An impressive premiership defence means the Tigers have a top-two finish locked up and very little to play for in the final two rounds of the season.
The Bombers, on the other hand, have everything to play for.
Essendon’s finals hope remain slim, but they’re not as slim as they were a week ago thanks to a 43-point win against the Saints. This made it nine wins in 12 games and boosted their percentage to an increasingly respectable 104.8.
With all four teams directly above them on ladder having slipped up in Round 21, the Dons find themselves only a game and percentage outside of the eight with a final-round meeting against the side currently in eighth – Port Adelaide.
Champion Data puts the Bombers’ current finals chances at just two per cent – so you’re saying there’s a chance! – but if they win out, that increases to 21 per cent. The odds are still stacked against them, but having a crack sure beats throwing in the towel.
Richmond have seen many a challenger lose their way this season due to mounting injuries. The Tigers have themselves been lucky in that regard, but with finals just a few weeks they’re starting to get a taste of it.
Richmond are on fire at the ‘G. (Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
For the second week in a row they’ve made five changes.
Kane Lambert – arguably the fifth-best Tiger – is in a race to be fit for a qualifying final, as is dangerous small forward Dan Butler.
Recently re-signed skipper Trent Cotchin will sit out tonight’s match to freshen up, as will key defender David Astbury. Wrecking ball Dion Prestia misses with “hamstring soreness”. The Tigers aren’t taking any chances, nor should they.
There’s still bucketloads of talent in yellow and black, of course. Star forward Jack Riewoldt is coming off a ten-goal game and a good chance to claim his third Coleman Medal. Josh Caddy bagged four goals the last time these sides met. There’s also Dustin Martin and Alex Rance, who might just be the two best players in footy.
The Bombers have had their own injury woes this season – none more significant than Joe Daniher, who’s been out of action since Round 8 – but they got a lucky break with Adam Saad named after being on the receiving end of a brutal Nathan Brown bump.
Saad and 50th-gamer Conor McKenna will be important if the Bombers are to cause an upset. The pair’s ability to break the lines will be key to piercing Richmond’s fierce defence.
The Bombers would be better served trying to play the game in their half, though.
Last time these sides met the Tigers strangled the life out of Essendon on the way to a 71-point win. Richmond scored 89 of their 114 points off turnovers, with 64 of those points coming from forward-half takeaways. The Bombers? They got a measly three points from forward-half intercepts that night.
On the season, Essendon are getting just 47.7 per cent of their turnover points from chains starting in the forward-half, which is ranked 17th and ain’t going to cut it against the Tigers.
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The good news for Essendon is that since their bye, that percentage has been 55.6 per cent, which is above the league average of 54.7.
Essendon skipper Dyson Heppell notches his 150th game tonight and like the Bombers, he’s been in fine form since the bye, averaging 30.1 disposals, 11.6 contested possessions and 5.6 clearances. He’ll be important.
Richmond come into tonight on a four-game win streak. For them to win the flag from here without dropping another game, it would extend that streak to nine games. You have to go back to the 2001 Brisbane Lions (who won 16 in a row) to find a premier that ended the season with more than seven wins on the trot. Tonight has all the makings of “the loss they had to have”.
The Tigers have seen off every challenger they’ve faced at the MCG for the past 19 games at their home ground, including these Bombers not so long ago, but motivation matters. While the Bombers aren’t at the Tigers’ level – perhaps no one is in 2018 – they have stacks more of it tonight.
Essendon by 20 points. That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
It is irrelevant to a sides missing players whether they have happened to play in a premiership or not. It's like Carlton having Cripps and Curnow come back from injury and saying the Blues have two wooden spoon players returning. Completely irrelevant.
sean
Guest
Because no one gives a toss about players in a losing prelim game
Downsey
Roar Pro
I hope the Dons do 'em. Carn Walla.
Rissole
Guest
I didn't see the game so can't comment on him. But I checked the stats you mentioned. He had 9 possessions (including 3 clangers). Three of his 9 possessions were intercepts which ranked him equal 17th on the ground for intercept possessions. You might want to recheck the stats!
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
'It means nothing.' Don't kid yourself.
EddiefromElwood
Guest
Fair enough! Just goes to show, you don't have to be the best to BE the best! Let see what the future holds!
Slane
Guest
You might want to check out Garthwaite's stats in his first game. He came in for Astbury and had more intercept possessions than anybody else on the ground.
Baz
Guest
I'm tempted to pick Bombers purely on the way they started against WCE in Perth. no matter the ins & outs for any of the teams....
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Why do people keep mentioning "premiership players" as if it is the panacea to all ills? It just means they played in the 2017 Grand Final. They may well be the 17-22 ranked players? It's no different to the Cats having players out that played in the 2017 prelim and we never state "Geelong had 7 preliminary finals players out". It means nothing.
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
Purely hyperbole on my part. Lambert,Cotchin,Butler,Astbury,Prestia are significant unavailable/omissions for the Tigers especially with Astbury their best defender out
RT
Roar Rookie
Cracked me up!
Thatsashame
Guest
I'm curious about the 2nd string tigers. The Bombers don't have danger or Fantasia tonight. Massive outs! The players the tigers have had out this year, premiership players maybe, but none of them stars. It's just a shame that premiership aren't always won by the best team but rather by the least injuries because if everyone had a full team the tigers wouldn't be a chance.
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
And just quietly,"There’s also Dustin Martin and Alex Rance, who might just be the two best players in footy." Martin is not within a bull's roar of Fyfe and Rance isn't even the best Tigers' defender or the AFL's best defender... I think the Bombers will be too good for the second string Tigers
anon
Roar Pro
Tipping Essendon is just a hero pick.
Rissole
Guest
The problem for the Bombers is the lack of aerial threat up forward if they do break the lines. Given Richmond's small/medium forward line, Hooker or Francis will play forward, most likely Hooker. With Astbury out the Bombers will just need to neutralise Rance and Vlastuin's intercepting.
Jonesracing82
Guest
Hard to tip against the Tigers, they beat the Cats 2 weeks ago with 5 Premiership players out.
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
A lot being made of the outs but I'm expecting the Tigers to still be too strong in all aspects. The ins are all handy too. Lloyd, Conca and to a lesser extent Baker, playing for opportunities in the finals, will be desperate to play well. Garthwaite a more than capable replacement for Big Dave Astbury. And Nank, well he's a beauty. Tigers comfortably. Dimma quietly sorting out his finals squad.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
I think the method Essendon are most likely to use to take on Richmond would be the run and stun blitz from the backline, which will be interesting to see how that pans out. It would be real seat of the pants stuff, given the Tigers defensive chops, which centres around their small forwards as much as anything. The Bombres may as well go for it and they won't want to hang around, get it straight up the guts and what will be, will be. They will need to be relentless with it and try to match the Tigers is this aspect, because more than anything I think the relentless nature of the Tigers game is one of the points of difference. Worsfold may try some other strategy (probably that one of his lieutenants has come up with, because strategy ain't really his forte), or plug-in tactic, which would also be really interesting.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Dimma won't be too worried about a loss at this stage hence resting a few, could be good for him to get rid of the winning MCG streak before finals. Still, a proud bunch the Tigers and expect them to win by 19 points after a decent Bombers showing.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
"Champion Data puts the Bombers’ current finals chances at just two per cent – so you’re saying there’s a chance! – but if they win out, that increases to 21 per cent." So Champion Data only give Essendon a 10 percent chance of winning tonight against Richmond? Richmond are a better team than Essendon this year but both will be up for the contest tonight, I agree with the predicted 20 point margin for Essendon.