Gold Coast were supposed to be the easy-beats this year. Before their one-point loss to St Kilda, they were 25-point underdogs on the road.
In Round 2, they were 32-point underdogs to the Dockers before winning by three, and last weekend, the Doggies were 33-point favourites to the team that would eventually win by five.
That’s already a demonstration that they were 97 points better than the odds makers believed them to be this season – and I wish I could tell you that my ELO rating system had a significantly better opinion of them, but I’d be lying. I had them at least two-goal underdogs in every game.
How can oddsmakers still make the Suns the 18th choice to make finals? I understand long odds against a premiership – sorta – but just on the basis of what we’ve seen so far, you can’t think of a single team in the league that seems less likely to make the top eight right now.
A win this weekend moves the Suns to 3-1 – and all it would take to make finals would be about a .500 run through the rest of their fixture. Is that so unimaginable?
I mean, do you think it’s more likely that Carlton goes 13-9 the rest of the way? Or even Melbourne, if they lose again this week, considering the struggles they’re having? Or even Richmond, if they’re as ineffective without their stars as they have been so far?
Actually, I can answer my own question with a 12-month reset: the 2018 Suns went 2-0 to start the worst road trip in footy history, and then were 3-2 after five games, only to finish 4-18 after a four-month campaign.
Yes, the Suns have had good starts to their season before. In fact, in six of their eight seasons of existence, they’ve had downright promising beginnings.
Suns sing the team song after winning the round two AFL match between the Gold Coast Suns and the Fremantle Dockers at Metricon Stadium on March 31, 2019 in Gold Coast, Australia. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Let’s agree to arbitrarily exclude 2012 and 2015, in which they had more “normal” seasons. Or at least what seems “normal” when your club’s lifetime record is one draw short of a perfect one win per four games, or 25 per cent.
But excluding those two, the remaining six full seasons (2011, 2013-14, 2016-18) show a remarkable tendency to start strong and fade out towards the end.
In four of the six seasons we’re examining (four of eight all told), Gold Coast actually won their first game of the year, a 50 per cent average overall. Twice in the last four years, they’ve gone 2-0 (last year and 2016), so being 2-1 isn’t all that exciting to Gold Coast fans.
Let’s look at those six seasons, year by painful year.
In 2011, their very first year of existence, you’d expect them to start slow and improve as the season went along, but instead the Suns won “prematurely” in their fourth and sixth games (versus Port and Brisbane, respectively) to go 2-4 on the R7 ladder and sit squarely above those two teams along with the Saints and Kangaroos, none of which could boast two victories yet.
Then, the newbie Suns finished the year with a 1-15 spread, a fourth quarter burst against the Tigers the only thing preventing a whitewashing the rest of the way. Final record: 3-19, and a low enough percentage to prevent Port Adelaide from snatching the wooden spoon from their grasp.
Will Brodie of the Suns celebrates scoring a goal. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
In 2013, they got a floundering St Kilda in Round 1 (winning 90-77), and then ran off three wins in R5, R6, and R8, against the Giants, Demons, and Bulldogs (by a combined 136 points!) to reach 4-4, their first visit to .500 after R2.
They sat in 12th place, only one game and percentage out of the final eight at that point of the season!
After that they fell back to earth, going 4-10 the rest of the way with wins over North, Collingwood, and Melbourne. They finished with a massive 146-63 win against GWS that was the largest win in their history until an 86-point victory over Hawthorn in 2017 edged it out.
In 2014, with reigning Brownlow medalist Gary Ablett Jr, the Suns were the it team of the season. They won games one and three to merit a winning record for the first time, and then ripped off five straight to sit in third place.
They were one game back of Port Adelaide and tied with Ablett’s once and future club, Geelong, at a remarkable 7-2.
Then the league caught up with them. Over the next five games, they lost four of five to powerful opponents all in or vying for the eight (the one win, ironically, against Geelong).
Ablett went down with a shoulder injury from a first quarter tackle that knocked him out for, basically, the rest of the season, although the rest of the team rallied in his support and pulled off a cosmic victory, 80-75 versus Collingwood. Without Ablett, though, they won just once more and finished at 10-12 – well out of finals but still with their best finish ever in 12th place.
Gary Ablett is a constant injury concern. (AAP Image/Jason O’Brien)
In 2016, they came out as a juggernaut, winning their first three games by a combined margin of 141 points! They sat in second place, just behind Sydney on percentage, and looked like a legitimate threat to not only make finals but make some noise once they got there.
After that reality bit them on the behind. From R4 through R23, they had one burst in July where they managed to win three out of four games – their only other wins of the season. They went 3 and 16 to finish the season 6-16.
In 2017, again, they started 2-2. It was a narrow loss to Brisbane, a big loss to the Giants, and two wins over Hawthorn (that 86 pointer) and Carlton. They defeated Geelong in R7 to get to 3-4; they won games against the Eagles and Hawks (again) to get to 5-6.
After reaching 6-8 with a win versus North, Ablett never played at full strength for the Coast again, and the Suns didn’t win a game the rest of the way, ending on an eight-game losing streak to finish 6-16.
In 2018, you know what happened: an upset in a swimming pool in Cairns against the Kangaroos, a victory in R2 at Carlton, and a win on the road over Brisbane (their fifth of ten straight games away from Metricon) put them at a surprising 3-2, in a nine-way tie for fourth place.
Then, only a monumental upset of Sydney at the SCG, 88-64 in R18 kept the Suns from finishing the season on a 17-game losing streak, instead ending with a 1-16 stretch that left the team at 4-18 for the year.
The Gold Coast Suns have started those six seasons at 24-18 (a 57.2 per cent clip) but finished them with stretches totalling 13-77 (a mere 14.4 per cent rate). That’s a phenomenal drop and a remarkably consistent plunge over a wide range of different rosters – and maybe that’s the point.
The Suns have consistently been one of the youngest squads in the league, understandable when you’re a start-up operation but not so much in your ninth year in the AFL. The lack of staying power for players in their system has created this culture of young players who start the season with a burst of energy and enthusiasm, playing the coach’s game plan well and knocking off what on many occasions have been easier opponents front-loaded into the schedule for some reason.
But as the season progresses, and the younger guys get into stretches of the season when they’ve never had to play – games sixteen, twenty, that sort of thing – they get mentally tired, less able to focus when things get tough, less likely to maintain their discipline and coaching strategies.
Will that happen in 2019? Only time will tell. But I have much more faith in the 2019 version than in those eight previous years, and the reason why comes from my career teaching band.
This team might still fade down the stretch, but don’t expect them to fall off the cliff as in those past seasons. The Dew on the field is the sign of a bright spring ahead.
Grints
Roar Rookie
I was "lucky" enough to see a lot of the Suns in their formative years by virtue of the times they were scheduled to play, my access to Foxtel and a horrible wife who only left me alone when I was watching footy - I really enjoyed seeing them rise, their crowds steadily grow, the club slowly become competitive. It all fell apart as we all know, a coach sacking that should never have happened, a mentally weak captain who ran away with his tail between his legs when things got too hard, constant injuries to key players, and not getting enough out of "senior" players brought into the club to help the young fellas out. I never thought Rodney Eade was a great choice for them and eventually he was replaced, but by a coach who first and foremost has begun restructuring the list with guys who want to be there, want to make QLD their home, want to play in a successful Gold Coast side. Whilst this strategy wont nessesarily win them a flag or even see them in finals in the short term its about building a culture that is effectively non existant at this stage and with a strong culture the club will become competitive, which will make it easier for them to attract high end talent, and easier for them to keep high end talent in a red and gold jumper. Ive been "lucky" enough to see big chunks of their first 2 games, and the entire round 3 clash with the dogs and even though they will at best win maybe 3 or 4 games for the rest of 2019 its clear they are on the right track. They are playing a good competitive brand of footy and the longer you play that style the more games you give yourself a chance of winning. The more games you give yourself a chance in the more you eventually win. The suns no doubt will get thrashed a few times between now and the end of August but this is a new dawn for them and if they can stick it out then the rewards will eventually come.
Dean
Guest
Your view came of the game came off as disgruntled fan who thought it should of been a walk in the park. Give the suns some credit, bounced out of the gate and stayed strong while under relentless pressure. Under estimating the Suns or over estimating your bulldogs?
hawker
Guest
They're showing that they can be competitive with teams who you would expect to be around the same place on the ladder. If they won 6-7 games for the year that would be a solid year in my book. 8 wins or more would be exceptional.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
You've got a good imagination George but I love the passion.
IAP
Guest
The ladder flatters the GC. They just got over the line against a terrible Aints outfit, and the Dogs were flat for the whole game except the last 10 minutes and still only just lost. A decent team on its game is a good 7-8 goals better than GC. They'll still finish bottom four.
anon
Roar Pro
They beat a couple of ordinary teams let's not get too excited.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Yes it is. Expect the season to correct it out.
Macca
Roar Rookie
" Macca, I hope you are a bit worried" Always.
TomC
Roar Guru
I agree that the challenge for the Suns is to create an environment where the talented young players they have want to stay there. I also agree that they've made a good start to that end. But it's probably more important how they run the season out. They've still got Jack Martin and Peter Wright among others to re-sign this year, and of course they'd want Lukosius, Rankine and Ainsworth to re-sign beyond 2020. They may need to show a fair bit more to create that stable list of players they've never had.
George13
Guest
Sorry for double post. As a guest, the system did not like me.
George13
Guest
A bit one sided view of Dogs fan? Suns jumped Dogs and dominated 1st qtr. The 2nd qtr was the opposite. Suns survived with a bit of luck and a great defence. The rest of the game was equal. Dogs got 4-5 unbelievable calls in the last quarter that allowed them to almost get the win. 27 vs 12 free kicks reflects a bit Melbourne umps bias. Contested possessions and tackles close, Witts dominated hit outs but Dogs had a huge advantage in clearance which they were not able to take advantage of. Suns pressured and spread better. Dogs were inaccurate in front of goal, yes but so were Suns! Most Suns goals were hopeful shots? Nonsense. I suggest you watch Suns goals again. There were some great combinations resulting in a handball to a free player in goal square. In my opinion Dogs have an elite midfield and will play finals this year. Suns will be competitive this year and will surprise some teams especially at Metricon. It should be a good game this weekend against Carlton. I hope you are a bit worried, Macca :-) This is a different team from last year, much better physically and playing roles.
George13
Guest
A bit one sided view of Dogs fan? Suns jumped Dogs and dominated in first quarter. The second qtr was the opposite, Suns survived with a bit of luck and a great defence. The rest of the game was equal. The last qtr Dogs got 4-5 unbelievable calls that allowed them to almost get the win. 27 vs 12 free tells a bit about Melbourne impact on umps. Yes, Dogs were inaccurate in front of goal but so were Suns! Most were hopeful shots? Nonsense. I suggest you to watch Suns goals again. Some were results of great combinations ending with a handball to a free Suns player at goal square. Contested possession, tackles close, Witts dominated hit outs but Dogs dominated clearances though could not take advantage of them. Suns pressured and spread better than Dogs. Dogs have elite midfield and for me they will play finals. Suns will be competitive this year and will surprise some teams especially at Metricon. It should be a good game vs Carlton this weekend. Macca, I hope you are a bit worried :-)
DingoGray
Roar Guru
They are punching above their weight at the moment. But can’t see them being able to maintain that due to the experience of this list. I don’t think they end up the rabble they did last year. Good on Dew for the work he’s done so far
Macca
Roar Rookie
It has to be remembered that there were 2-1 after 3 last year as well.
Aligee
Roar Rookie
I think what you are trying to say is a champion team will beat a team of champions which is an old footy adage that i first heard playing junior footy and of course transcends across life.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
The Suns lost by 1 point to St Kilda and should have lost by at least 6 goals to the horribly inaccurate Dogs. Most of the Suns points were rushed or hopeful shots, whereas most of the Bulldogs misses were very gettable shots, 30-45 metres out on minimal angle, mostly set shots. Including multiple misses from the usually reliable Dickson and Bont. Of the 14 points kicked by the Dogs, 10 of them were sodas. The only good performance by the Suns was their narrow win against the poor-travelling Freo. I think the Suns have improved their competitiveness but were coming from a long way back and are still bottom 4 material.
George13
Guest
No point going back to previous years. This is a new team. Normal schedule is a big difference. New coaches and most importantly a new performance team is another important factor. Suns improved physically especially in running capacity. In all 3 games so far they run out game better (St Kilda -even with 2 players on one leg from 1st qtr, Freo) or equal with opposition (WB). Yes Suns are the the youngest team but they got depth, 30-35 players fight for best 22, average age best 35 is 24 years - not bad. Team is also united, players plays their roles, play for each other, no Lynch/May ego crap. They are also more familiar Dew's plan. Contrary to general opinion, Suns also have a lot of talent, 12-13 players who were in the system 2-5 years and some are stepping up - Bowes, Fiorini, Martin, Ballard, Powell, Macpherson, Weller, Sexton, Wright. Mature recruits are also great assistance. People who predicted no wins - time for apology :-)
Gordon P Smith
Roar Guru
Sorry for the length of that story, friends - but without that story, the entire premise of the article is lost. This is a different situation than those other six years, in my opinion. THESE Suns have a shot to stay afloat in August. I don't know that they will, but they've got a better chance than their predecessors.
Gordon P Smith
Roar Guru
To complete the thought about the parallel to my band teaching career: The Suns have done something that I accidentally did as a young band director taking over a dysfunctional school program back in 1992. There were about thirty kids in band in a high school of 600 – a small but serviceable number. Ten were good musicians, and twenty were relative novices. My insistence on treating everyone like they were important to the program irritated many of the already good musicians, who had basically run the ship under the previous milquetoast director. (No offense meant to him – he was a wonderful human being who had no degree in teaching and had been drafted to babysit the program after the previous instructor vanished unexpectedly. A long story; moving on.) So, many of the seasoned musicians quit after my first year there. What I was left with were about four of the “good musicians”, but the vast majority of the novices with a year under their belts, plus a host of “recruits” I’d trained from the junior high school program who were now first-year high school students. The key was that every one of them WANTED to be there and had “bought in” to what we were trying to accomplish. We ended up with about the same sized band, but suddenly the program was significantly better and achieved a great deal more, despite the apparent loss of talent, because now every member was “rowing in the same direction”, so to speak. In a typical locker room or clubhouse, you have about ten percent who lead WITH the coach; ten percent who lead the rebellion AGAINST the coach, and eighty percent who decide which set of leaders to follow. The numbers may vary, but the principle stays true. After that first year, my rebellious leaders were gone, and suddenly, the team was freed to accomplish so much more than when people were pushing in different directions. I look back on the 1993 year as one of the most successful programs I taught in my thirty-year career. Last year (and maybe ALL of the years before that), there were key players who simply didn’t want to be in Queensland. Now, I can’t think of one. And it shows in the way the play this year – unselfishly, making the extra pass to a player who can do more damage or score more easily. They throw their bodies into the fray, they fight for every inch of grass. The only team I can absolutely say they won’t outwork this season at this juncture is their neighbor up the coast – and I cannot WAIT to see the next Q-Clash in round six!