Essendon vs Sydney on Friday night offers us a tale of two teams who are pretty much the opposite – one low on the ladder and in form, one high on the ladder and not.
On one hand Essendon have the home ground advantage, on the other hand Sydney have a much better record away from home than they do at it this year.
These two teams have given us some classic finishes in recent years, in fact six of the last eleven matches between them have been decided by two goals or less, four by less than one goal.
The telling stat? Sydney tend to get on top. They’ve won the last eight in a row. I’ll be picking them to buck recent form and do it again.
Richmond and Collingwood on Saturday is up there with the most anticipated matches of the year so far.
The Tigers have an almighty record on the line – the chance to record the most consecutive wins ever seen at the MCG by a single club.
I suspect they’ll get it too. While Collingwood are a very good team, it’s hard to think of something good they do that Richmond don’t do better.
Adelaide and Melbourne on Saturday night disappointingly won’t be the return of Jake Lever to Adelaide Oval, but still looks like a match drenched in drama.
Both of these teams come into the game with the hope of playing finals but the loser will leave with their season hanging by a thread.
I reckon a passionate and vocal home crowd will get the Crows over the line.
North often has a significant home ground advantage at Blundstone Arena as they manage the windy nature of the ground better than any other team knows how.
It should make it a cracking contest with West Coast, but I reckon the Eagles will just be too strong for the Kangaroos.
Geelong, GWS, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide and Hawthorn are my other tips this week, with the Giants getting a win over St Kilda the lock of the week.
Cameron Rose
Sydney, Richmond, Geelong, GWS, Carlton, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn
In theory, Essendon should be primed to take Sydney down, but in practise the Swans will probably find a way to win.
Collingwood have still only beaten one team higher than 10th, and none in the top six, but they are coming in hot after a complete display against North. Sticking with Richmond, who can lock in top two with a win.
Geelong and GWS should win. Going with Carlton to record their second win of the season, against a Suns outfit that might have a key down after an enormous win last week.
Melbourne have bounced back pretty well from bad defeats this year, and a trip away to Adelaide might be just what they need after losing to Geelong in spectacular fashion.
North’s season won’t be over if they lose to West Coast, but it will be on life support. Tipping Tassie to be to their advantage and keep their finals hopes alive.
Port to beat the Dogs and Hawks over Freo, but neither will want to take it lightly.
TomC
Essendon, Richmond, Geelong, GWS, Gold Coast, Adelaide, West Coast, Port Adelaide, Fremantle
Geez, who knows with Sydney? If there’s ever going to be a point of no return for the inconsistent Swans, it would be last week’s abject performance. The Dons have everything to play for and every reason to be confident.
There’s a lot to look forward to in the Tigers versus the Magpies at the MCG on a Saturday afternoon. Might not be the last time this year we see it. But at the moment you have to back Richmond.
(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Gold Coast’s win last week seemed to come from nowhere. I don’t know if it means they’re better than we thought they were, but I’m still pretty sure Carlton are as bad as we think. So the Suns at home.
It’ll be barely two months since the Demons belted Adelaide in the Northern Territory, but the Crows form has recovered somewhat while Melbourne haven’t quite gone on with it since then. Adelaide have proven to be a resilient side and they can get over the line at home.
In a tight contest I’d normally back the home team in the Kangaroos, but the Eagles are getting back somewhere near full strength and their best form. They’ll show they’re a level above North.
Jay Croucher wrote this week about how frustrating the Power have become. It’s certainly true and I don’t feel much confidence backing them away from home, but surely they have too much firepower for the Dogs.
Hawthorn start favourites against the Dockers, but the Hawks’ form is variable and on a long road trip Freo might get up.
Elsewhere, the Cats at home over the Lions and GWS to beat the Saints.
| Round 19 | Josh E | Adrian P | Cam R | TomC | The Crowd |
| ESS vs SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD | ESS | SYD |
| RIC vs COL | RIC | RIC | RIC | RIC | RIC |
| GEE vs BL | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE |
| GWS vs STK | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS |
| GCS vs CAR | GCS | CAR | CAR | GCS | GCS |
| ADE vs MEL | ADE | ADE | MEL | ADE | ADE |
| NM vs WCE | WCE | WCE | NM | WCE | WCE |
| WB vs PA | PA | PA | PA | PA | PA |
| FRE vs HAW | HAW | FRE | HAW | FRE | HAW |
| Last week | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| Total | 98 | 100 | 101 | 108 | 109 |
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
What a random thing to be unaware of.
anon
Roar Pro
I'm like, always right. Look, everyone will write off the Swans after tonight, but I've questioned them for awhile. Tonight is more about the fall of Sydney than the rise of Essendon.
The Resident Moron
Guest
I was not aware getting players back automatically improves percentage.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Despite the major outs in Treloar, Dunn and De Goey, the Pies blow the lid right off at the G to win by 19 points and stake a genuine outside claim for a flag.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
With respect Peter you or anyone else doesn't know what Cripps will do or what position Carlton will be in in 3 years so to speculate that he will leave Carlton is just you trying to stir up Carlton supporters. There were plenty of people saying he was heading back to WA at the end of this season. I am still trying to come to terms with your comment the other day when you classed Cripps a ducker simply because he has received the most free kicks.
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
According to Footywire the Kangas are Ranked 18th in Kicks Per Game Ranked 15th in Disposals Per Game Ranked 17th in Marks Per Game Ranked 12th in Tackles Per Game Ranked 13th in Clearances Per Game Ranked 16th in Rebound 50s Per Game Ranked 14th in least Opponent Tackles Per Game Ranked 12th in least Opponent Goal Assists Per Game Ranked 18th in least Opponent Clangers Per Game Ranked 15th in Team to Opponent Kicks Per Game Diff. Ranked 13th in Team to Opponent Disposals Per Game Diff. Ranked 17th in Team to Opponent Marks Per Game Diff. Ranked 16th in Team to Opponent Tackles Per Game Diff. Ranked 12th in Team to Opponent Goal Assists Per Game Diff. Ranked 16th in Team to Opponent Clangers Per Game Diff. I don't think that going to Tassie will change any of that.Eagles by 40
peter chrisp
Guest
Let's hope you are wrong if you get into the Grand Final although it's a long way off, let's hope you get done and that would make my day and make my year here's hoping
peter chrisp
Guest
& now with De Goey out Tigers should be fine?
anon
Roar Pro
No certain games, but they look like obvious picks to me.
anon
Roar Pro
The Swans have a good Etihad record because all the tenants have generally been rubbish in recent years. Essendon are a more dangerous mid table team this year. Swans in the last four weeks: Beaten easily by Richmond. Would have been smashed if not for kicking 12.2. Beaten by Geelong at the SCG. Would have lost by 10 goals or more if Geelong kicked straighter. Last gasp win over North Melbourne. Beaten by the Suns at the SCG.
mrob96
Roar Rookie
The Swans will come out of the blocks early and then defend, defend, defend in the second half. You'd think Etihad was their home deck due to the way they play the ground. The Bombers might be due for a loss here, just as much as the Swans are due for a good win. Blundstone Arena gives North Melbourne arguably the second biggest home ground advantage, only behind Richmond at the MCG. I'd expect the Roos to spring an upset down there.
peter chrisp
Guest
Bit of a pain De Goey is now out for 2 weeks
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
TTF sounding a tad nervous!
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Col, with all respect, the difference with those clubs above is they haven't been anchored to the bottom past five years finishing 13,18, 14, 16, 18.
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Yeah, like all the tipsters going for the Tigers makes any difference! Logic of a goldfish.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
...and if everybody beats everybody, Freo will still be a finals chance with 12 wins, improving their percentage with the inclusion of 7 top players over the concluding weeks.. The joy continues.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
You blokes are unreal, because it is Carlton he is hedging his bets. Tell me was Dusty Martin, Nat Fyfe, Rory Sloane and Jeremy McGovern hedging their bets when they didn't sign contracts beyond free agency? Tell me Pete is Adam Treloar hedging his bets at the moment as he is out of contract at the end of 2019? Why hasn't he extended yet? Rissole, why would Carlton sign him up for 7 to 8 years if they are confident he will stay a Blue. They have a lot of young players extending contracts and obviously need to manage their salary cap. How many players extend contracts by more than 2 - 3 years especially when the cap usually increases every few years meaning more money available. Hear are some quotes from Cripps media interview. 'I want to repay the faith" 'I love Melbourne" "No thoughts on going anywhere else" "Determined to bring success to the club" Cripps will be the next captain of Carlton, possibly jointly with Sam Docherty and probably next year. He ain't going anywhere.
dbjm
Guest
I like where your heads at :)
Rissole
Guest
Col, I agree that most players don't sign beyond their free agent eligibility, however, this is Patrick Cripps, he doesn't need offers from other clubs to increase his contract value. He'll be the highest paid player there regardless and Carlton would sign him up for 7-8 years if they could. I agree with Peter, he is hedging his bets. He is obviously loyal and loves the club, but love won't be enough without improvement from the remainder of the team and coaching staff.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
There's other players signing on beyond RFA Col, I agree with Rissole, Cripps is hedging his bets to see if the Blues can get off the bottom. If you don't by 2021 he will have no one begrudging him chasing finals elsewhere.