Queensland Reds
24
Match Complete
Brumbies
22
| J. O'Connor |  | 76 | ||
| J. O'Connor | | 69 | ||
| J. Petaia |  | 64 | ||
| 55 |  | N. Lolesio | ||
| 53 | | T. Wright | ||
| J. O'Connor | | 51 | ||
| J. Flook | | 49 | ||
| 40 | | N. White | ||
| J. O'Connor | | 30 | ||
| J. O'Connor | | 21 | ||
| 15 | | N. Lolesio | ||
| 14 | | T. Banks | ||
| 5 | | F. Fainga'a |
| 2 | Tries | 3 | ||
| 1 | Conversions | 2 | ||
| 4 | Penalty Goals | 1 | ||
| 0 | Field Goals | 0 |
The Reds host the Brumbies Saturday evening at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Join The Roar for live scores and a blog of the match, starting from 7:45pm (AEST).
The Reds are on a roll. They rolled the Rebels comfortably last week, which was somewhat unexpected. What was also unexpected was that the Brumbies were a breath away from losing to the bottom-feeder Waratahs. So today, it looks like the Brumbies are staring down the barrel of a gun.
Last week, the Reds had their best game since the days of Ewen McKenzie. Before last week, many of their matches this season were narrowly won. Last week, they kept the Rebels on the back foot. They took advantage of errors. They positioned their forwards, especially their traditionally more ‘stodgy’ backrowers, to be more dynamic.
The Brumbies’ backrowers have been dynamic under Dan McKellar’s tutelage. Their goal, ostensibly, is to facilitate a lot of points. It is quite common so far for them to score over 30 points per match. They failed to do that last week, primarily due to the distinct lack of possession.
Despite their subpar results, McKellar retained most of last week’s players. A notable change is the reintroduction of the Brumbies captain Allan Alaalatoa, who will scrummage against Wallaby-mate Taniela Tupou. His forwards, along with most of his backline, will compete not only for the win – they are vying for Wallaby selection.
Brad Thorn is rolling in the same players as last week. They feel good. They smell blood. They have seen the Waratahs corner the Brumbies’ attackers, and probably think they can do a better job.
There are great match-ups across the park, almost without exception. The one I will be looking out for, are the ‘special forces’ or backrow and the halves. The strength and style of both teams are different at these positions and will be pivotal to this game’s results. The other is the scrum.
Prediction
The last time the Brumbies visited Suncorp Stadium, they were handsomely defeated by the Queenslanders. I would not hazard to predict a similar result today. But the Reds are playing well. The Brumbies have not won in Brisbane since 2014.
So unless either side’s set-piece falls apart, it will be close. I think however, the Brumbies see this match as a must-win and have a good chance to clinch it against the odds.
Join The Roar for live scores and a blog of the match, starting from 7:45pm (AEST).
Game information
Kick-off: 7:45pm (AEST)
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
TV: Channel Nine
Live stream: Stan Sport
Betting: Reds $1.75, Brumbies $2.08 (odds via PlayUp)
Teams
Reds
Bryce Hegarty, Jordan Petaia, Hunter Paisami, Hamish Stewart, Jock Campbell, James O’Connor (captain), Tate McDermott, Harry Wilson, Fraser McReight, Angus Scott-Young, Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Ryan Smith, Taniela Tupou, Brandon Paenga-Amosa, Feao Fotuaika
Reserves: Alex Mafi, Richie Asiata, Zane Nonggorr, Seru Uru, Liam Wright, Kalani Thomas, Josh Flook, Filipo Daugunu
Brumbies
Tom Banks, Andy Muirhead, Len Ikitau, Irae Simone, Tom Wright, Noah Lolesio, Nic White, Pete Samu, Tom Cusack, Rob Valetini, Cadeyrn Neville, Darcy Swain, Allan Alaalatoa (captain), Folau Fainga’a, James Slipper
Reserves: Lachlan Lonergan, Scott Sio, Sefo Kautai, Nick Frost, James Tucker, Ryan Lonergan, Bayley Kuenzle, Mack Hansen
Rolando
Roar Rookie
Reds won off the back of their backs. Brumbies almost won off the back of the forwards. Brum forwards a lot stronger, including in attack, than Reds. Wilson not big/strong enough in attack. Valentini and Neville and Samu impose themselves. Brums appeared to not retreat behind offside line sometimes which stifled Reds attack. Also Brumbies second player to ruck lies on top of tackler which prevents opposition player rolling away. Slipper cannot be a starting LH prop for WB’s. AAA had a strong game. Does he have experience at LH as that might solve a problem for WB’s.
Honest Max
Roar Rookie
How many rucks did they hit? There’s a data fallacy that commonly occurs when one has only a few data points. Often one tends to place higher importance on the little data they do have and end up with incorrect insights. Using my eyes, my opinion is that Tupou is the best player in the country, let alone the best THP.
jeznez
Roar Guru
Fotu’s? Born in NZ but schooled on the Goldy. Got a younger brother in the NRL. He came into the Reds i think three seasons ago. At the time hopelessly out of shape but scrummed well. He’s looked good in very limited opportunities due to injuries ever since his debut. Was predominantly a loose head in his earlier caps until this season where he was tried at tight. He shows promise on both sides but with Tupou on the other and Nonggorr behind I’m glad they’ve shifted him back to loose. Loved his effort there last night. That scrum he sheared Alaalatoa off was fantastic.
Honest Max
Roar Rookie
Those that question Tupou’s work ethic are obviously new to the sport. The ground he covers isn’t normal. Because of his pace and fitness he plays wider than his slower, less aerobically blessed peers. He also plays a distributor role and is able to suck in defenders to give others space. He’s the best player in Australia and by the end of the RWC cycle will be an international superstar. He’s on track for the Wallaby best ever XV and an all time great.
Honest Max
Roar Rookie
Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a gun. But White is like a Saffer scrumhalf - he’s running the show from the base of the ruck. I think Lonergan is in exactly the right place to learn his trade. I reckon he’ll play a heap of tests.
Old One Eye
Guest
Do you know anything about his background Jez.?
Bobby
Roar Rookie
No, stats are stats. Look at his previous games at defence as well. Anyway DR and his mate Scott will have the final say irresoective of my views or the “Start Taniela” Brigade. We shall see ! Happy to eat a bit of humble pie, are you?
The Late News
Roar Rookie
Thanks for your concern Rob...its quite touching. No certainly wasn't a belonging of the ex wife.
numpty
Roar Rookie
So you acknowledge his scrummaging by saying its thanks to the 16th man??? Nice. Nella had a total of 15 involvements, AAA 17. Add the scrum dominance and the 6 defenders beaten when carrying compared to zip and the objective facts show a pretty clear outcome. :cricket:
numpty
Roar Rookie
He was listed in the PONI squad so clearly Rennie is looking at him
James GC
Roar Rookie
I think that is what is missing from the Rebels for MT, you can't play off 9 with Powell and he doesn't have a second playmaker anywhere in that backline. They are trying to use Hodge for that role just that he is not very good at it. I agree if you slot MT into 12 with White and JOC he will go well.
Mo
Guest
Toomua Joc ie dual 12s does work. Joc can get points scored. And with white there you can play off 9 too. Between them they add up up to a good test 9 10 12.
James GC
Roar Rookie
I haven't rated Hegarty coming off the bench in games into the centres he add zero impact, the last two games starting from FB he has looked great and man he has some wheels on him.
Mo
Guest
Unless they want to borrow his phone
James GC
Roar Rookie
I really rate Lonegrain, he isn't as marshalling as White but he is a quality HB.
James GC
Roar Rookie
"Thats pretty rare from him" is one of his fav throw away lines as if he hasn't been watching the player all year.
James GC
Roar Rookie
Should Naisarani even be in the picture at this point, he has been sidelined all year hard to make a case if you're not playing.
PeterK
Roar Guru
stats are misleading though. Have you looked at the context of TT's missed tackles? He is far more mobile than AAA so he was covering a wider area. An example one of his misses was in the corner, AAA would not get close enough to it being called a missed tackle but TT was fast enough to get there but was unable to put him out.
numpty
Roar Rookie
Not a bad shout. I'd say valetini is stronger defensively, Wilson in attack. Will depend on who else is in the equation to get the balance right. Wright, naisarani and samu probably the Ying to their yang's. Wright defensive the other two more attacking.
Rod Winterton
Guest
Sitting in the stands last night I noticed a tactic that paid early dividends for the Brumbies and that is to drop a player on top of the tackler to prevent them rolling away. White protests loudly as only he can do and a penalty is awarded. It worked a couple of times.