There will be few easy fixtures in what shapes as the most even World Cup in a long time. But Australia must bank early wins against weaker opponents to protect themselves against an incredibly difficult finish to the group stage.
Australia have been blessed by a favourable draw which will see them face the five lowest-ranked teams in the World Cup in their first six matches. Their campaign starts today with a match against Afghanistan (10th in ODI rankings) followed by the West Indies (8th), India (2nd), Pakistan (6th), Sri Lanka (9th) and Bangladesh (7th).
The Aussies can ill afford to drop any of those matches against lower-ranked opponents because they end the group stage against three very tough sides in England, New Zealand and South Africa, in that order. Australia have an awful recent record against those three teams since the last World Cup, with a win-loss record of 10-24.
England’s aggressive batting has troubled Australia, South Africa’s quicks have given them headaches, and the Kiwis so often seem to be inspired by the opportunity to defeat their Trans-Tasman rivals.
Australia are fortunate that, in theory at least, their favourable draw should allow them to build momentum and get to grips with the conditions before facing that trio of formidable teams. They also need to be convincing in victory over those lower-ranked teams to boost their net run rate, which could be decisive in qualifying for the semi-finals if the tournament is as even as many of us predict.
Australia must start today by thrashing Afghanistan. While Afghanistan are minnows no longer, having performed admirably to qualify for this ten-team World Cup, Australia should thump them, just as England did in their final warm-up. England exposed Afghanistan’s paper-thin batting line-up in that match, reducing them to 8-92, and then sprinted to a nine-wicket win with a whopping 32.3 overs remaining.
The last time Australia played Afghanistan, in the 2015 World Cup, it was like an exhibition match. Australia piled up a monstrous 6-417 before going on to record the second-largest win in ODI history by a margin of 275 runs. Almost half of the Afghanistan team that copped that hammering are quite likely to play today.
Off spinner Mohammad Nabi, all-rounder Samiullah Shinwari, quick Zawlat Zadran, and batsmen Najibullah Zadran and Asghar Afghan all played in that match and look set to front up again today.
But Afganistan, quite clearly, have developed enormously since that crushing loss. They have been offered many more international fixtures in the intervening four years and many of their players have benefited from playing in T20 franchise cricket around the world.
They also now boast two of the world’s best young white ball spinners in Rashid Khan and Mujeeb Ur Rahman, as well as the ultra-accurate Nabi.
Australia’s batsmen must be proactive against the Afghan spinners, to look to pressure them as the English batsmen did so successfully. While Mujeeb didn’t play in that match, Rashid and Nabi combined gave up 66 from their eight overs.
If Australia’s batsmen go into their shells against these slow bowlers, as they often have against good ODI spinners in recent years, that will offer Afghanistan their most likely route to victory. That’s not to suggest Australia should seek to thrash boundary after boundary from the Afghan spinners.
But they also cannot prod and poke from the crease, something they did far too often last year in England against home spinners Adil Rashid and Moeen Ali. Controlled aggression. That is what the Australian batsmen must display against Afghanistan’s trump card tweakers today.
Australia need to build up their net run rate in this match and then, on Thursday, dispatch the Windies just like they did in their warm-up fixture last week, which they won by seven wickets with 69 balls to spare. That will set Australia up for the blockbuster against India in eight days from day.
dat
Roar Rookie
Without accounting for any games being washed out would 5 wins be enough to go to the next round with a good NRR?
dat
Roar Rookie
They had been going the opposite route most teams take and played all their best players, in almost all their t20i matches, in the last year or so.Probably cause they were the no:1 team in that format and wanted to continue their undefeated streak in the format as long as they could. The aust odi series started just 5 days after the psl ended so some of their players may have been worn out and needed some rest,while it also gave them a chance to test out the outside contenders for the final few spots in the wc squad. I think the more concerning issue for them has been, how the players gets selected into the squad . Most of the players aren't getting picked for their List A record,rather on how well they are doing at the psl. Wahab basically made a comeback out of nowhere despite not playing odi cricket for 2 years, just cause he bowled some good yorkers at the psl. Mohammad Hasnain played more t20i matches than List A and First class games combined and yet he is there for the same reason as Wahab. India also went through a mini phase in early to mid 2010's where they kept backing players from more successful ipl teams to become all format players despite poor domestic records and that didn't go well for most of them ,Pakistan are now going through a similar phase these days.
Rellum
Roar Guru
Ch92 I guess at 10.30
matth
Roar Guru
Damn autocorrect!!
jameswm
Roar Guru
How can we watch it?
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Obviously in such an even tournament no loss is ok but one way of looking at it is that if Australia win the 4 games that they really should - Afg, SL, Bang, Pak - then to make the semis they'll probably need to win only 2 of their 5 tougher games (Ind, Eng, SA, NZ, Windies). Six wins from nine matches should be enough to make the semis.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Pakistan have completely fallen apart in the last nine months - they have a 3-16 win-loss record in that time, They may well rue their odd choice to rest many of their key players from that home series against Australia, which they lost 5-0. Toying with form like that soon before a World Cup is folly.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
I was worried about the direction you were taking with this piece Ronan, till I read the phrase “controlled aggression”. Yeah as I wrote Paul it's about the Aussie batsmen not being too defensive, too negative against the Afghan spinners because that is what has got them into trouble against spinners in recent years. Too often they'd let the dot balls pile up and are then forced into premeditating a big shot to release the pressure. Smith and Warner are very good at not doing this. But Finch, Marsh, Stoinis and Khawaja are more susceptible to it.
Loïc A
Guest
And New Zealand as well! Ok it was only a warm-up but Windies beat New Zealand by 91 runs in their last encounter. And well, what's good for the goose is good for the gander... As an aside, on which warm-up match Australia beat Windies last week? As I recall Australia's were England and Sri Lanka (both won) and Windies' were South Africa (washed out) and New Zealand (won).
Peter Warrington
Guest
they could injure Zampa and call in Short. injure Stoinis and bring in Wade. injure Khawaja and bring in Lynn. aim for 600! Warner Finch Smith Lynn Marsh Maxwell Short Wade Carey Cummins Starc There. that's my final team. 650 possible on the right decks.
JayG
Roar Rookie
What a brilliant idea! It's a shame nobody in the Aussie think tank has thought of this
JayG
Roar Rookie
Yeah, Afghanistan are no longer pushovers. Obviously, these English conditions don't really suit their style of play but even so, their outings against the bigger sides have been encouraging. They defeated Pakistan in the warm-up game last week. They also beat Bangladesh and Sri Lanka held India to a tie in the Asia Cup last year. I agree with you that in the subcontinent, Afghanistan would have posed a real threat to Aus. It will be interesting to see how they go in the WC. As maccaa62 says, they will surely surprise one team and you don't want to be that one. I have the Saffers lined up as the big fish team they might edge past mostly because of their historic difficulties playing spin
Peter Warrington
Guest
bat first. stack the batting. throw the bat. tonk the hell out of it. 9-500 is better than 6-499. aim to break england's 481 and get everyone pumped. the roll them for under 200. rinse. repeat.
Tooly
Roar Rookie
Don’t sledge them !
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
The Aussie top order played the spinners pretty well on that recent sub/c tour so that's a positive sign. You'd have to think that Warner (if he plays) and Smith will strengthen our spin batting as well. I just hope they all play the conditions and don't try to reach any particular score. If they go into the game thinking they want 350 rather than just playing it ball by ball things could go very wrong quickly. They might go sideways anyway, these guys are GOOD bowlers, but if they play sensibly we should be in with a decent chance of winning this game. .. I agree we should probably send them in if we win the toss but it's not without it's down side. If the Afghans end up batting out their 50 overs that will rough the pitch up a little bit and make their spinners even more dangerous. Just saying...
AREH
Roar Guru
Luckily Australia have several excellent players of spin as people highlighted on here during the week - considering they'll potentially face 30-odd overs of it tonight. I wonder if that may sway the selection in favour of S.Marsh, but that said I think Khawaja has put those demons behind him recently. Both carry terrific ODI form after the last 12 months, so whoever misses will be unlucky
Fox
Roar Guru
I agree – this is danger game for Australia – IMO they have the best ODI spin attack in the world and it is as good as any pace attack in its own right. In fact, if this game was in sub-continent you might just have the odds about even. But Australia in the past, and as you rightly point out, have gone into their shells against world class spin but I would add that many of the Australian batsmen are not high quality players of spin either and sure as hell not of this quality. All three of their spin bowlers have plenty of guile and skill through the air – not just off the pitch. And no batsmen scares them either because they know how good they are themselves. But…and it’s a big but – I think they need to bowl first and put the Australian batsmen under pressure early – they do no want Australia’s pace attack getting the best use of the pitch conditions. But if they bowl first – then this game could get interesting – 30 overs of world class spin that doesn’t rely solely on turning wickets, but have clever deception through air and it could get interesting – I can’t see Australia’s lower order playing this spin attack well at all – they will need the top order to get runs and put the spinners under pressure and three of the top five have had issues with genuine world class spin before today. Smith and Warner need to fire, or at least one of them does good with support because as I say, I think the technique of the Australia lower middle and lower order against spin will get seriously found out against this trio, just as Afghan batsmen may, against the Australian pace attack. Either way, I would be surprised if they were pushovers if they get to bowl first. Rashid Khan is very quick through the air for a leggie and has a devastating wrongún’ as it moves quickly of the pitch and one that even Pakistani batsmen recently said was tough to pick out of the hand. But they must bowl first or it could get ugly very quickly for their batsmen in English conditions
Rellum
Roar Guru
The odd game out there Ronan is the Indian game. Are you counting that as a must win or are you bugeting a loss in that one.
TheCunningLinguistic
Roar Rookie
I presume you meant the 'Windies'? Though I agree, the Windows do look good! ;-)
Sgt Pepperoni
Roar Rookie
Bowling first would be handy for aus