While everyone may have their opinions as to who will win Sunday night’s decider between the Sydney Roosters and Melbourne Storm, narrowing down the 34 finalists to one Clive Churchill winner is a much tougher prospect.
There may be some clear favourites for the medal, but with two quality sides going head to head, there are plenty of genuine roughies for the honour.
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This is my preview of the best bets to claim the hotly-contested award.
The favourites
For the Roosters, it’s no shock to see fullback James Tedesco rated their strongest chance of taking out the medal.
With Cooper Cronk likely to sit out Sunday’s decider, the Roosters will need Tedesco to step up and provide a much-needed spark in attack.
Cronk himself is currently fifth in the line of betting at $9, despite the fact he is under a significant injury cloud, so best to steer clear of the champion halfback.
Luke Keary is sitting at $10 and is sure to firm if Cronk is ruled out given that he will have an even bigger bearing on Sunday night’s result.
Previously, Keary rarely hit the 100-mark in kicking metres when Cronk was next to him. In last week’s victory over the Rabbitohs, however, the five-eighth posted 362 kicking metres and likely will match that number on Sunday if Cronk is ruled out.
It’s no surprise to see retiring fullback Billy Slater installed as the favourite to take out the medal.
The 35-year old is paying $4 and many joke that his name is already engraved after the controversy surrounding him taking out the Wally Lewis medal earlier in the year.
(Photo by Kelly Defina/Getty Images)
Slater’s favouritism isn’t a surprise given his strong form in this year’s finals series. The 313-game veteran has two tries, two try-assists, three line breaks and 13 tackle busts to his name from the two games against South Sydney and Cronulla.
If Melbourne are to come out on top on Sunday night, Slater is a very strong chance of celebrating his final NRL game with another Clive Churchill medal.
He will face stiff competition though in the form of a duo of Camerons.
The first is Cameron Smith, who has been installed at $5 to claim the medal. It is the only accolade that has eluded the Melbourne skipper.
The legendary rake is always in the mix, with his composure and ability to read the game proving crucial in the Storm’s surge towards their third-straight decider.
If he was to win it this year, it would be interesting to see whether Smith calls time on his career, having achieved pretty much everything on the individual list outside of cracking the 400-game mark.
The other is Cameron Munster, who was rewarded for an impressive season with the Dally M five-eighth of the year award.
Munster has excelled in 2018 despite being without an established halves partner and is on the fourth line of betting at $7.
The smokies
Tackling machine Jake Friend is currently at $51 to win the medal, which are fair odds given that a Roosters victory on Sunday night will likely be built off their defence.
Friend has topped 50 tackles seven times in his past eight games for the Roosters, including a season-high 73 against the Broncos in Round 24.
Another dark horse for the Tricolours is hitman Victor Radley, provided he starts at lock and doesn’t make a shock switch to halfback to cover Cronk.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Radley sits at $41 to take out the man-of-the-match honours. Again, like Friend, it is the work that Radley does in defence that has earned him praise in 2018.
His stinging hits have been a feature of the 20-year old’s season and could leave a lasting impression on the minds of voters when it comes to making their decision.
Melbourne forward Felise Kaufusi is a definite roughie to claim the individual prize having developed into one of the game’s most dangerous backrowers.
Kaufusi has proved a constant threat for the Storm on their right edge and would certainly be a chance if he is able to nab a try in Sunday’s game.
If you want some serious value, look no further than Melbourne workhorse Dale Finucane.
The one thing working against the 27-year old is that typically the medal is awarded to players who stand out. And unfortunately for Finucane, his work in the middle of the park can often go unnoticed.
He did score a try in last year’s 34-6 grand-final win over the Cowboys though and plays an important role in shoring up Melbourne’s middle defence.
Prediction
Even if Cronk makes a miracle comeback, the Storm are too well-drilled to let the chance for back-to-back premierships slip.
As to who will take home the medal, you just can’t go past Billy Slater in his final NRL game.
He is crucial to Melbourne’s set plays in attack and with him in the side, the Storm are a much slicker outfit.
Eden
Roar Rookie
Betting markets on subjective, non/transparent, historically biased decisions is murky to say the least.
The Barry
Roar Guru
It’s a good point. I’ve had a couple of little bets for fun but anyone expecting to fund their retirement on the Churchill...or moaning when they get stiffed...gets what they deserve.
kk
Roar Pro
Just for fun. $300 x $5 on Joseph Manu.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
In 2009 many firmly believed Cooper was best on ground..Billy got it.. In 2017 many firmly believed Cameron was best on ground ..Billy got it.. Before that Andrew Fifita got rorted out of it.. then Milford ... You can analyze,but history says the best player should be prepared for a Mal shaft..
The Barry
Roar Guru
“Slater’s favouritism isn’t a surprise given his strong form in this year’s finals series. The 313-game veteran has two tries, two try-assists, three line breaks and 13 tackle busts to his name from the two games against South Sydney and Cronulla” Yet listen to the conspiracy theorists go nuts if he does win it...they won’t have had this much fun since the moon landing or the polio vaccine. I think it’s likely to be Smith if the Storm win. Not only will he be at the centre of everything the Storm do, I think with him not having won it before the selectors will be looking closely at him. Quite often in GFs there isn’t a huge standout player and if that’s the case I think Smith will get the nod. I think a Slater or Munster blinder is his biggest risk. Kaufusi or Finucane could be outsiders. If the Roosters win and Cronk is out (maybe even if he plays) Keary will have to have had a blinder. This is a massive game for Keary. Pretty much all his career has been as a “second fiddle” half. If Aubusson is his halves partner, Keary will need to be the man with kicking, controlling and ball playing. The Storm will be gunning for him too. I think he’s got the right sort of temperament for the role but it’s a huge ask. Probably Tedesco having one of his big Origin style games is the biggest risk to Keary getting the gong. $13 is probably too short to call someone an outsider but Boyd Cordner will be digging deep for a captain’s knock.