With just two weeks left before the end of the home-and-away season there’s a number of matches this week that will shape the finals and the exciting thing about 2018 is they’ve been so hard to predict.
Of course, what is the most exciting thing about 2018 has also been the most frustrating thing about 2018, at least for those of us in the business of tipping.
Melbourne vs West Coast looks to be the match we’re all having the most trouble with this weekend and the panel is split.
On one hand you can look at the Demons and say that they haven’t beaten a top-eight side all year and have just lost Jesse Hogan for the season.
On the other hand, they desperately need a win here in order to make finals happen, while West Coast may be slightly less invested.
The Eagles, too, are not without their problems – they’re still missing three crucial players in Josh J Kennedy, Andrew Gaff and Nic Naitanui.
They had a stirring win last week but it’d be silly to ignore the fact they didn’t lead all day until after the final siren, and probably wouldn’t have gotten there were it not for a horrendous twist of fate that saw Port Adelaide down to just one man on the bench.
My brain is screaming at me not to tip Melbourne, but I’m going to do it.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Any last hope Essendon has of making finals is on the line against Richmond on Friday night. Unfortunately for them, they’re just not on the Tigers’ level.
Collingwood should find a way to get the win at home against a Port Adelaide side that doesn’t have a skerrick of momentum.
Geelong will thump Fremantle to make the finals dream one step closer to being a certainty. In fact, make that my lock of the week.
The Swans have been commendable in the past two weeks, but GWS will have simply too much firepower for them at Spotless.
The ‘QClash’ won’t shape finals but it will shape the draft. The Lions should win, putting Gold Coast to pick 2, and themselves pick 4.
Hawthorn over St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs over Carlton look like fairly straighforward results.
North need to beat Adelaide to have a chance at finals, the Crows are already out of the equation – but a better team. North hasn’t played in any kind of form to suggest they could win this one for a while now.
Adrian Polykandrites
Richmond, Collingwood, Geelong, GWS, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Bulldogs, Melbourne, Adelaide
Port’s season is pretty much on the line on Saturday at the G, but I expect the Pies to keep their top-four hopes alive while dealing the Power’s season a damaging blow.
The Cats will smash the Dockers in Geelong.
In the past fortnight the Swans have reminded anyone who might have forgotten that they are a team of serious substance.
They’re not to be underestimated, but I like the Giants in a close one, even after another couple of meaningful injuries.
The 2008 Dockers have the fewest wins over a 22-game season (six) of any team with a percentage greater than 90. The 4-16 Lions currently have a percentage of 89.2. It’ll be above 90 after they spank the Suns.
Hawthorn won’t have any trouble with the Saints – that was a nice 10-week rebuild the Hawks had.
On current form the Dogs should be too good for the Blues.
I can’t quit the Demons, I’m an idiot.
The Roos still have everything to play for, but the Crows will be too good at home.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
TomC
Richmond, Collingwood, Geelong, GWS, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Bulldogs, West Coast, Adelaide
Richmond to keep their winning run going over Essendon.
The Magpies seem to rise over most obstacles, and I suspect neither their run of injuries nor the brittle Port Adelaide will be too much for them on Saturday.
The NSW Derby is tough to pick. I think the Giants just have a little more class, but really it could go either way.
The Suns can’t seem to put up anything like a winning score at the moment, and the relatively prolific Lions should get over them.
Out West, the Eagles will probably play better footy for longer than the underwhelming Demons.
Elsewhere, Cats over Dockers, Hawthorn to beat the Saints, Bulldogs to continue their improved form against Carlton, and Adelaide at home against the Kangaroos.
| Round 22 | Josh E | Adrian P | Cam R | TomC | The Crowd |
| RIC vs ESS | RIC | RIC | ESS | RIC | RIC |
| COL vs PA | COL | COL | COL | COL | COL |
| GEE vs FRE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE |
| GWS vs SYD | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS |
| GCS vs BRI | BRI | BRI | BRI | BRI | BRI |
| STK vs HAW | HAW | HAW | HAW | HAW | HAW |
| CAR vs WB | WB | WB | WB | WB | WB |
| WCE vs MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | WCE | WCE |
| ADE vs NM | ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE |
| Last week | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Total | 118 | 116 | 119 | 124 | 126 |
Mark
Guest
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Gerry
Roar Rookie
Essendon beat Eagles in Round 14 ion Perth not Melbourne
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I agree. WCE by 27 points
Mitcher
Guest
Maaaate, quick to aggressive
Mitcher
Guest
You’re a national treasure Pete.
Mitcher
Guest
Obviously we know your loyalties and that’s completely fine. But dead set, how in the lords have the majority of tips gone Melbourne’s way. In Perth, the very week after throwing exclamation marks at their complete inability to knock over a quality side.
Jack T
Guest
Can you say aside from fantasia and even though he was woeful at the start of the year Daniher, who exactly the bombers have out?
User
Roar Rookie
It's not a Ross Lyon type resting of players, and as injuries can happen in finals the fringe players will be hungry to show they are ready if required. Psychological benefits aren't there because even if they lose talk of it being Richmond's cup won't stop and that is the biggest thing Dimma needs to keep away from the group. Coaches of time gone by are products of their eras so I don't agree that that method is applicable in modern day. Looking back on 2000 I doubt sheeds or the players wanted to drop that game against Bulldogs keeping them from a clean sheet, Richmond have a very formidable tool in being seen as unbeatable at the mcg and to try and rock that would be foolish.
Bruce
Guest
Freo match up well on Geelong and like playing at gmhba. They would love to scuttle the cats season.
TomC
Roar Guru
Should have been no idea etc...
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Sheedy used to do it back in the day, Barrassi and Hafey too. If a side was going a bit too swimmingly, you don't tell your players to lose, you rest a few, move a few around, reduce game time for others, next thing you know you've had a close loss. Richmond don't need to win and every game they win at the MCG continues the streak which builds pressure. The players are being bombarded by a heavy saturated media telling them they are unbackable favourites for the flag and we are what still three weeks out of the finals? DImma won't be perturbed by a loss at all. brings the Tigers back to the pack a little in the eyes of the media who jump on and off bandwagons on a weekly basis. Also ends the talk of the MCG winning streak which must drive him mad. What a meaningless stat in the context of trying for back to back flags. Fact is the Tigers have had one loss since round 12 and it would do them some good psychologically to have another.
Tom
Guest
That was in 2017, not earlier this season
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Essendon would just need to win both games, overtaking Port's percentage while doing so and hope Sydney lose both theirs (or Cats lose one) and North lose one...and they're there.
User
Roar Rookie
Would of thought having a good win down on personell would send a better message to the side and the comp.
Gerard Klomp
Guest
Sorry it should of been no Idea not know idea.
Gerard Klomp
Guest
Sorry it should of been no Idea not know idea.
Gerard Klomp
Guest
Sorry lit should of been no Idea not know idea.
Cat
Roar Guru
Gerard Klomp
Guest
For those who Picked Melbourne over the Mighty Eagles. You really have know Idea. The Eagles will thrash Melbourne by at least by 8 goals. I have said before Melbourne are soft and have not beaten any one in the top Eight. They do not deserve to be in the top Eight. The Eagles will be too good for Melbourne.
Kavvy
Guest
Melbourne beat West Coast in Perth the last time they met. It was earlier in the season (Round 14) so there wasn't the same mental pressure on the Dees but that may be part of the thinking