The build up to the 2017 State of Origin series was a time of hope and joy for Blues fans.
Yes, the Queenslanders had built another mini-streak, but all signs suggested a new era of New South Wales success was about to commence.
The Blues boasted an enormous and devastating forward pack, headlined by man mountain Andrew Fifita, and were tipped to steamroll the Maroons up front.
State of Origin 1 wrap-up:
» GORE: Inglish massive for Queensland, but they didn’t get the calls
» The funniest State of Origin ratings on the internet
» How the Blues fared at the MCG: NSW Game 1 player ratings
» How the Maroons performed: Queensland Game 1 player ratings
» State of Origin highlights and match report
That is exactly what happened in Game 1, and the jubilation down south could barely be contained. Well do I remember the podcast of this very site crowing over NSW’s virtuoso display, and Queensland’s ponderous response.
The kings were dead – long live the new kings!
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We all remember how that series turned out. At the crucial midpoint of Game 2, the Maroons turned the tables and then, even after losing Johnathan Thurston to injury, they rolled the Blues in Game 3 to take their third series in a row.
This script was written long ago and it now seems to play repeatedly almost every year: early NSW expectation and optimism, met by a maroon-tinged dose of painful reality.
A small opportunity was spotted after the 2011 retirement of Darren Lockyer, the progenitor of Queensland’s dynasty, but it was missed.
The 2014 NSW victory sparked hope of a new dawn, but in 2015 a ‘too old’ and ‘too slow’ Queensland proved it to be false.
After Mal Meninga moved on, there was speculation the glue that had held Queensland together would fall apart. It didn’t.
The point is, NSW have had their opportunities over the last decade to take back the balance of power, but each time they have fallen short.
Now, 2018 represents perhaps their greatest opportunity yet.
Thurston, Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith are gone. Their fellow tormentor, Billy Slater, is now also out for at least Game 1, if not the series. The side is full of debutants and single-digit reps.
AAP Image/Julian Smith
NSW, meanwhile, have assembled one of the most in-form and potentially electric line-ups in years. “Finally, Freddy has picked on form!” is the cry of so many commentators, and they are right.
Although it’s been said before, this year (perhaps more so than any other since 1995) the Blues can truly be said to have the most dominant side on paper.
Tonight is the moment for NSW to demonstrate that potential – the greatest chance in years to dominate a weakened Queensland and restore hope for the future by going on to take the series. A Roar article on Monday assured us that the Blues will annihilate Queensland, and they should. But herein lies a great and terrible risk.
Imagine if the script repeats itself again.
Imagine if the Blues fumble yet another chance. The scars from 2017 were bad enough; they required purging almost the entire team and its culture. The damage to the NSW rugby league psyche would be enormous.
It is not outside the realm of possibility that if the Blues do not claim this year’s series, they may never dominate the Origin arena again. Sure, they’ll win one game most years. They may even steal a series every now and then. Upsets do happen.
But if this Queensland side, at arguably its lowest ebb in eleven years, can muster the strength to yet again beat a team of in-form superstars, they may well secure psychological supremacy over another generation of Blues for the foreseeable future.
No pressure.
Chris
Roar Pro
I've thought for a while that all the pressure really is on NSW. Now that Thurston, Smith, Cronk have all retired and Slater is injured, it's up to them to win and start an era of their own. Really, it's all on them. They've got more to prove than Queensland now. If they can't win now, then when can they ever?
Raugeee
Guest
I was unrelenting with my criticisms of Aaron Woods as a rep player. People replied with all sorts of insults "You don't the game" - "You obviously just watch the highlight reel" etc etc. Well finally everyone else realised that Woods is nowhere near good enough to be a rep front rower. I have the same instinctive feeling about Milford. He just shouldn't be there - look, he may be OK off the bench, at a pinch, but QLD should have Ponga out there. Game 2 may be too late as it's played in Sydney and the young NSW team will have a huge game of experience behind them.
Nat
Roar Guru
In fairness, Milford only played 20mins so we can't put too much on him from that showing.
Matt P
Roar Rookie
I sure will :-P
Raugeee
Guest
Matthew - I am praying that I'm wrong. Happy to eat crow after Milford plays outstandingly and QLD win. make sure you remind me :)
Matt P
Roar Rookie
I think you're slightly exaggerating on Milford last year. He wasn't terrible, QLD as a whole were completely outplayed, and a HIA is hardly his fault. Besides, if we're judging players solely based on debuts, Hodges would never have played again. Would that have been a good call?
Raugeee
Guest
Just watched Kevvy from Fox NRL 360 last night. He was saying he "Can't wait for Milf to show what he can do at this level". Well, we saw what Milf can do at this level last year. He looked completely out of place and couldn't even last the game. Ponga has been on fire and can do it all - including goal kicking. I am not at all confident tonight.
Paul
Roar Guru
hi CS, I don't think a NSW series loss will be a major disappointment, depending on how the guys play. If Qld had completely swamped NSW for the past 20 years, winning every series 3 blot, with blow out scores every game, NSW guys would be shell hocked for sure, but the fact is, NSW has been highly competitive through nearly all these series. The difference with this side is, the bulk have never been disappointed at this level, so losing this year is only likely to spur them on to better next year.
RoryStorm
Guest
What has happened to Tim Glasby who was named 18th man for Queensland only days ago?
peeko
Guest
how would a NSw side with 11 debutantes be damaged by losing. they are fresh with no losses yet i dont see how it is now or never
The Barry
Roar Guru
Great comment FT. For all the pomp about how dangerous the NSW 3/4 line looks, Queensland’s is still better. 3 out of 4 were in the WC final last year and Inglis almost certainly would have been if not for injury. Slater was the fullback and Morgan the 6...yet we’ve been told all week how many points the Blues have in them and how they’ll win by 40. I’m hopeful and quietly confident of a blues win but some of the commentary has been outrageous. Slater’s absence weakens the Qld spine but I don’t think there’s much of a difference in quality between Tedesco / Maloney / Cleary / Cook and Morgan / Munster / Hunt / McCullough.
Matt P
Roar Rookie
No one disputes that it's a weaker team without Smith, Cronk, and Thurston. But that's not relevant for comparing the two teams now. Being as good as the big 3 and being good enough to win this year aren't the same thing.
CS Knott
Roar Rookie
I don't disagree that this is close to the best team Queensland can put out, but I don't see how you can disagree that is a weaker team for losing the input of four legendary players. Whether they are unavailable due to retirement or not is beside the point - they were there last year and are not this year, and Queensland on paper (in terms of leadership, experience, and key attacking and defensive stats) look the weaker for it. I think you hit my nail on the head perfectly with your last two paragraphs. The assumption that this NSW side will gel and be amazing is not mine, it's plastered across most of our sports media. If NSW continue to lose while carrying the weight of such expectation, there'll be some long term issues to face up to. You're correct that a win and attacking mindset provides a nucleus for future success. Continued disappointment would seem to have the opposite effect.
Forty Twenty
Guest
The QLD back line looks a lot more like the Australian back line than the NSW one and it's not a weak QLD pack by any stretch. Whatever happens in this series, if NSW have several champions and immortals in key positions in the future then we are almost certain to win some series. Every team from either state who has champion spine players have won series and I don't expect that to change. Once in a while an ordinary spine wins a series but which certified champion half , 5/8 , fullback or hooker hasn't won series for either state? .
Paul
Roar Guru
This article was not a bad read till it got the hoe stretch with 6 paragraphs to go. It then went down hill rapidly. NSW is playing a "weakened" Qld side? Really? They can only play the guys who are available on the night and you can't count guys who have retired from rep football, only players who are injured. This means a NSW with 11 debutants will play a Qld side with 10 players from last years winning side, minus Billy Slater. That doesn't look weakened to me, from an experience point of view. "If NSW loses this series, they may never dominate another"? What a ridiculous statement. The Blues have 11 new players and there is a public assumption they'll magically gel this year against a near full strength Qld side and beat the daylights out of them? I for one hope they win but am not as confident as Tom Rock, that they'll win in a canter. I'm equally hopeful they'll provide the nucleus for the NSW side moving forward with an attacking mindset, that WILL win future series, regardless how this series goes.
KenoathCarnt
Guest
I wouldn't write off the "Devin dont knows" just yet there is always hope.
KenoathCarnt
Guest
I dont know why Qld didnt pick Ponga as utility he could have slotted strait into fullback. Going to be thrustrating watching all the little glimmering blues faces getting a cheap win.