Expansion! Is there any word more thrilling to the human soul?
Hi, I’m Joe Frost. You may remember me from such successful rugby league expansion efforts as the Gold Coast-Tweed Giants, Gold Coast Seagulls, Gold Coast Gladiators and Gold Coast Chargers.
(All right, that’ll do…)
NRL expansion is well and truly back on the agenda, with the usual suspects – a second Brisbane team and Perth – getting a fair bit of gas.
There have also been suggestions that perhaps we’re due another franchise across the Tasman or that the Adelaide Rams should be resurrected.
It’s all pretty exciting, because who doesn’t like something shiny and new?
What’s more, if we’re going to get a new team, we’ll definitely get two, because what’s the point of expanding the competition if, instead of another game to sell the networks each week, we just end up with more byes?
But while most fans and NRL HQ are pretty keen to see a couple of new teams running around circa 2022, there’s a distinct possibility that it would be biting off more than can be chewed.
1. Who’s going to play for them?
Being a Knights supporter, the last few years have been tough school.
We strung together three wooden spoons on the trot, bookended by a 12th and 11th-place finish.
It’s been a lean five years, basically. And in the leanest of those years – 2016, in which we won a single game – the blokes wearing red and blue were pretty much boys being bashed by grown men for 25 rounds.
Could be worse, though. I could be an Eels fan.
While it was a bit of a shock for it to go so wrong after finishing fourth in 2017, Parramatta were woeful last year – as they were in 2012 and 2013, when they again ran 16th of 16.
Look, someone has to come last, but the wooden spoon isn’t a pass-the-parcel deal at the moment – two clubs have claimed it in six of the last seven seasons.
So do we really think there’s enough talent that if two more clubs join, we wouldn’t end up with a couple of total dud games each week as a bunch of should-be reserve-graders get flogged?
We’d need 60 guys to fill the two 30-man first-grade rosters, to say nothing of all the young blood required in reserves and development sides.
So with the teams coming last at the moment tending to make up the numbers, I just don’t think there’s enough talent available for two extra clubs.
But even if there is…
(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
2. Who’s going to pay for them?
There’s not a much better argument for expansion than the Melbourne Storm.
They’ve established a beachhead in AFL territory, winning a stack of grand finals (some of them still stand, too) led by a few blokes who are destined to become Immortals in the years to come.
Yep, when the NRL talks expansion, they justifiably point to the Victorian capital for how it can go.
Yet for all their success – 2018 was their third grand final in a row – the Storm only signed a major sponsor on 5 March.
Ten days before their season started, the most successful team in the comp didn’t have a company willing to inject the funds needed to help them try to scrape together an overall profit.
And a profit is bloody hard to make in rugby league.
The Broncos, who are the absolute gold standard when it comes to expansion – but after 30 years do we still call them an expansion side? – are the only club consistently in the black.
(AAP Image/Brendan Esposito)
What’s more common is seeing head office come in and prop a joint up, as has been the case with the Knights, Titans and Tigers in recent years.
Calling the funds that flow down from head office a ‘grant’ is a bit rich – makes it sound as though the NRL are doing them a favour when in reality the clubs earn it by giving HQ a product to sell – but all those zeroes just cover the salary cap.
Sponsorship is absolutely required to avoid a financial loss – and, as mentioned above, most clubs still can’t turn a profit.
So where is corporate backing to prop up two extra sides going to come from if the Storm – to say nothing of all the struggles Cronulla have had finding sponsors over the years – do it so hard to find a major sponsor?
To sum up, the arguments for and against a second team in Brisbane or New Zealand, or making a truly national competition by getting franchises in Perth and Adelaide, can’t be the primary concerns.
The actual issues are whether there is the requisite talent to ensure competitive integrity and funds available so that the NRL doesn’t just prop up clubs that aren’t viable.
Expansion – I love it and want it to have happened yesterday.
But I just don’t think it’s practical.
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
Yeah jamesb, but I would ad all the non-merge teams in spotlight. Then they ‘should not be made too’, it a choice. Maybe that the only way they will survive.
jamesb
Roar Guru
I agree. Wests Tigers are in that same boat. They should permanently base themselves at Campbelltown. The two teams that should be in the spotlight are Manly and Cronulla.
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
Yes, yes jamesb. I think for two reason the dragons (if I was the king) would be safe. 1 - as you said, they have done that tough thing once before. Give them space, much like a brand new team, to work it out, build the fan base, blah, blah. 2 - Illawarra, the ‘actual’ south of Sydney, it would be nutty to not cover the population in that area.
jamesb
Roar Guru
It's quite complicated. Many moons ago, I was a passionate Illawarra Steelers fan. It took me a while to follow St.George Illawarra. Today, I am a Dragons fan. However, If the Dragons were to relocate to Perth, then i might call it a day with the NRL. I don't think a fan should be whacked twice.
M
Guest
Could not have articulated it better Papi Smurf.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
No Adam, no! NZ can barely get behind ONE team as it is. Currently the Warriors have just 16,612 members and are behind Newcastle and 5 Sydney based clubs in terms of membership numbers (in order, Rabbitohs, Eels, Dragons, Knights, Tigers and Panthers). The Warriors also have a narrow membership lead over 3 of the remaining 4 Sydney clubs. Given that the Warriors represent an entire nation (NZ) that is a particularly weak result, especially considering their membership low in 2015 when the Warriors only had 10,962 members. The Warriors home game attendance average for 2018 was 17,386 when Mount Smart Stadium holds 30,000. The Warriors were behind the Broncos, the Knights and the Rabbitohs for average home game attendance and about level with the Storm and the Tigers. Given that the population of Auckland in 2018 was 1.7 million the question has to be asked why couldn't the Warriors fill Mount Smart Stadium if Kiwis are so supportive of the Warriors and the NRL? If the NRL (National Rugby League) is really so motivated to grow the game NATIONALLY then how can it afford to prop up a struggling Warriors franchise? The answer to that question lies in the fact that Sky Sports NZ are part of a consortium of broadcasters along with Fox Sports and CH9 that signed a five-year deal in 2018 worth 2 billion dollars. I would imagine that Sky Sports NZ would have made that contingent on the Warriors being the NRL for that period at least. So the Warriors won't be going anywhere soon unfortunately as the Sky Sports NZ factor makes them one of the most lucrative clubs for the NRL and a cash cow the NRL will milk for years to come even if a relatively small percentage of the population us even interested in the game. But a second team in NZ seems out of the question for now. No doubt it can be used as a bargaining chip for the NRL next time Sky Sports NZ commits to their next deal in 5 years time. Sources: nzdotstat.stats.govt.nz afltables.com/rl/crowds/2018.html
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
That depends jamesb. I live up the top of nsw. Not lived even in Sydney since early 80’s. If for the eels to still be in the tv, they become the Perth Eels, I would still follow them. But I understand it different for the peeps living in the parramatta area.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
relevant to my comment how?
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
You hit the nail on the head "M", no doubt you have been briefed by 007. Greenberg and Beattie need to go BEFORE a credible roadmap for expansion can be devised and managed to completion. Leave it to the current administration and it would be like entrusting this crucial task to the NRL's equivalent of Harry Dunne and Lloyd Christmas (aka "Dumb and Dumber"). How IS Laurie Nicholls doing btw, Peter Beattie? LOL
peeeko
Roar Guru
Excellent question
jamesb
Roar Guru
Ok, here is a question. How do you keep fans of a folded or relocated club in the game?
Mick Jeffrey
Roar Rookie
Actually it's 66.6% sticking from 1988, this Gold Coast is a different entity (and is treated as such in the official records, much like the Newcastle team of 1908-09 is different to the modern era Knights) to the 1988 Gold Coast who had more name changes than a poorly run Formula One team.
Big Daddy
Guest
If Perth are serious about having an NRL team in WA they need to be the one that's being proactive. To achieve their goals they should be entering a team in Canterbury Cup for next year. To get 30 players to live in Perth with only 1 team to play for is a serious ask as not all players will ever get a game. You can't wait for the NRL to make decisions on something like this. Taking a SOO there is only to appease the local fans. That decision was made on the basis both Allianz and ANZ stadium would be both pulled down. You have to force the NRL into decisions not wait for them.
Average, ordinary, everyday commenter
Guest
Darren Lockyer's idea of 17 teams isn't too bad, as there are more breaks for teams, but still the same amount of matches. Since a relocated team would not work in Brisbane (who would support the Brisbane Sharks?), relocate a Sydney team to Perth and get a new team in Brisbane. There also won't be as much of a hassle with new talent and sponsors with only one new team.
matth
Roar Guru
Well the 1967 expansion has stuck, we got 50% out of the 1982 expansion. We have 100% from the 1988 expansion. The 1998 expansion has stuck as well. So actually it can work and historically it often has.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
It's not an expansion. Brisbane is an exhausted market
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Look at the 17 listed for teams this week. There simply isn't 2 players per club of standard to give up. Super League players are in the Super League because they are not NRL standard They don't want to prop up clubs, they have seen the ponzi scheme the AFL are running in western Sydney and the Gold Coast. How much do you think a Fijian team will cost? And what income will they bring in?
no one in particular
Roar Guru
There are not enough players for 16 teams, let alone any more
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Where are these players then? They aren't playing NRL or NSW Cup or Qld Cup
Don
Roar Rookie
So...a game in NZ each weekend is a good thing but a game in Brisbane each weekend at the best RL stadium in Australia in a city of 2.5M isn't? Of course a second team in Brisbane is expansion. It's not expansion geographically but is is necessary expansion to realise the market potential in the region. Brisbane 2 is the easiest decision to make - every business plan that has been presented stacks up and all the modelling the NRL have done stacks up. Let's just get it done for 2022. Brisbane 2 in '22!