If Melbourne are going to trade Jesse Hogan, here's how to do it

A disappointing finish to the season has left a bitter taste in Melbourne’s mouth, and that has only been made worse by rumours that Jesse Hogan has decided to return home to Western Australia.

The club is yet to confirm Hogan’s despire to depart, and if there’s any hope of doing so should look to retain him – but if not, then the possibility is there to get a good return for his depature.

In today’s list breakdown I look in depth at the Melbourne Demons, and what they should do to get the maximum return for Hogan if they do indeed decide to trade him out in 2018.

List breakdown

Although Melbourne were widely expected to break through for a finals appearance in 2018, their overall list demographic could be used to make a case that expectations should not have been so high.

They entered season 2018 as the ninth oldest side in the league and only the 12 most experienced – falling short of the top eight in both respects.

Their decisions at the selection table not only reflected this list make-up but even doubled down on it as the Demons gave no less than 51 per cent of games to players aged 23 and under.

This is up there with the most strongly youth-focused teams in the league and was by far the highest proportion of games invested in youth by any side in the top eight.

What’s more, Melbourne can end season 2018 bearing the title of ‘best kids in the league’ as their 23-and-under group garnered 190 AFLCA votes, by far the most in the AFL.

The league average for AFLCA votes to that group is 71 – so Melbourne had more than two and a half times the AFL average performance from this age group.

It’s not hard to see why when you have a think about some of the names that appear here. Jesse Hogan, Angus Brayshaw and Clayton Oliver were the big stars this year, but there’s also huge untapped potential in Christian Petracca, Jake Lever, Sam Weideman and Charlie Spargo.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Christian Salem, James Harmes, Alex Neal-Bullen, Oscar MacDonald and Bayley Fritsch were all very handy players this year, and of those who were seen less regularly at senior level, you’d think we might still get good careers out of Jayden Hunt, Billy Stretch and Jay Kennedy-Harris.

Of course such a heavy investment in youth had to be balanced out somewhere and that is in Melbourne’s prime-age group, 24-29, where they put only 36 per cent of their games total.

The Dees recorded 167 AFLCA votes from this group which is a little below par but given how underrepresented it was in the side, a fairly solid performance.

Max Gawn, Tom McDonald and Jack Viney are the big stars of this group, but they are supported by some good quality players like Jeff Garlett, Michael Hibberd, Neville Jetta and Jake Melksham, plus some handy depth in the form of Aaron Vandenberg, Dom Tyson, Sam Frost and Mitch Hannan.

The age group that arguably let Melbourne down in 2018 was their veterans. While the Dees put a fairly standard 13 per cent of games into players 30 and over, they got a return of only 19 AFLCA votes – less than half of the league average.

This group is made up of skipper Nathan Jones, and mature recruits Jordan Lewis and Bernie Vince. Vince has already confirmed his retirement.

Overall the Dees have a list well stocked with young talent that will become mature talent in time. Experiencing some success now is good, but the exciting thing about this list is when they hit their peak over 3-6 years, they are going to be world beaters.

While it’s disappointing for the Dees that they didn’t get a whole lot from their veterans this year, the silver lining is that they know there aren’t going to be any irreplaceable retirees in the near future.

What do they need? So far this offseason they’re aggressively pursuing a key defender and a back-up ruckman, and both moves make a lot of sense.

Tom McDonald’s rebirth as a tall forward has been a huge fillip for their front half but, along with an ACL injury to Jake Lever, left them a bit undermanned in terms of big backmen.

Max Gawn is obviously elite, arguably the best ruckman in the league, but maybe played a game or two this year that he shouldn’t have simply because the Dees didn’t have someone they thought would be a good replacement in the side.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

The decisions to delist Lachlan Filipovic and Mitch King make it clear that Melbourne are planning to bring in a ruckman or two this offseason either at the trade table or the draft.

Beyond that it wouldn’t be a bad idea to add another outside-leaning midfielder/half-back option but the Dees do have some players like Hunt and Stretch already on the list who could step up to fill this role.

Underperformed or overperformed?

Overall Melbourne fielded the seventh youngest 22 on average, and also the seventh-least experienced. They had 1964 games of experience on average, about 70 less than the leaguewide benchmark.

It’s the same six teams who were below them on both metrics, and those six teams also happened to be this year’s bottom six teams on the ladder.

That being the case, it’s incredibly impressive that the Dees, being only one rung up on the age and experience ladder from this year’s bottom six, managed to make it all the way to the penultimate week of the season.

Verdict: Overperformed.

Contracts

Melbourne’s contract list is in healthy shape, with the vast majority of crucial players tied up for the longterm.

The only players who are out of contract right now that they should be hurrying to re-sign are Aaron Vandenberg and Jay Kennedy-Harris who, while neither of them are certain to be best 22, provide handy depth.

They’ve announced a number of delistings already most of which make sense but one of them that surprised me was the decision to cut Tom Bugg.

Maybe I’m just too big a fan of the ‘enforcer’ type in footy, but I reckon for his competitiveness alone Bugg was worth keeping around knowing that he’ll offer some fight if you need him to fill a gap.

Turning to season 2019, the big name in this group is of course Jesse Hogan, who might not even make it till then – we’ll talk more about him later on.

Whichever way Hogan goes, but especially so if he decides to leave, it’s crucial that Melbourne signs up Sam Weideman – coming out of contract next year – sooner rather than later.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Jake Melksham, Alex Neal-Bullen and Christian Salem are three others in the 2019 group Melbourne would have as priorities to re-sign.

One thing Melbourne should consider is whether to keep Jordan Lewis for the last year of his contract or try to move him on early.

With all due respect to Lewis’ lengthy list of achievements, I reckon the time has come to move him on – his veteran status will make him hard not to pick if he remains on the list, but he probably shouldn’t be in their best 22.

This isn’t just an overreaction to his poor performance in the preliminary final. He’s looked behind the pace several times this year and personally I’d rather be putting Jayden Hunt or Billy Stretch in his spot.

2022
Angus Brayshaw
Tom McDonald

2021
Max Gawn
Neville Jetta
Jake Lever
Clayton Oliver

2020
Bayley Fritsch
Mitch Hannan
James Harmes
Michael Hibberd
Jayden Hunt
Oscar McDonald
Christian Petracca
Harrison Petty
Charlie Spargo
Jack Viney

2019
Oskar Baker
Sam Frost
Jeff Garlett
Jesse Hogan
Nathan Jones
Jordan Lewis
Jake Melksham
Corey Maynard
Alex Neal-Bullen
Christian Salem
Billy Stretch
Joel Smith
Dom Tyson
Josh Wagner
Sam Weideman

Out of contract
Harley Balic
Tom Bugg
Lachlan Filipovic
Dion Johnstone
Declan Keilty
Jay Kennedy-Harris
Dean Kent
Mitch King
Pat McKenna
Cam Pedersen
Tim Smith
Aaron Vandenberg
Bernie Vince

Free agency

When I wrote the admittedly clickbaity-titled article ‘Why Melbourne should trade Jesse Hogan in 2018’ earlier this year, my argument was that the Dees could trade Hogan for a high price while signing Tom J Lynch for free and essentially make a huge net gain.

Well, that’s not happening – as anyone not living under a rock knows by now, Lynch is going set to sign with Richmond, and it doesn’t seem like Melbourne ever made any kind of serious inquiry into pursuing him.

The big free agent they were linked to a lot during the year was Andrew Gaff.

(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

It was often said about Melbourne during the year that the club felt they had a need for more outside midfield talent, which Gaff obviously would provide.

For a while it was regularly said that Melbourne would be Gaff’s preferred destination if he did come home to Victoria, but this talk abruptly dried up after they announced a new longterm deal for Angus Brayshaw, and it doesn’t seem likely Gaff could land there now.

Could the potential departure of Hogan free up enough cash for them to come back into the conversation? Maybe, but it’s probably too late.

Instead there are a number of smaller potatoes free agents who would make sense for Melbourne.

I like the idea of Scott Lycett for them as he would provide that back-up ruck option they’re looking for but could also justify a regular spot in the best 22 given his ability to have an impact in the forward line.

It’s probably too late for them to pursue him though as by all reports he’s certain to be wearing teal in 2019.

Instead maybe it’s a good idea to pick up someone like Jordan Roughead on the cheap. Roughead has experience as both a ruckman and a key defender and while he wouldn’t be a first-choice player at Melbourne, could provide handy depth for both roles.

I also like the idea for them of picking up someone like Taylor Duryea. Duryea obviously hasn’t been the most regular member of Hawthorn’s best 22 and might only be depth at Melbourne, but it’d be good to bring in someone who can play that backline role and also brings with them the experience of having played in successful sides.

Trade period

Alright. It’s time to talk about Jesse Hogan.

Ever since he first arrive at Melbourne there has been speculation about Hogan’s future, and like Mike Brady being brought out of a cryogenic tube to sing ‘Up There Cazaly’ at the grand final, it’s just one of those things you know you’re going to see around this time of year.

However the recent rumours are the strongest they have ever been with some reports claiming that Hogan has agreed to join Fremantle on a long-term, multi-million dollar deal.

(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

Hogan is contracted for next year so the Demons do have the option of holding him to his word and forcing him to stay out the 2019 season, but if we’re operating under the assumption that he does want to go, there’s an argument to be made for trading him now.

For one, the Dees do have a relatively strong forward line setup currently if you base it around the presence of Tom McDonald and the development of Sam Weideman. It’s not as good as it would be if you had Hogan also, but it’s not going to be too undermanned next year.

If anything the departure of Hogan could help to accelerate the development of Weideman – it’ll certainly mean he plays every week. Not a good enough reason to trade him out on its own, but if he wants to go, it’s a silver lining.

More important is the fact that the opportunity to get the best trade bounty for Hogan’s departure might be this year rather than next.

To start with the fact that Hogan is still contracted now means Melbourne can make a higher demand, and the Dockers are also likely to have more to offer them.

As things stand right now it seems a pretty good chance that Fremantle will lose Lachie Neale to Brisbane this year and get pick 4, at a minimum, in return.

Melbourne could then tell Fremantle: picks 4 and 5 (already held by the Dockers), or he stays here for season 2019. Having made a similar demand with Lachie Weller last year themselves, this is language Fremantle will understand.

Having also taken two top-five picks last year, and knowing how desperately important it is to their list that they led a star key forward at some point, I am confident Fremantle would eventually blink and do the deal – perhaps with a sweetener of some kind coming back their way.

My overwhelming preference if I were Melbourne is to keep Jesse Hogan – but if the rumours are true and he wants to go home, then I reckon that is the best case scenario.

There are two other players potentially departing Melbourne this offseason, Dean Kent and Dom Tyson.

Kent has requested a trade to St Kilda who have offered him a three-year deal and you’d expect that one will get done fairly easily.

Tyson, on the other hand, is harder to evaluate. He is only on the fringe of Melbourne’s best team right now so might be interested in more opportunities elsewhere.

I suspect that Tyson’s preference would be to stay at Melbourne and work hard to earn a spot in the side. He was after all in their best side for this year’s finals campaign.

However the Dees seem happy to move him on if the opportunity presents itself – they’re believed to have offered him to North Melbourne in a deal for Braydon Preuss.

North knocked back that offer, having no more need for a fringe inside midfielder than Melbourne do, but it does seem like the Demons are likely to bring Preuss to the club.

Preuss’ management has reportedly told rival clubs not to pursue him as he has his heart set on joining the Demons.

It’s a bit of a strange one from the Preuss perspective – his frustration at North Melbourne has been his inability to get senior games, and he seems a lot less likely to displace Max Gawn than he does Todd Goldstein.

Melbourne presumably are selling him the idea that he and Gawn could play in tandem but if it does come to pass I reckon that experiment lasts maybe four weeks tops before Preuss is playing for Casey.

At any rate, the Dees’ hope will probably be that they can give North either their second-round pick this year or next for Preuss, while North will undoubtedly hope to squeeze something a little more valuable out of them.

The other player Melbourne have been heavily linked to this offseason is someone who fits their need for a mature key defender, Steven May.

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

May would be just about a perfect recruit for the Dees – he can become their lynchpin No.1 key defender with Oscar McDonald supporting him, and Jake Lever able to play a third-tall intercepting role when he makes it back from his ACL injury.

Of course May would also provide some valuable leadership to the Melbourne backline, especially if they decide to move Jordan Lewis on.

Two big questions though are would May want to come to Melbourne, and if so how can the Demons get a deal done for him.

Collingwood and maybe Hawthorn are believed to have the inside track on May so whether the Dees have a shot will depend on how open-minded he is about his future. Certainly, the Demons are an appealing destination right now.

What it might come down to is who can get Gold Coast to do a deal as Suns CEO Mark Evans recently said he that “can’t really see” how clubs are going to convince the Suns to let May go 12 months before his contract finishes.

That’s probably a bit misleading from Evans as I suspect given May’s unwillingness to commit longterm the Suns will be relatively happy to get him out of the club and avoid another year of contract speculation, but it’s clear that they want to get a good deal.

The Dees don’t have a first-round pick this year to offer so at the moment probably the best they could do is their 2019 first-round selection, which seems unlikely to be an early one, and perhaps throw in a second-round pick this year or a depth player like Dom Tyson.

I suspect if that’s the best Melbourne can do, Gold Coast will probably like the offers from either Hawthorn or Collingwood better and send May there if they can.

If they get two early picks for Jesse Hogan instead this could give Melbourne a lot more leeway – they could send either pick 4 or 5 to the Suns and maybe throw Tyson in as well and even ask for a second-round pick in return.

That’d potentially give the Suns three picks inside this year’s ‘super seven’ while Melbourne would also have one pick there and an quality key defender to anchor their backline for the next five years at least.

If they fall short of landing May, or even if they don’t, I reckon it’s worth Melbourne looking at a player like Jack Hombsch from Port Adelaide to add another option in their tall defender stocks. He’s played some really good football in the past and might do so again with a change of scenery.

Looking further ahead to 2019, I’d expect them to pursue either or both of Ed Langdon or Zak Jones next year.

Draft

Melbourne’s draft hand is obviously going to fluctuate a bit depending on whether or not they trade away Jesse Hogan, and whether they trade in Steven May.

At the moment, having sent this year’s first pick to Adelaide, they don’t have a pick in this draft until No.33, and that one is likely to go back a few places due to free agency compensation picks.

If that’s the way things remain then their dream scenario would be that someone like ruck-forward Bailey Williams slides through to this pick – pretty unlikely though.

If they do acquire some early picks from Fremantle then they’ll have a brilliant opportunity to invest in more elite youth.

In fact if they were to get picks 4 and 5 from the Dockers – likely sliding back to 5 and 6 after compensation for Tom J Lynch is given to Gold Coast – they’d be half a chance to draft both of the King twins.

Ben King. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

This would mean they can develop Max King as a key forward to replace the loss of Hogan, and put Ben King at the other end to fill their need for a key defender.

Alternatively if one or both of the Kings is gone by that point then they’re probably looking at Izak Rankine, Bailey Smith and Connor Rozee, who would all be brilliant acquisitions.

The other offer to consider making to Gold Coast would picks 4 and 5 for May and pick 2 – the Suns just might be willing to do this, and it would mean the Dees land either Sam Walsh or, more likely, Jack Lukosius.

What I said last year

“Missing out on finals this year will burn in Melbourne’s bellies all off-season. They were good enough but let themselves down. They’ll be good enough again in 2018 and I don’t expect them to miss the opportunity twice.

“In the longer term, you’d expect their list will be entering its peak in around four years or so, when Max Gawn is nearing 30 and the rest of their young talent is in its prime.

“If they’ve made more smart decisions between now and then, they should be in the flag mix for a good stretch in the early and mid-2020s. Michael Hibberd or Neville Jetta might even still be going around and able to join in the fun.”

Outlook

If given the choice between signing up Jesse Hogan for the longterm or trading him for two early picks, I would sign Jesse Hogan every time.

Yes it’s possible that you could get a net gain of talent by doing the trade – but Hogan is already just such a proven elite talent and not that far from hitting his prime.

If Melbourne want to win flags soon, then keeping Hogan is something that would really aid that cause. Replacing him with youth doesn’t necessarily reduce their chances of success, but probably pushes the timeline back a little.

If that’s just not an option, then lay down the law with Fremantle and say give us picks 4 and 5 or he is being held to his contract.

The Dockers are desperate for a player like Hogan and they might need to sit and sweat for a while beforehand, but I believe if Melbourne put the squeeze on the Dockers, they’ll crack.

Use those two picks to then either draft two of this year’s ‘super seven’ or use one to draft and one to pick up Steven May.

Really, there’s not too many ways things can go wrong for Melbourne. They have so much elite young talent right now that as long as they make smart decisions going forward, they should remain at the pointy end of the ladder for a long time to come.

The only trap they risk falling into is that of going after quick fixes to try and win now rather than simply being patient and wait for that elite young talent to hit its prime.

That’s why I would only go after Steven May if they are getting picks in the door for Hogan – otherwise it would mean they don’t take a first-round pick for at least three years in a row, which is too long to ignore the draft.

When the elite young talent they already have is at its peak they’ll still want to have some good kids pushing to be in the best 22 – keeping the mature players already in there honest, and providing some of the youthful enthusiasm that helps drive teams.

Melbourne fans have been patient for a very long time, and you can trust them to be patient a few years longer. Keeping making the same good decisions that have gotten you to this point, and soon both club and fans will be richly rewarded.