Australia can move to the brink of qualifying for the semi-finals with a win today, while Bangladesh need a victory to stay alive in this World Cup. Bangladesh have only beaten Australia once in the history of ODI cricket, from 20 matches, but they are now a consistently dangerous outfit no team can afford to take lightly.
Key strategy: Bangladesh should target Australia’s support bowlers
Star Aussie quicks Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins are in blazing touch, but beyond that Australia’s attack looks very vulnerable at present.
Opposition teams should be looking to be relatively cautious against that pair, denying them wickets, and aiming to get after their support bowlers. The likes of Nathan Coulter-Nile, Jason Behrendorff, Kane Richardson and Adam Zampa all have been below their best so far in this World Cup. Meanwhile, Australia’s all-rounders can bleed runs when attacked.
Sri Lanka paid the price for being far too cautious against all-rounder Glenn Maxwell in Australia’s last match, allowing him to send down 10 overs for just 46 runs on a good pitch for batting. This made life easy for Australian captain Aaron Finch, who could rotate his other bowlers just as he wanted. Bangladesh need to target Australia’s third, fourth, fifth and sixth bowlers, taking them on from their first overs to try to scramble Finch’s plans and force him to return to Starc and Cummins earlier than he’d like.
Key Bangladeshi: Shakib Al Hasan
Shakib entered this World Cup with a strong case to be considered the world’s best all-rounder, taking into account all three formats. Yet he remained an uncelebrated cricketer compared to the likes of fellow all-rounders such as England’s Ben Stokes and India’s Ravi Jadeja.
This World Cup has been Shakib’s moment, the time when he has made himself undeniable.
No player has been more valuable to this midway stage of the tournament than Shakib. He has taken on the responsibility of batting at first drop and churned out big and important runs. He is the leading runscorer in the tournament, with 384 runs at 128, and has also taken five wickets with his accurate left arm spin. Shakib is playing like a man with a point to prove. And he has extra motivation to shine against Australia due to his very poor ODI record against them, having averaged just 22 with the bat from eight matches.
(Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
Key Australian: Mitchell Starc
Starc with the white ball is a menace for any batsman on the planet. But he is particularly challenging for left handers, who are used to the ball sliding across them from the angle created by right arm bowlers. When Starc swings the new ball away from left handers he opens up their defence, bringing the close-in catchers into play. And when he gets the older ball to tail back in to left handers then bowled and LBW are on the agenda.
This is particularly relevant because Bangladesh’s top three all are left handers – openers Tamim Iqbal and Soumya Sarkar, and superstar Shakib. The equal leading wicket taker in the tournament so far, Starc is in ominous form. If he runs through this Bangladesh top order the match could get one sided. But if he can’t Bangladesh are in with a big chance of an upset.
Wildcard players:
Bangladesh: Soumya Sarkar
A naturally gifted shotmaker, Sarkar has threatened several times to explode in this World Cup. Against South Africa he sprinted to 42 from 30 balls and then choked one down the leg side. Versus the West Indies he cantered to 29 from 23 balls before guiding a catch to slip with a lazy shot. Opposed to New Zealand he glided to 25 from 25 balls and then coughed up his wicket with an ugly hoick.
Sarkar has the talent to make a major impact in this tournament but, unlike Shakib, he currently lacks the composure and shot selection. Australia’s opening bowlers will need to maintain a tight line because Sarkar loves to free his arms.
Australia: David Warner
This new Warner, the one who nurdles and nudges, is altogether unfamiliar. Having made a career as a belligerent strokemaker, Warner has gone into his shell in this tournament, scoring at just 4.6 runs per over thus far. How long will this last though?
I have a gut feel that the veteran left hander will revert to type sooner rather than later. Some time before the knockout stages he will cut loose and won’t look back. Given Bangladesh’s relatively weak pace attack that may just be in this game.
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Peter Warrington
Guest
oh well, got his 150 in the 130's. you got this prediction just about right, Pete.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Yes, and the decision not to pick Hazlewood (or Handscomb) when Jhye went down is looking sillier and sillier.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
I'm certainly no fan of Richardson. Never really rated him and didn't think he should have been in the WC squad. That injury to his namesake certainly hurt us. Jhye Richardson is looking a really good package who would have filled that third seamers role for us very well.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Bias or no bias, he's also just not as good as NCN. Almost every key bowling statistic (avg, econ, SR) across every form of professional cricket the two of them have played bears this out. And I say this as someone who likes the way Kane goes about his cricket.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
You are right, Richardson isn't from WA, so he's never going to get as much of a shot as NCN and Behrendorf!
IAP
Guest
I’d say we have far too much quality, that’s why we will win big. Bangladesh are minnows and we are blue whales. The only teams that can beat us are England and India, and that’s only because of the size of the grounds; we play on big grounds and our batsmen are conditioned to play accordingly; the other two play on roundabouts and slog. When it comes to playing actual cricket only Kohli comes close to our batsmen.
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
Interesting point about Shakib al Hassan being potentially best all rounder in the world. His batting averages in Tests and ODIs are better than Stokes’s and his bowling in ODIs is significantly better on paper. However, it’s noticeable that his batting average in Tests is below 30 against Australia, England, India and South Africa and boosted by playing nearly half his games against the Windies, Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka. Similarly ordinary averages against the top teams in ODIs. I suspect if we did an apples vs apples comparison with Stokes adjusting for opponents we might conclude that Stokes just shades Shakib overall.
hilsnz
Roar Rookie
Definitely a crunch match against a dangerous side. Their top order left handers need to be contained so for me, Lyon is a must and I'd seriously consider the surprise factor of Behrendorff opening with Starc. Depends on how they assess the pitch. It does swing around a bit at Trent Bridge so NCN may be the better option. As for the batting, we need a normal Warner, a smart Maxi and some guts and intent with both bat and ball from Stonis.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
That's what worries me about tonight's Bangers clash. If Starc/Cummins don't penetrate early, I'd be backing Bangladesh because I think their top/middle order outclasses our remaining attack.
Shakir Ahmed
Guest
Bangladesh is going to create a big upset today on the Aussies I believe
The Bush
Roar Guru
Yep, I fully agree Chris.
josh
Roar Rookie
A bit, and yet we are still winning, but it's not overly inspiring. But I guess all you need to do is just win.
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
It would be nice to see one or two Australians really flay an attack as Morgan did to Afghanistan. Depends if pitch conditions allow it of course. But Bangladesh are a potential threat if our guys don’t bring their A game. They bowl cannily in ODIs as they showed against SA and Windies and did well against NZ too. If they beat Australia all talk of the semifinalists being decided will be out the window, especially with washouts always on the cards. Bangladesh have already played some top teams. If they beat us, Australia could end up having to beat all of England, NZ and South Africa to make the semis. I wouldn’t put my money on that happening at the moment.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Win easily? How would you say AUS matches up with BAN?
Jeff
Roar Rookie
I suspect we will score big, bet the question is how big do we need to go. The Tigers batting is fast scoring and can be explosive, plus they bat deep. So I'd be chasing, if Finch would be so kind as to win the toss.
JamesH
Roar Guru
If Khawaja isn't opening (which I still think he should be) then they should definitely play Marsh. He's a safer bet at 4, which allows Smith to stay at his preferred number 3 spot.
JamesH
Roar Guru
It's becoming a bit of a pattern, isn't it?
JamesH
Roar Guru
I should add, I'm assuming NCN is fit to play.
JamesH
Roar Guru
While NCN is on shaky ground I can't see them picking Richardson over him. He's the one bowler that is 100% below NCN in the pecking order. I suspect NCN will pip Behrendorff because Langer massively rates his batting but who knows. Based on Langer's comments about not being able to field a spinner with Stoinis out, I also think they'll go for a spinner now that he's back in the side - probably Lyon, given Bangladesh's lefties and Zampa's poor form. ... NCN/Dorff Starc Cummins Lyon/Zampa
Jeff
Roar Rookie
If Shakib, Mossaddek and Mehidi are all selected and deliver about 25 overs, then assuming UK/SM are coming in at 3 or 4, I think S Marsh over UK given Usman's history against offspin (and Marsh's strength is probably against the turning ball). Plus Marsh is better in the field. So Shaun for me.