Team List Tuesday is rarely that exciting, but this week’s edition was a real doozy.
Granted, we already knew most of it from the drip drip of leaks that come out of clubs to test the waters ahead of major selection decisions and the more old school newsgathering that can be attained by simply turning up to training and watching.
What’s that in the halves for Souths? A Dean Hawkins shaped figure where once Lachlan Ilias stood?
And a Newcastle? Nary a Jackson Hastings in sight, we were told, until it turned out that he wasn’t training that day anyway.
Coaches are stuck between a rock and a hard place on these things. Take a player out and they’ve been dropped, dumped, ditched and that’s just the Ds.
A key aspect of their role is three Cs – competitiveness, cohesion and confidence – and, when selecting squads, it’s always a balancing act.
They want their players to know that nobody is safe and good showings are required, but also not to move the team around too much and not to engender a fear of failure that leads to lack of risk-taking.
In that context, ‘dropped’ doesn’t really work, because there are plenty of moving parts and, in the first week of the season, plenty of scope to move them around now in order to gain the best performance later.
Coaches generally know who their best players are, which is why they picked them from Round 1 in the first place, and who they want on the field when the whips get cracking.
But if you’re 0-2 after two games, however, then you need to be seen to do something both to take the pressure off yourself – if it’s not the players, it’s you, in the eyes of the media and fans – but also to focus the group’s minds and elevate collective performance.
For Jason Demetriou at Souths, who has dealt with a completely needless off-field issue with one of his key players, Latrell Mitchell, which in turn rehashed a narrative that some players are above criticism, it’s a pretty easy move to take control and move an important player out of the team.
Is that the correct decision? Who knows. We’ll find out.
Is Lachlan Ilias the best half Souths have? Given that he was selected on every available occasion in the number 7 jumper for the previous 52 matches, you’d have to say that Souths think he is.
Hawkins won NSW Cup Player of the Year last season and is probably too good for second grade, but he’s older than Ilias and has been in the system just as long, but had never been chosen above him until this week.
We don’t know the discussions at the selection table and what specific parameters Ilias is being asked to hit, and it is a lot easier to swap him out when you have someone like Hawkins, who has done all the things you would want your second string guy to do.
Ilias wasn’t the reason that Souths lost to Manly in Vegas, and he wasn’t the reason they lost to Brisbane last Thursday night.
He is, however, the easiest player to drop from the stacked spine of Mitchell, Cody Walker and Damien Cook.
If making an example of him gets a message to the others, then that short term pain might end up in long term gain.
In that case, ‘dropped’ probably isn’t the word to use. ‘Made an example of’ doesn’t sound any better, but if communicated openly to the individual, then it could benefit all parties.
Ilias might be being told that he needs to up his game, and reminded of the privilege of playing NRL by a week in reggies, or it might be that he is being used as a scapegoat for the other players in the side, a message that nobody is safe.
Jason Demetriou. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
If Ilias buys in, then Demetriou might have his cake and eat in terms of kicking everyone up the backside without smashing the confidence of one of the Bunnies’ most important players and also rewarding Hawkins, who has earned his crack.
Ilias responded to his only prior case of adversity successfully when hooked in his rookie year, so the precedent suggests that his character would respond to that treatment.
South Sydney’s next three fixtures are at home against the Bulldogs, Warriors and Sharks before a bye, so now would be as good a time as any to make the big move.
Imagine, however, that Hawkins is a worse player than Ilias, which, to reiterate, is what they thought until very recently indeed.
Not only has the side suffered a needless upheaval, they have also done so at a time that risks losing eminently winnable fixtures.
This is the risk that Demetriou is taking, and he’ll be aware of that.
We saw this played out in bold type last year with the Roosters.
Trent Robinson dropped Sam Walker to make a point about his levels and cast it as that rather than him being dropped. The media said he’d been dropped, but Trent never did and neither did Walker.
The half then suffered an injury and for it to become abundantly clear that the first grade attack had a big, creative hole in it that Walker would have been perfect to fill.
Obviously, we don’t know if he would have got injured had he not been playing reggies, but the less Walker played, the more clear it was that he had not been the problem and that, in truth, the Roosters would happily have taken some defensive deficiencies to add his huge attacking upside.
When he came back, it’s beyond doubt that they were a better side and, indeed, Walker was a better player for it. His showings at the back end when it mattered most suggested that the call was right from Robinson.
Adam O’Brien. (Photo by Tony Feder/Getty Images)
The case in Newcastle is even more complex.
Hastings absolutely wasn’t the reason they lost in Round 1 or Round 2 and he was one of the key reasons why they were so good at the end of 2023.
Adam O’Brien has a similar situation to Demetriou in that the next guy up is enticing, with Jack Cogger off the back of a Grand Final win with Penrith, and thus it’s an easy call to make to swap them in.
The Knights find themselves in a bind created by their own success.
They signed Cogger when they were meandering and mediocre last year, probably with the intention of playing him at 6 and Hastings at 7 in 2024, only for the team to click and go on an insane run that made Tyson Gamble undroppable at five eighth.
On talent alone, it probably should have been the 6 who dropped out, but it would be unfair in the extreme for that to happen on form.
They also signed another half, Will Pryce, at a time when they were trying to make Kalyn Ponga into a five eighth, probably with the idea that the Englishman start life in the NRL as a fullback where he could attack freely with less worries about his defence.
By the time they needed a new half, Cogger, they no longer needed a fullback, because Ponga won the Dally M while playing that position.
It’s unbalanced the roster, as they are paying far too much for those positions without actually knowing who the best option is.
It’s good to have options, but it’s better to have a clear hierarchy that you can work through.
Throw in that Jayden Brailey, their captain and theoretically best hooker, is back from injury and the plan from Rounds 1 & 2, simply carrying an unneccesary half utility on the bench, doesn’t work either.
(Photo by Richard Sellers/PA Images via Getty Images)
Hastings goes, but doesn’t really deserve it.
He is, however, exactly the sort of character who would respond to this call positively.
Having flamed out of the NRL the first time around and ended up in the Super League, he revitalised his career by taking on responsibility, being the best version of himself and winning Man of Steel with unfashionable Salford, then a Minor Premiership with Wigan.
When faced with massive adversity, Hastings flourished and became the player who earned a move back to the NRL, then a better move to Newcastle, then lead the Knights to one of their best finishes in years.
There’s good grounds for both Demetriou or O’Brien trying to extract performances from other players by using guys they know can take it on personality level, while also attempting to stoke that righteous fire within.
What we don’t get, however, is the counterfactual of what might have happened by simply doing nothing at all.
Two games is no sample size to work off as far as judging performances, but all the data would suggest that changing the side too much does have a very negative effect on cohesion and, ultimately, results.
Not only has the side suffered a needless upheaval, they have also done so at a time that risks losing eminently winnable fixtures.
Newcastle get Melbourne this weekend with both of their halves out – not by choice – and could sneak a result.
That might justify the decision making, but will it make them better long term?
For both sides, who should have aspirations of finishing in the top eight, then the most important team selection is the one that you can put on the field in the finals, which likely includes both Hastings and Ilias.
Both play roles that often foreground others, notably Ponga, Mitchell and Walker, and it will be interesting to see how their replacements step into that specific tactical job.
It might be a case of not knowing what you have lost until it’s gone for Demetriou and O’Brien.
Rolling the dice is their prerogative as far as team selection is concerned, and it might have the desired effect in kickstarting other members of the team, giving hungry guys a deserved chance and shocking the systems of two blokes that have the personality types to respond well.
There’s an argument that making such moves now, early on, will send the message at a time when it can still make a difference while also letting the coach reintegrate their player down the line.
If it works out, then both coaches will have positively impacted their team through being proactive.
If it doesn’t, it’ll look like they panicked, flailed about and interrupted team cohesion at a time when building it should be a high priority.
The coaches have made their decisions for now, and the team lists this week should be seen in those terms. Just don’t call it dropped.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
I’m pointing out a game head to head where on a more work rate stat, he out performed Walsh and he’s still criticised. You’d expect bigger bodies to dominate post contact meters absolutely. But general run meters requires covering more ground
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Not really sure that run metres and especially post contact metres are useful metrics to compare Walsh's workrate and effectiveness. Walsh is a small body. Mitchell is a big body and should be making a lot more metres per game. He's averaging 119 so far this season (the same as tiny Blake Taafe who is being pilloried) which is 50% - 60% less than the other elite fullbacks Trbojevic, Tedesco and Edwards. His tackle effectiveness this season is at 75% - compared to Walsh's 86% - again you'd expect the bigger bodied (and more experienced) player to be dominating this stat. Surely that raises some questions about fitness and effort?
Big Mig
Roar Rookie
Fortunately for Ilias he is of Greek origin not Roman, as the practice of ‘decimation” would have been far more brutal than a stint in reserve grade. Let's hope Ilias comes back all the better for it.
Horses for Courses
Roar Rookie
Me and my Supercoach team pray that you are right about the 50-60mins.
Horses for Courses
Roar Rookie
Hawkins has played NRL before.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
So Ilias was decimated ? Sounds about right.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
TB I see so many halves these days who are on auto pilot. The first thing a half must do is keep looking . Look not every half is a JT or a Sterlo but look at those guys play. If JTs head bobbed around any more it would have fallen off. He never stopped looking for something to take advantage of. Stay in the moment should be the first thing you teach a half-back. Illias rhough is an automaton. Coached to within an inch of his life and never allowed to develop a feel for the game. I think he has been ruined.
criag
Roar Rookie
It'd be less emotive if the media just said 'not picked'. Players are not meant to have the luxury of being automatically picked each week, they are supposed to earn it, and it's up to the coach - whether they're right or wrong - to pick the squad he thinks is best for the team. Players are of course disappointed, but the good ones just get on with the job of fighting their way back. Should be interesting watching the four halves in the Rabbitohs-Roosters game. One on NRL debut, another with very little starting line-up experience.
Good Grief
Roar Rookie
Latrell has a massive boot, maybe his involvement could be increased by using him for yardage kicks.
Good Grief
Roar Rookie
Two teams in very different circumstances. End of season 2023 Newcastle seemed to have their best 17 settled and firing on all cylinders with their deck chair shuffling positional experiments behind them. There didn’t seem to be cause for doubt or second guessing so why muck around with combinations that were working well - get Ponga into a pair of boots with slightly longer studs, pick and stick. Souths position was the opposite, end of Season 2023 was a nosedive from their first third of the season as an unstoppable try scoring machine. I don’t think Souths have a weak pack, but they haven’t been great so far this season. Whatever else happens, the coach needs more from his forwards… and a better kicking performance from his halves.
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Maybe. I'm not as sold on Cogger as everyone else here seems to be. The sample size is too small. While he played a role in the Panthers GF win, the more pivotal factor was that Cleary was moved from first receiver to second receiver. Cogger didn't have to steer the team around (Cleary was still the general) and he was operating off the back of a much more dominant pack than the Knights are currently able to muster. Happy to be proven wrong on this one, but not convinced we'll see much of a change in Knights results with Cogger at 7.
Nathan Absalom
Roar Guru
Totally, and the main reason he didn't insert himself is that everyone else kept dropping the ball. But for some people their reputation precedes them I guess.
BigGordon
Roar Rookie
I think there are a lot of attitudinal issues only the players themselves can deal with. Way better as you say to stay loyal, keep them on the field and ask them to really focus on playing good footy for 80 minutes.
SSTID
Roar Rookie
I am assuming this is directed to me, I get a bit confused with the inserting as to who is replying to who. The auto-direct to replies also is not working. To re-iterate a few points I have made in the past and to pick up on some suggestions by others: # Move Mitchell to centre and give him free reign in attack and move AJ or Wighton (my preference) back to fullback. # Walker, I don't know what has happened to him. He is either getting older, or other teams are wising up to him, but I think he now needs to play a bit deeper in attack to give himself more space and time. I do think he gets criticised for too many things, some fairly, some unfairly. Sure he is on the angry pill, but I believe that he is just hyper-competitive and he is always trying something and sometimes he just goes too far when a more conservative approach may be a better option. # Richard Kennar is not a first grade NRL player. He will be our weak link whilst he remains in the centres. Whether Wighton is the answer I don't know. I wasn't for his signing - he is a big body, but I have not seen anything in the past that says to me that he is a creative player who can win matches, other than barge over close to the line. # I think Cook deserves more bench time. Not because he is playing bad, but because he has taken it upon himself to spark the attack and he is getting at the end of his career, so this must drain him. Give more game time to his eventual replacement. Win-Win given we have no chance this year. # Totola, Koloamatangi and Havili have been the biggest disappointment to me. Two years ago I thought all 3 were good players, quietly going about their work with high efficiency. But now I think their effort and efficiency have dropped off. 2 of these could be on the chopping block. JD doesn't give enough game time to the reserve forwards to see what they are made of, I think that should change this year. # At some stage soon JD will need to make decisions as to what forward players he is wishing to keep and which ones to let go. The ones he decides to let go should be the one dropped to NSW Cup. Again, we are not going to get into the 8 this year - so lets experiment and blood new players in the big league. #Arrow and Graham lost to long term injuries will be a big blow, but you can't do anything about that. # For me, especially last year, it seem to me that Souths had mental issues that would benefit from a good sport psychologist. I am sure a profession team such as Souths would have one on board. If so, s/he needs to work a bit harder. # As someone else said, Penrith forwards are the new benchmark of the modern forward. Big, fast, aggressive, good in attack, defence, tackle breaks and offloads. That is what we should be trying to emulate.
Cam
Roar Rookie
Ilias is on $300k a year, which allows them to spend massive on Wighton, Latrell, Cook, Murray and Walker. He isn't going to perform like a Cleary, Hughes or Nico Hynes, because they are $1m a year players. If they wanted a better half, don't spend $3m to get a centre in Jack Wighton. Take that money and go to market for a half. If they were fair dinkum, they probably could have got Ben Hunt with $3m (compensation and a player swap for the Dragons). The Wighton contract feels more like Latrell wanting to get his cousin a deal at the club.
Cam
Roar Rookie
It’s a good question. Sometimes dropping a particular player seems obvious if they are performing poorly, they are personally responsible for losses or if there is a player from outside the team who are demanding selection. The dropping of Ilias doesn’t feel like this. Some coaches just double down and back their system and the players they are using to eventually turn results around. I personally prefer this approach, it shows loyalty to the players and team and creates an environment of stability. You only have to look at Eddie Jones and his failed Wallaby tenure to see what chopping and changing does to a team’s spirit and results.
Cam
Roar Rookie
Yep, I think you are on track here. Communication is probably the other thing that differentiates the good coaches from the blokes who get sacked in R14. Judging by Mansour’s interview and Sam Burgess walking away from the club, and the rubbish cliches dished up in his presser this morning, Demetriou might come up short here. Almost every Storm player asked about Bellamy, will at some point mention his ability to communicate and the absolute open-door policy to talk honestly with the coach. No spin, no BS, just open and honest communication.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Big guess, but I’m not sure Hosking doesn’t start anyway. Whitehead coming back from a calf strain and Stuart has effectively replaced a middle with Whitehead, so Elliott will have to spend some time in the middle At worst I think Hosking still gets 50-60 minutes. I’m probably more interested from a SuperCoach perspective I was doing some stuff while the Roosters v Manly game was on so only had half an eye on it. On face value the Wong dropping seems daft? Too many mouths in the Roosters back row?
souvalis
Roar Rookie
The punting of Wong, Bud Sullivan after less than an hour, and Dally M leader or should be, Hosking haven't been given the same kind of attention yet are just as interesting.
Cam
Roar Rookie
The historical term decimate springs to mind. The Romans found killing every tenth man from a failing Legion worked wonders to motivate the group. Perhaps this is what Demetriou has in mind by dropping a player who clearly hasn’t been responsible for the losses. If the public execution forces a refocus and squeezes 10% more effort from the group, than he is justified in the decision. Interesting to mention, there had been a whisper that the Souths leadership group pushed for the sacking, which incidentally Demetriou didn’t deny. When pressed, he instead gave this “that’s inside information,” which would pretty much confirm the rumour as true. So you could infer a couple of things here, Demetriou is once again allowing the team to dictate policy (the reason Sam Burgess quit the club), and the leadership are jumping in to offer a scapegoat before the spotlight falls on themselves. Because it wasn’t Ilias who let Payne Haas and Carrigan stroll through the middle last week. It’s the Souths forwards who missed 25 tackles and failed to run for 100m. It is their middles that can’t generate any momentum for their halves to work off.