ANALYSIS: Battle for the gain-line to decide if ‘Tah tough’ Waratahs can go back-to-back against Kiwi teams

The Waratahs’ comprehensive win over the Crusaders was the upset of Super Round, and should be celebrated accordingly, but emotionally fuelled desperation cannot be the driver behind their performances in 2024.

Head coach Darren Coleman and the Waratahs are a few years down the line together and can’t claim underdog status anymore, they must show their time together has accumulated into making them a consistent force in the competition, and that begins against the Highlanders on Friday night.

Charlie Gamble told Stan Sport in the sheds after the game that the driver for the team’s performance, or their so called ‘why’, was to be “Tah tough”.

This mantra showed in the numbers, with an 89 tackle percentage, missing only 19 tackles from 167.

Other moments were not quantifiable on a spreadsheet but definitely made the highlight reels.

Hugh Sinclair’s charge down try on David Havili in the 20th minute or captain Jake Gordon’s runaway try in the 65th minute to secure the game were both special defensive efforts. Tah tough!

Even hooker Mahe Vailanu and Tane Edmed’s efforts to deny Sevu Reece two tries when the pair scampered back to dive on a loose ball over the goal line were signs of toughness and determination.

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Moments and efforts like these were the difference against the reigning champs and will also be in finals footy.

Although finals are a long way off, the Waratahs have an opportunity to set a good foundation against the Highlanders tonight in their first home game of the season.

The men of the deep New Zealand south are a much improved team, with Jaime Joseph’s fingerprints already on the Highlanders after returning from eight years as Japan’s national coach.

Putting the Waratahs side by side with the Highlanders, their stats are almost identical.

They are 12th and 11th for carry metres, 9th and 11th for line breaks, 4th and 3rd for tackle percentage, 3rd and 4th for missed tackles and 3rd and 2nd for turnovers conceded respectively.

There is nothing between these two sides and despite the Waratahs upset win, it’s arguable that the Highlanders have had the tougher road so far.

This notion is only strengthened by the frank assessment that the Crusaders were unable to get out of third gear on Saturday night.

Uncharacteristic handling errors by All Blacks Scott Barrett and Havili at crucial moments summarised their fortunes.

The Highlanders, who challenged the title contenders the Blues in a 37-29 loss, shouldn’t be as forgiving as the stuttering men from Christchurch.

Hugh Sinclair’s charge down effort against David Havili was an example of doing the basics well against the Crusaders. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

While young halves duo Noah Hotham and Tahe Kemara were visibly out of their depth for the Crusaders, Folau Fakatava and Welshman Rhys Patchell were setting the world alight for the Highlanders.

A staunch, rush defence won’t be enough to force Patchell’s hand, nor will it deter Fakatava from being his mercurial best.

Should the Waratahs be able to replicate their drive from the weekend, there are areas they can unsettle the Highlanders.

There is no doubt the ‘Landers are an improved side in 2024 but baring the addition of Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens and human wrecking-ball Timoci Tavatavanawai, they still lack x-factor and punch across the park.

Against the Blues they only had 48 per cent possession but made only 38 gain-line carries, which paled compared to the men from Auckland who managed double at 96. The Blues went through the middle against the Highlanders. Will the Tahs follow suit?

Seeing as the sides are so similar on the stat sheets, Coleman will be looking at how he can increase his team’s own gainline percentage with just 46 gainline carries compared to the Crusaders 75.

For a side laden with Wallabies, it’s not a pretty picture.

But Coleman is perhaps already on the way to remedy this, with Langi Gleeson managing a full 80-minute effort.

He has shown glimpses of being the Waratahs most devastating forward with ball in-hand, but his fitness has long been cited as his Achilles heel, so to get those runs on the board will help the Tahs gain-line figures to improve.

Winning the gain-line battle can have many positive flow-on effects, which could allow a Tane Edmed to unleash weapons like Max Jorgensen and Mark Nawaqanitawase.

Angus Bell and Langi Gleeson will be hugely important for the Waratahs in winning the gainline battle against the Highlanders on Friday night in Sydney. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

While the Waratahs do their bit to get over the gain-line in attack they have a real opportunity to keep the Highlanders on the backfoot.

Their new system of rush defence came under heavy criticism against the Reds for being disjointed and allowing gaps to emerge, but an improved version worked a charm against the Crusaders a week later.

While the whole team swarmed on Crusader carriers for the entirety of the game, certain individuals stood out.

Gamble led the tackle count with 21 for the night, and what the stat sheet didn’t tell you is that in almost each of those tackles there was mongrel, controlled aggression, and genuine desire to force the opposition back.

Similarly, Ned Hanigan personified ‘Tah tough’ when he managed a perfect tackle score of 18 tackles in 29 minutes off the bench. A rampage that started with a thumping first hit on Christian Lio-Willie to dislodge the ball in the 52nd minute.

That effort has earnt him a starting spot ahead of Fergus Lee-Warner who drops to the bench.

Conversely, two of the Highlanders biggest tacklers in captain Billy Harmon and Sean Withy have been dropped to the bench for disciplinary issues.

This selection news alone swings the game in the Tahs’ favour because both teams have played all their games with less possession than their oppositions.

Defence wins championships and that will again be the point of order against the Highlanders.

If the Waratahs can keep the Highlanders to a lower gain line success rate, it may force the Highlanders halves to get creative, opening them up for mistakes.

The Waratahs were opportunists on Saturday, dealing blows with just 41 per cent possession against the Crusaders and they will back themselves to do it again on Friday night. Funnily enough, playing and thriving without the ball was what previously the hallmark of Joseph’s championship side in 2015.

The Tahs’ first home game of the season will come down to is the battle for the gainline and their ability to replicate their round two resolve.

Being ‘Tah tough’ has to mean something, the one percenters like chasing down a kick, getting off the line for a charge down or just making an impact off the bench have to be the rule, not the exception.

The performances must come from somewhere else than “doing it for the coaches”, as Angus Bell said after the Crusaders game. It must come from a place that can be replicated and built into the Waratahs’ ethos.