NRL mid-season review and revised predictions (Part 1)

Before the start of the 2017 National Rugby League season, I wrote a preview pondereding many long-term storylines that were plausible at the time.

Before the start of the second half of the regular season, let’s revisit my assessments, determine how each team has gone, and make some revised predictions.

Brisbane Broncos
Original prediction: first
Revised prediction: first

At the halfway mark of 2017, Wayne Bennett’s side are on-track to complete the ultimate redemption story after their heartbreaking grand final loss to the North Queensland in 2015.

Benji Marshall has been a great signing, despite only playing three first-grade games so far, having broken his wrist while playing for the Redcliffe Dolphins in the Queensland Cup.

This has seen Kodi Nikorima take his game to a whole new level while filling in for Ben Hunt at halfback, after the latter did his hamstring in Round 6 against the Sydney Roosters. Nikorima has proven he is the solution to fill the No.7 jersey when Hunt moves to the St George Illawarra Dragons in 2018.

Anthony Milford has been superb, making his Origin debut for Queensland in Game 1, while Darius Boyd is playing as well as he ever has.

They have tremendous depth, and although sitting fifth on the ladder, with 16 points, the Broncos are in the perfect position to make their move.

I can’t see many teams who can beat them, and it is quite possible that they could go the rest of the season undefeated. They are on-track to win their first minor premiership since 2000, and their first premiership since 2006.

AAP Image/Dan Peled

Canberra Raiders
Original prediction: second
Revised prediction: second

The Raiders have been trying to play the same way as they did in 2016, but it hasn’t quite come together. They have lost five matches by six points or less, including three of them in golden point extra time, two of those against Manly.

However, despite being just outside the top eight, Canberra are close to finding their best form, and they have the ability to go on a long winning run. They won’t finishing the regular season in second position, probably somewhere around fifth, but from there, they will have the form and roster to make it all the way to the grand final and be a chance of winning their first premiership since 1994.

Sydney Roosters
Original prediction: third
Revised prediction: third

The Roosters have proven in 2017 that 2016 was just an aberration, and that they are again premiership contenders this year.

Mitchell Pearce has been in career-best form – his combination with Luke Keary in the halves has been brilliant.

I can see the Roosters finishing the regular season in second position, ahead of the Melbourne Storm and the North Queensland Cowboys on points differential, but they will just fall short of a grand final appearance.

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New Zealand Warriors
Original prediction: fifth
Revised prediction: fourth

Well, what can you say about the Warriors?

They are tactically flawed, mentally weak, physically inept, and can’t seem to realise their undoubted potential – according to most so-called experts.

However, despite them currently being 12th on the competition ladder on ten competition points, and having only achieved five wins (all at Mount Smart Stadium) from 13 games, they have the ability to make the finals. They could make the eight with a negative points differential, but by winning more games than they have lost, they could be around seventh position.

From there, the Warriors have a number of players who would relish playing under the bright lights of finals footy, and could shock everyone by making the preliminary finals.

Melbourne Storm
Original prediction: seventh
Revised prediction: fifth

Although the Storm had a few injuries to key players in the early rounds, they have played as well as ever under Craig Bellamy, who is quite simply a genius.

Billy Slater is performing beyond expectations since returning from a career-threatening shoulder injury, Cooper Cronk is playing well in his final season with the club, and Cameron Smith is still at the top of his game – although there are reports he might be carrying a sternum injury.

Melbourne will have no problem finishing inside the top four, possibly third, but will have a shock straight-sets exit from the finals.

North Queensland Cowboys
Original prediction: fourth
Revised prediction: sixth

The Cowboys had a tough start to 2017 in terms of injuries, losing co-captain Matthew Scott and back-rower Patrick Kaufusi for the season to serious knee and foot injuries.

This was compounded by the fact that the other co-captain, Johnathan Thurston, has spent a significant period of time on the sidelines, firstly with a calf and then with a shoulder injury, playing only six matches for North Queensland, plus a Test match for Australia.

They have also suffered short-term injuries to other key players, including Lachlan Coote and Jake Granville. However, the club compensated well to keep themselves within striking distance of other premiership contenders.

They will finish fourth at the end of the regular season, but the significant amount of injuries, combined with the physical effort the Cowboys have put in during the last three years will take its toll, and result in a straight-sets exit from the finals.

Cronulla Sharks
Original prediction: eighth
Revised prediction: seventh

I predicted before the start of the season that the Sharks wouldn’t win back-to-back premierships, and despite them currently being second, on 20 points, I still believe this will be the case.

They have filled the hole of the retired Michael Ennis better than I expected, with Jayden Brailey almost certain to be the rookie of the year.

However, despite the strong performances of the entire team so far in 2017, they look likley to hit a flat patch, and while they will remain in the top eight by the end of the regular season, probably in sixth position, they will make a first-week exit.

AAP Image/David Moir

Penrith Panthers
Original prediction: sixth
Revised prediction: eighth

The Panthers lost seven out of their first nine matches, including a five-match losing streak, and demoted Matt Moylan, Peta Hiku, and Waqa Blake to the NSW Cup after the three broke a club-imposed curfew following their loss to the Melbourne Storm (the first in that five-match losing streak).

However, they have recovered somewhat to be tenth on 12 points, just two points outside the top eight with a positive points differential.

Penrith will continue to be inconsistent, and the injuries to key players won’t help, but they will just make the top eight on points differential on 28 competition points, before a first-week exit.

Their’s will be viewed as a season where the stock put in coach Anthony Griffin and some players was lowered.