO possibility. He is indeed a player to watch and, IMO he more than fills the boots of the aging Capewell. Disagree with other parts of this essay however rakshop.. "Broncs youngsters have peaked too early".. Whhaaart??. Half of them haven't started shaving yet.. My prediction is Kevvie will have them peaking around the 6th of October this year.. :silly:
Stewy76
Roar Rookie
I suppose if you are predicting the cowboys to finish between 10th-12th you are effectively predicting that they will finish 11th?... :silly:
Horses for Courses
Roar Rookie
Thanks for your totally not biased opinion.
EagleWal
Roar Rookie
As predictions go, I cannot see Warriors and Knights backing it up. Both miss the 8. Manly either with or without Tom definitely make the 8 and with Tom will be in the GF. Poor old Tigers will be better but still last.