For the second time in a fortnight a juicy Friday-night match between a pair of premiership contenders is diminished due to the number and quality of the players who won’t take part.
The list of players missing from tonight’s match is quite extraordinary.
The Cats will, again, be without their defensive pillars Harry Taylor and Lachie Henderson as well as the great Gary Ablett.
Add to those players Daniel Menzel, Cam Guthrie, Brandan Parfitt and Nakia Cockatoo.
That’s seven of Geelong’s best 22 players. Lincoln McCarthy, too, would have a strong case if healthy.
Things are just as ugly for the visiting Giants, who will head to Kardinia Park without arguably their three best players – Josh Kelly, Toby Greene and Jeremy Cameron – as well as Brett Deledio, Tom Scully, Zac Williams and Rory Lobb.
If you follow the NBA, you might have heard the term “schedule loss”. Essentially, it refers to a team looking at their schedule and deciding a certain game – usually a third game in four nights, or the second-night of a road back-to-back – is more trouble than it’s worth.
This game has a bit of that feeling about it for the Giants, who are taking no chances with Cameron or Deledio.
That’s not to suggest GWS won’t try to win, just that with four wins and a draw from six games – and the second-best percentage in the competition – they don’t need to risk their stars on the road in a short week.
(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
For the Cats, it’s not quite desperate times, but it’s getting there. Geelong, rightly, have top-four ambitions, and to achieve that there isn’t a lot of room for error.
You have to go back to 2010 for the last time a team earned the double chance with fewer than 60 points – that’s 15 wins, or, in the case of last year’s Giants 14 wins and two draws.
Geelong are precariously placed at 3-3, with recent history suggesting they need to win 12 of their next 17 games to guarantee more than a week of finals action.
They can’t afford to take these Giants lightly. Leon Cameron’s team still boasts plenty of talent around the ball, which has been a problem for the Cats this season.
Geelong are 18th in the competition for clearance differential at -8.5 a game. To put that in some perspective, the Crows are the next worst team at -3.2. The Giants are fifth in the league with +2.2.
It’s an area of the game Chris Scott would have spent plenty of time thinking about after last week’s hammering by the Swans.
Sydney won the clearances 50-34, including a 16-5 advantage at centre bounces – Josh P Kennedy (seven) had more centre clearances than Geelong.
The return of Zac Smith should give the Cats a boost in that area against make-shift ruckmen Adam Tomlinson and Jonathon Patton, the latter of which will likely spend much of his time forward with Cameron out and the Cats still shorthanded down back.
The more simple solution to Geelong’s stoppage woes might be to get more out of their best player. In his first five games of 2018, Patrick Dangerfield has been well below the standard he has set in recent years.
Dangerfield is averaging 5.4 clearances a game this season. That’s a more-than-respectable number for mere mortals, but well below the 7.2 Dangerfield averaged last season and would be his lowest average since 2011 if it continued.
The 2016 Brownlow medallist can expect plenty of attention from GWS star Stephen Coniglio, among others, when he’s in the midfield.
(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)
Kardinia Park and it’s narrow wings have found out many a visiting team. Teams get trapped in their defensive third and choked by the narrow ground and Geelong’s defensive set-up.
Sydney have had success in Geelong for three glaring reasons: their stoppage strength, their comfort defending deep and their patience in transition.
The Giants could have one of those bases covered at stoppages, and based on this season, they might have the defensive aspect covered as well.
It’s worth emphasising that it’s still early and GWS have played a pretty soft schedule, but they have conceded a score on just 32.5 percent of their opponents’ inside-50s, which is the best mark in the league.
Counter to that, the Cats have converted a league-best 45.1 percent of their inside-50s into a score.
As for the patient transition, that’s not really the Giants’ go, but their link-up wave running could prove equally effective in penetrating Geelong’s defence.
GWS should take some inspiration from what the Crows did in Sydney a fortnight ago. If they come with a plan and control the stoppages and territory, they can cause an upset. Even without a handful of stars, they still have plenty of talent.
This game means too much for the Cats though, and I still expect them to be a force this season, so I’m tipping them to get up by three goals.
Here’s hoping it’s also a good enough game of footy to shut up the “footy is bad” crowd for a bit.
That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?
Cat
Roar Guru
Very poorly.
Aligee
Guest
Spread the game out and you wont have so many injuries. You do that by lowering I/C numbers You do that by changing tackle laws where players have their arms pinned and driven into the turf. You do that by paying push in the back free kicks which seem to be missed constantly or late tackles that seem to be missed. I dont watch to see Scott Selwood make 15 tackles I watch to see some good high marking and running open play and goals kicked. There are so many players around the ball, when teams do get it they have no one to kick it to, and therefore it just ends up back into the scrum.
Don Freo
Guest
I'm convinced, from your posts, that you would have the physical qualities to be right at home there.
Raimond
Roar Guru
Geelong by 15
Paul D
Roar Guru
This is great analysis Rick. You've given me some good things to look at tonight when I'm watching that will be hopefully be quite educational. Anon - pay attention, if you want to get respect on this place as an analyst and commentator as you so desperately seem to, this is the sort of quality you need to aspire to.
anon
Roar Pro
Geelong at home. Don't really trust either team. Giants lumbering forward line might do well against the Geelong backs. Geelong play their ground so well though. GWS will chip it out of defence and then just bomb it long to the boundary all night long.
Kris
Guest
According to the radar been raining in Geelong today. Heavy track might make for an inside game which would traditionally favour the Cats.
User
Roar Rookie
Was corrupted by their performance week before lol
I ate pies
Guest
You tipped them in a multi?!! In the words of the great Dr Phil, what were you thinking?
Maggie
Guest
Yeah right, only a bloke would say that!
Harsh Truth Harry
Roar Rookie
Ablett will last 5 minutes next week cat before he pings that 35 year old hammy again! He is gaaawwwwwnnnn, finished, Done like a well done T Bone bloke!
Harsh Truth Harry
Roar Rookie
Its the old slow cats versus the side with the most one dimensional coach in the games history. This game should be called the Who Cares cup! Blimey, can we get a decent friday night game anytime soon! its enough to make a bloke follow the no neck NSW sport!
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Rick has mood swings. So long as he's fed he's happy. :)
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
This is the beauty of AFL, Mattician. You can take the David King (i.e. simplistic approach) & just say fixing centre clearances, which isn't that simple to correct, will solve all your problems. or Apply a little more depth in your analysis of the problems at hand. Sure, if the attacking ball is cut-off from the centre clearance, your defence is under less pressure. However, you lose the ability to counter off loose forward entries i.e. counter attack (which still count as forward entries), which is one of the best ways to score, providing some pressure is applied to the ball-carrier The problem Geelong had was three fold on the weekend: 1. Their inability to break even (at best) from centre clearances in the final term; 2. Their inability to mitigate sufficiently against scoring once the ball entered the forward 50; and 3. Their inability to play tempo football to slow the rot. I'm pretty certain Danger & Selwood will try their best to address the former, but they're still up against a formidable midfield clearance team. Your defence should be able to breakeven, more often than not, in terms of forward 50 entries - Geelong's did not in the last 15 minutes by a LONG shot! Scott's defensive zone at stoppages has a few options though. A) does he offset a perimeter defence and allow the ball to be won but under high-pressure; b) attack the contested ball in view of scoring more often on stoppages when won; c) adjust the zonal defence down the centre corridor or d) positional change and personnel. Some of those changes will ultimately affect the Cats' ability to counter-attack, so changing one area WILL cause issues elsewhere. What I do know is Scott is not happy with the balance at stoppages. The Cats score well at them but they're also easily scored against. The balance here will change tonight.
Cat
Roar Guru
Even is still a far cry from the narrative being pushed that GWS is the only injury struck side. I'll be happy if Geelong can get through the game with 4 on the bench at the end for the first time this season. We might actually start getting healthier if no one else goes down. Ablett will certainly be ready next week, Menzel should as well. Taylor will either play VFL or AFL next week. McCarthy would be playing VFL this week if not for a bye. Parfitt is an outside chance at next week (9 days before our next game after tonight) too.
XI
Roar Guru
Yeah I don't have much confidence that this game will go well for us... Would be a great win if the Giants do get up but I'm thinking 5-6 goal loss would be ok.
Birdman
Guest
meh - I'd call it a draw on the medical front and maybe even at the end of tonight's game
Cat
Roar Guru
Cats are even more severely depleted.
Mango Jack
Roar Guru
Pass me the cigarette, Tom :)
Cat
Roar Guru
Nup. Fix centre clearances and the defense is fine. The defence has yet to 'fall over'. No dence in the game will play well when the opposition walks the ball clear of the centre and gives their side the ball laces out time and again. The only game Geelong's defence played poorly was against the Hawks. Tuohy and Cam Guthrie kicking 3 out on the full from the back pocket in the final quarter was poor at best but that was our more experienced players doing it.