Richmond Tigers vs Hawthorn Hawks: AFL Finals Forecast

If you were looking for proof that the nature of the game has changed, then there’d be no better example than the fact that Richmond and Hawthorn are top four teams this year.

Gone are the days when a side needed to dominate clearances and contested possesions to be among the league’s best – the Tigers and the Hawks are below average at both.

Richmond average 5.3 fewer contested possessions than their opponents, ranked 16th, and Hawthorn average 4 less, ranked 13th.

Richmond come in dead last for clearance differential – they record 5.7 fewer clearances than their opponents, while Hawthorn tend to break even here.

What’s impressive about Richmond is their average clearance differential in wins is -5.6, pretty much exactly that of their season average, making it clear winning or losing the clearances does little to win or lose them the game.

Instead, the Tigers’ strategy has been to not worry about conceding the contested ball to their opponents but instead be in the best possible position to make them turn it over once they’ve won it.

Richmond’s ability to cause turnovers isn’t just the best in the league, but it’s almost laughably far ahead of anyone else.

The Tigers cause 82.5 turnovers per game, which is 5.7 more than the next best side, Adelaide. On average, they cause 9.3 more turnovers than their opponents, the next best being Melbourne who are +4.

Hawthorn are one of the best tackling sides in the league, so we know they bring the pressure. They lay 6.7 more tackles than their opponents in any given game, the third best differential in the league.

However, that tackling-heavy style isn’t causing turnovers with the same effectiveness – the Hawks cause only 0.5 more turnovers than their opponents on average.

(Photo by Brett Hemmings/Getty Images)

Neither team is dominant when it comes to winning the ball in the middle of the ground, so logically to have performed so well they must be among the best at using it – and they are.

Richmond score an average of 1.92 points per minute in possession, second only to the AFL’s most prolific team, Melbourne.

The Hawks, meanwhile, score 1.78 points per minute in possession, which has them ranked fifth overall in the AFL.

The numbers suggest this is largely due to the quality of the teams’ ball movement through the middle, as both are middle of the road for scoring efficiency from inside 50s.

Richmond balance out being one of the league’s most dangerous teams when having the ball in hand with being one of the most restrictive when they don’t.

They allow only 1.44 points per opposition minutes in possession, the least of any team in the AFL.

Part of this is due to the superb quality of their backline, which clears the ball out from 71 per cent of opposition forward entries – ranked fifth in the league.

Hawthorn allow 1.55 points per opposition minute in possession, seventh in the league. Their defence is much more dependent upon restricting their opponent’s ability to move it forward in the first place, as they’re actually second-last in the league for defensive clearance rate.

All things considered, the numbers suggest something that we could learn pretty quickly from glancing at the ladder: Richmond are a better team than Hawthorn. So the big question is, if the Hawks win, how do they do it?

The big fillip for Hawthorn heading into this game has been the fact that Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson has two weeks to prepare for it.

The four-time premiership coach is undoubtedly the AFL’s pre-eminent tactical mastermind and if there’s anyone in the league who can come up with a way to dismantle Richmond’s dominance, it’s him.

His opposite number tonight, Damien Hardwick, is one of six AFL senior coaches to be a Clarkson protege – that’s right, an entire third of AFL clubs are coached by Clarkson’s disciples.

Clarkson might well be tempted to put forward a slightly edited version of what Liam Neeson said in the A-Team movie: “Give me a minute, I’m good. Give me an hour, I’m great. Give me two weeks, I’m unbeatable.”

Prediction
Conventional wisdom suggests that the heat is turned up in finals, with the ability to win the contested ball and to put physical pressure on the opposition becoming even more important than they are in the home-and-away season.

This might become cause for concern for Richmond if they were opening their campaign against an opposition with dominant contested ball ability like Collingwood, Melbourne or GWS – but against Hawthorn, who are also lacklustre in that department, it’s less likely to be a problem.

Instead, the pressure-cooker that is September offers the chance for Richmond to flex their muscle when it comes to their unrivalled ability to create turnovers – that’s what happened this time last year, and they’ll be looking to make it happen again.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

Logically for Hawthorn, since the Tigers rely on turnovers to get the ball rather than winning it themselves, the answer to the question of unravelling Richmond is fairly simple: don’t feed them turnovers.

Easier said than done – you need a team who are both very experienced and in-sync to pull that off, and while the Hawks field one of the AFL’s most experienced sides, they risk being let down by the presence of a number of relatively green AFL players.

Richmond, by comparison, will field a side where, with the exception of Jack Higgins, every player either has at least 50 games experience or was part of last year’s finals campaign and premiership win.

My only question mark over the Tigers is are they in the right mental space, and do they want it enough? They’re the best team in the league – but so were Geelong in 2008.

They’re a better side in just about every respect than Hawthorn, who, with all due respect to their performances this year, are making up the numbers in the top four a bit off the back of a soft fixture.

Lose here, and I suspect there’s a genuine chance Hawthorn go out in straight sets as they’ll be up against the red-hot victor of tomorrow night’s clash between Melbourne and Geelong.

However no team in the AFL will provide as strong a mental test for the Tigers, and if Richmond don’t come into this one with the same hunger that they did last year, the Hawks’ professionalism and reliable quality is a chance to throw them off balance.

Those who believe in the notion that it’s good for a contender to have a loss late in the season to sharpen them up will note with interest that the Tigers finished the year with six consecutive wins – there hasn’t been a team to do that and then go on to win the flag since Brisbane in 2001.

A mental test may be just what the doctor ordered, though, and if the Tigers are able to overcome it in style then that will evapourate my final doubts about the side, and it would be hard to imagine any result other than them going on to win the grand final with ease afterwards.

My tip is they’ll win tonight, and win it all.

Richmond Tigers by 30 points.

Fun fact: Hawthorn and Richmond have been in the VFL/AFL together for 93 years, but this will be the first time ever that they’ve met in a finals match.

Also, kudos to Ryan Buckland for letting me take a sneak peak at some of his secret stats to put this preview together.