So we’re into the race for the Super Rugby finals. With almost every team in contention, let’s rank their run home.
For the sake of spacing and sanity, we can rule out the Sunwolves, while locking in the Hurricanes and Crusaders for playoff spots.
#2, Brumbies
The surprise packet here, but after Sunday’s win over the Sunwolves they’re topping their conference, and you’d be brave to tip against them in finals footy.
They pause for a bye, before the Bulls, Sunwolves, Waratahs and Reds – all very winnable games.
Finals: Yes.
Tevita Kuridrani of the Brumbies. (Photo by Tracey Nearmy/Getty Images)
#3, Sharks
The Sharks are a weird old one, while they lead their group, they’ve less wins than their SA counterparts, Bulls, Jaguares and Lions, having cashed in on the bonus points.
Home matches versus the Lions and Hurricanes shape as a challenge, not to mention a trip to Capetown and Argentina.
Finals: maybe.
#5, Highlanders
Their once-almighty home fortress looks a bit iffy this year, with a loss to the Hurricanes and draw with the Chiefs, but it’s hard to imagine a finals series with less than three New Zealand teams, and ruling out the Blues and Chiefs, that means them.
They sit on 29 points, a fraction above the remainder of the top right, on 28, but they’ve still got an SA tour to tick off.
Finals: yes.
#6, Rebels
It’s a yes from me. They’ve knocked over Aussie counterparts the Brumbies (admittedly at a weaker time) and the Reds, twice, with a win over the Sunwolves and narrow loss to NSW.
With competition for backline positions, not to mention with Matt Toomua returning, and the ability to match it with any team, you’d be brave (and dumb) to tip against them.
Finals: yes.
#7, Bulls
Surprising good this year; they’ve toppled the Sharks both times, have 1/2 versus the Stormers, and accounted for the Lions. The Jaguares are their bogey team, but shouldn’t have any issues with a derby game in the finals.
Finals: yes.
#8, Jaguares
I really don’t think so. They’ve been much too inconsistent, especially in home games (4/6) where they have a massive travel advantage.
They spend three more weeks on tour, with the Hurricanes, Waratahs and Reds, and despite sky blue woes, I don’t see them getting more than bonus points.
Finals: no.
#9, Lions
The first team I rank from outside the finals positions, the Johannesburg locals are firmly middle-of-the-road. Coming off three consecutive grand final appearances, it was obvious early on that they weren’t the team of previous years.
They’re also the top ranked team with a points differential minus zero, and are fourth in the SA conference. With the Highlanders, Sharks, Stormers, Hurricanes and Bulls to come, I err on the side of caution here.
Finals: maybe.
#10, Stormers
The Capetown locals are last in the Republic’s conference, and are part of the five win club. With a 4/6 win-loss within their group, it’s outside the conference that their troubles start.
They lost to the Hurricanes, Blues and Reds on tour, before an upset victory versus the Rebels, but the Brumbies spoilt the party on the return home.
Both South island New Zealand teams loom, before the Lions, Sunwolves and Sharks.
Finals: maybe.
#11, Reds
Five wins gives them a buffer over the lower ranked sides, and while one of those was against the Sharks, two were against the Sunwolves.
Jock Campbell is making his starting XV debut. (Photo by Anesh Debiky / AFP)
Last round’s loss was a missed opportunity to top the group, but their home stretch is very manageable.
Clashes with the Chiefs and Blues shape as winnable, along with a Brumbies rematch, which they’ll be hoping goes the same way as the 36-14 win earlier.
Firstly, they’ll have to topple the Waratahs this Saturday, and the Round 16 Jaguares match may be a handful for a young team.
Finals: maybe.
#12, Chiefs
Though they lead the Waratahs, Blues and Sunwolves, they’ve still got a bye, and it’d be a remarkable turnaround for them to play postseason.
Finals: no.
#13, Waratahs
The only thing that gives me hope is that they’ve beaten the Crusaders – the only team to do so.
Other than that, soft losses to the Sunwolves, Blues and Sharks remove all credibility.
Finals: no.
#14, Blues
All their wins this year have come in a short period of bliss for long-suffering supporters. They’ve beaten the Sunwolves, Highlanders, Stormers and Waratahs, but will need one heck of winning streak to see them home.
Finals: no.
Cantab
Guest
This article did not age well.
Pinetree
Roar Rookie
Every other team in the competition has more table points than the Rebels outside of their conference, so if that is overstating, so be it. The Brumbies have gathered 18 table points outside of their conference, the Sunwolves 6, Rebels 5, so I guess if the Rebels can match it with any other team, the same can be said for the Sunwolves? Last 13 games played against opposition outside the Aus conference, the Rebels have won 3, which is on par with the Sunwolves.
Rhys Bosley
Roar Pro
There are 8 finals spots and only 5 NZ teams. It wouldn’t happen.
numpty
Roar Rookie
I think both the original comment in the article and this rebuttal overstate their positions. Yes, the rebs have only won one game against international teams. But one was a loss to the lions by one with the ref as their 16th player and another was against the canes in a game they were within 7 with 10 to go and they didn't show up for the first 20. I do think they can match it with any team, but can they do it consistently and over 80? They are yet to show this promise.
Chris
Guest
Finger crossed the Tahs finish last and don't make the finals.For the good of Aussie rugby this needs to happen.
Neel
Roar Guru
I don’t know about the Jaguares. I reckon they will make it to the quarters.
Double Agent
Guest
Super Rugby wouldn't last long if all the finals matches were just NZ teams.
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
Agree Rhys, that Lucas looks very interesting as a talent. Obviously most of us haven’t seen him at 10. But time will tell.
Rhys Bosley
Roar Pro
As an Aussie I don’t like the conference system either, it just results in our teams trying harder against each other than against the foreign teams. That isn’t good for the quality of the game here in the long run. The only issue I have with a pure round robin, is that a team like the Crusaders that hosts more finals than most, will get all the cash from those and the dominance will be reinforced. I don’t see that as healthy for the comp either, having one club heavily advantaged because they are more cashed up. My solution would be for round toning finals but with profits, gate and broadcast, to go back to SANZAAR for even distribution to all teams.
samalavich
Roar Rookie
Not for me. I agree it's not 100% fair etc etc but it's an international comp and seems right that as many nations are represented as possible. For all nz rugby we have M10 cup. I hope the rebels and the jags make it to the finals, want the canes to win, but will be happy so long as it's not the crusaders, or the tahs....
Waxhead
Roar Rookie
@Lloyd This aussie agrees with you. NZ are greatly disadvantaged by the comp rules & setup. Last 3 yrs they should have got 4 teams in the finals with home games imo
samalavich
Roar Rookie
Seriously Neil really? The impact on the country was huge, but the impact was a result of the attacks not by any perceived political posturing.
Waxhead
Roar Rookie
@ Neil Yeah I give that Tahs win zero significance. Tahs were VERY lucky that night :)
samalavich
Roar Rookie
The rebels have been very inconsistent yes but suggesting that they only have one game plan means you didn't catch the game they played against the hurricanes. First half they tried to match the canes with running helter skelter rugby, it did not work. Second half they tightened up, took all the speed out of the game and had the better of the canes (still not enough). I must say though that they have been disappointing this year they have a great team on paper.
Pilferer
Roar Rookie
The canes should finish 4th an get a home quarter. Wether or not the have to go to Africa , Australia or Argentina could be make or break for them.
Tooly
Roar Rookie
South Africa is a raffle. NZ. Only another NZ team will beat the Crusaders at home. Brave Aussie conference. A bit the same as the SA one, a raffle. It should be the Rebs but they have a discipline problem. The Brumbies are on song and could pull it off. They would be our best chance in the finals. Tut Tahs; As usual they don’t come up to their pretences. Reds; Next year. I have no idea why you keep referring to Toomua as a star recruit. He has never been more than handy and is now a provincial bench warmer.
Bourkos
Roar Rookie
Mmm not 10. All 10s around at the 30 mark we need new exciting 10s coming through
Lloyd Dobson
Guest
As a New Zealander I can't wait to see the end of the conference system. I understand the rationale (promote the game, TV earnings, $$$ etc), but once again it looks like at least one New Zealand side will have to travel to hostile territory for a quater, semi-final or even final against a team that hasn't really earned the right to have that advantage - have a look at the points distribution on table. I can hear the howling from AU and SA now, but if the suituation was reversed I can't imagine they would be silent on the matter. Surely consistency accross the season should be reawarded? Why not have the top four on points with home ground advantage regardless of the conferences? (a moot point now I guess).
numpty
Roar Rookie
Agreed both are exciting prospects, but I'd ideally like to have candidates with a couple of SR seasons already under their belt knocking on the door for selection.
jeznez
Roar Guru
Harrison looks good for the 20’s as well. Needs a couple more years but there is potential on the horizon.