Coaching Queensland and coaching New South Wales might look like similar jobs, but are actually vastly different.
The Maroons boss tends to work off a more limited layer pool but benefits from a more supportive environment, whereas the Blues equivalent is presented with a plethora of options and a host of people immediately looking to get stuck in if their preferred one doesn’t get chosen.
It’s the blessing and the curse, and one that Michael Maguire is currently grappling with. He’ll be pencilling in names now, and if he’s smart, he’ll be starting from 1-17.
That’s because the fullback is where a footy team begins these days, not least because the style of 1 picked goes a long way to defining how the side will play.
Moreover, when you have the other vacancies that NSW do – wing, centre, five eighth and backrow – the way you want your fullback to play really sets the tone.
Queensland don’t have this issue. They have a creative fullback, Reece Walsh, and should anything happen to him, they’d immediately throw in Kalyn Ponga, a very similar player.
Ditto at five eighth, where Cam Munster could be replaced by Tom Dearden, also a big-bodied runner, or Ezra Mam, a similarly direct player.
At halfback, if wily old veteran Daly Cherry-Evans were to go down, wily old veteran Ben Hunt would step in.
Realistically only at hooker, where Harry Grant would likely give way to Reed Mahoney, would any stylistic change occur, but even then, they could keep continuity by calling up Billy Walters.
For NSW, however, anything goes.
Much as there are calls for James Tedesco to be replaced, he is in decent nick and represents the best all-rounder in terms of safety, yardage and attacking threat.
Were he to be dropped, it would likely be a powerplay move from the coach to signal a new era rather than form, because his form is better than it has been for several years.
There would then be a clamour for Dylan Edwards to get the gig, but that would force the Blues to go into the Panthers-lite style of football that they should be trying to get away from, because good as the Penrith 1 is, he really only works in that system.
There won’t be much campaign for Tom Trbojevic to get the role, given how well he transitioned to centre in previous appearances, though he’s probably the next best after Tedesco, if he isn’t straight up the best fullback available.
Edwards backers love to quote his enormous running metre stats, but like most people who don’t understand how stats work in rugby league, there are two fallacies at work.
First is the lack of understanding of where stats fit within a team system and the second is using volume data – big numbers sound better, right? – when incident data is far more relevant.
Edwards is second only to Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad on average metres per game with Brian To’o in third place. Turbo is fifth, Tedesco 13th.
On post-contact, however, Edwards is last of the three NSW options and his pre-contact metres – aka the free ones he gets – tell the tale.
Take out the kick returns and suddenly it’s Tedesco first, Turbo second and Edwards last in the ranking.
Tedesco and Trbojevic are essentially the same as a yardage prospect, while Edwards is actually the worst when you control for the structural advantages that he gets by dint of playing for the Panthers.
Perhaps at better way of thinking of it would not be how much Edwards gains, but what Tedesco and Trbojevic lose: how many more metres would they get if they taking runs from behind a dominant pack that forced an opponent into a long kick?
Turbo is already third among fullbacks, and that’s from a Manly side that is conceding far more ground, which means opponents get better kicks, which gives him less chance to return them for free metres.
In Origin, where you’d expect the battle to be a lot more balanced than the average Panthers game is, who would you rather have?
That’s the question Maguire has to answer, because on the other aspects, Edwards is a clear third best.
He creates a break once every 51 possessions, compared to every 32 for Turbo and 27 for Teddy.
He makes a break himself once every 102 possessions, compared to 49 for Teddy and 40 for Turbo.
The only area Edwards is a clear statistical leader is in errors, of which he has the fewest, but that is a double edged sword as far as fullbacks are concerned.
His defensive error rate is very low – he defuses bombs at the highest rate and catches the most kicks on the full – but his attacking error rate is also very low, which is not a good thing.
There’s a pretty much straight line correlation between attacking errors and attacking success, with the current top five in the comp for mistakes being Zac Lomax, Turbo, Hunt, Izack Tago and Reece Walsh. It’s a club you want to be in.
It’s a philosophical question for Maguire to answer.
Invariably he’ll want to do the usual complete high, keep it tight game plan that Origin coaches love, but he’ll also want a player capable of breaking open a tight game when the moment comes.
Is that Edwards, Trbojevic or Tedesco? The stats are pretty clear.
There is also the flow on effect that comes from who your fullback is.
We know that Nathan Cleary will be the 7 and, given Cameron Murray’s injury, it would be amazing were Isaah Yeo not the 13. Api Koroisau, if fit, will almost certainly be the 9, at least to start the game.
If Edwards then comes in at 1, you might as well pick Jarome Luai at five eighth and go back to being the Penrith Blues that has lost the last two series, but with another extra part.
To’o, Stephen Crichton and Liam Martin are all in too, and you might end up with Matt Burton at centre, which would be nine from the Panthers system of the 17.
Alternatively, if Trbojevic was picked at 1, Madge could dial into the big, ‘orrible lot style of play.
Stick Edwards on a wing, like the Kangaroos did, or give it to Zac Lomax as an even bigger option.
Throw Jack Wighton into the centres alongside Crichton, move Burton to five eighth and you’ve got a 1-6 that is all yardage, running power and size, plus a left-right kicking combination with Cleary.
That would allow for a hooker and three forwards on the bench, which in turn likely enables Madge to pick both Jake Trbojevic and Cam McInnes as specialist defenders and rotate high impact, low minute props. Power game, anyone?
What about speed?
Teddy at the back, Turbo in the centres, Josh Addo-Carr on a wing and Nicho Hynes in the 6 opens up that expansive kind of game, more in keeping with what the NRL has looked like in 2024.
If Madge things Origin will be like that, he could use the likes of Hudson Young, Haumole Olakau’atu and Keaon Koloamatangi all strike backrow options.
All of it, of course, starts from the back. That will dictate how the sets start, where the threat lies and how NSW think they will win. It’s Madge’s biggest call.
Cam
Roar Rookie
Turbo, Crichton and Bradman Best would be well in front of Wighton. And I'd probably have him behind Lomax, Kiraz, Garrick, Tago, Meaney and Staggs. He is front of Jack Bird, so there's that..
Badseed
Roar Rookie
Sorry but it’s in Tedesco’s contract that he will be selected until his television contract kicks in.
Badseed
Roar Rookie
Perfect. Always happy when Manly players aren’t good enough.
Badseed
Roar Rookie
Garrick and Talau have been terrible in defence. Turbo can’t be cleaning up for them all the time.
Bloke7
Roar Rookie
That's my feeling too. It's not about how often they pass but the moments they choose to pass or not. In origin last year there were a few too many moments it felt Teddy cost us a try by not passing. Seen the same every roosters game I've seen this year.
NorthNarra
Roar Rookie
As a Manly tragic I would pefer none of our players do Origin. Turbo is a game changer in any Origin slot, wing, center or FB. End of the day Turbo will extend in Origin because that is who he is. Only real variable is if he gets injured.
NQR
Roar Rookie
Sorry I meant Drinky. That Edwards is a dud. Only good playing behind Cleary is his claim to fame.
NQR
Roar Rookie
Come on you Blue boys you need to be looking at Drinkwater’s stats. He’s playing in a rubbish team but bust tackles, averages 2 less meters a carry than Teddy and Turbo, leads them in TA, hell he has 17 offloads to Teddy’s 2 with less carries, makes and misses tackles the same as Edwards. The stats don’t lie boys. Come on NSW pick Stinky.
Once upon a Knight
Roar Rookie
Please pick Teddy... He was QLD best player last year in game 1 and 2 and chose to chase run meters instead of running of his halves.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Everybody loves Reed
Footy Franks
Roar Rookie
I’m a Roosters fan but yeah Dylan Or Turbo should get the 1 for nsw. Tedesco still going strong though.
CW Moss
Roar Rookie
What about who was there when we won most recently? Teddy, Turbo and Cleary. :stoked:
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
It's funny how Manly have got three players who excel at SOO while the trophy cabinet gathers dust. Maybe the big O excels as well. He should. I liked it better when Manly players looked a bit out of sorts in SOO but were winning the odd comp. Saints had a spell when they were doing well at SOO but not where it counts.
Nat
Roar Guru
NSW can pick whomever they like but be warned that Lindsay Collins will be chasing down everything. :stoked:
Nat
Roar Guru
Pick what’s available and cheer them home. Sounds like how I got the bride. Small towns, you know…
eagleJack
Roar Guru
I think there are a few things at play with Turbo defensively. Namely Turbo doing too much, not trusting his inside men, and having to compensate for Ruben Garrick not adjusting very well to life in the centres. For the Hudson Young winning try on the weekend we had Turbo inexplicably standing near the posts, in the defensive line behind the PTB, when we all knew a kick out wide was coming. By the time he got out wide it was all too late. He needed to trust his inside men and start behind the defensive line. But, unfortunately there was a huge gap between Paseka and Lawton that he needed to fill. In attack Turbo has always been the voice for Croker in determining the plays to run. But this year we've seen him at first receiver far more often as a link man. I don't think he needs to be there. I'm far more concerned with his lazy PTBs than anything else. Too often he loses the ball after a break. But you could possibly put it all down to him just being buggered. The guy is everywhere. I wouldn't have him at fullback for the Blues because I think he's a massive strength playing in the centres with Teddy at the back. But I also think fullback is where you'd see him shine at rep level. He'd be surrounded by the best and could just concentrate on his own job.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Ha ! Thats Baz's new best mate ! :laughing:
Mike Meehall Wood
Editor
I wish there was a stat on organisation but there isn't really. Edwards might well be excellent at it but from what you hear from people, it might be Tedesco's best quality.
Mike Meehall Wood
Editor
Every player plays injury all the time pretty much. I'd love him not to play at all (as someone who cares if Manly win, but doesn't give a stuff about NSW) but it won't factor in for a second. If he's playing for Manly he'll be playing for NSW.
Mike Meehall Wood
Editor
No worries, always have spare stats to throw in so might as well share em.