The national selection panel is due to announce its Ashes squad on Saturday, six days ahead of the opening Test at Edgbaston.
For mine, Peter Siddle needs to be among the names read out by chief selector, Trevor Hohns.
I would have him in the 17 alongside Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and comeback man, James Pattinson as the five-man pace arsenal.
Jhye Richardson would likely have been a walk up start had it not been for injury.
He is set to play his first match since damaging his shoulder in the UAE in March this weekend in a Twenty20 tournament in the Northern Territory.
A week out from the first Ashes Test he is no chance of making the cut.
Pattinson has been in rampant form since returning from his most recent injury woe.
He played the last seven matches of the Sheffield Shield season for Victoria, claiming 26 wickets at 18.9.
In 2017, squeezed in around his seemingly ever-present injuries, he cut a swathe through the English County Championship during a brief five match first-class stint, capturing 32 wickets at 12.0.
By all accounts he bowled beautifully in the first innings of the current intra-squad match at Southampton, beating the bat with regularity and claiming 1-16 off ten overs and removed Marcus Harris and Marnus Labuschagne in his opening spell in the second innings.
His first-class record is impeccable with 261 wickets at 21.6.
He was a dominant force in Test ranks before injury cut him down.
After being player of the match in two of his first three Tests he amassed 17 Tests in which he claimed 70 wickets at 26.1.
He may not be as sharp as his early days but his place in the squad, and I would think the first Test, is secure.
Cummins is an automatic selection.
He has assumed the mantle as Australia’s premier red-ball bowler since throwing off his persistent injury issues.
Twenty Tests have netted 94 wickets at 22.0.
He was at his lethal best again in the current intra-squad match with 5-24 in his first stint at the bowling crease with a red ball this campaign.
Pat Cummins is one of Australia’s new vice-captains. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Hazlewood has also been a victim of the Australian injury curse.
Diagnosed with a stress fracture in his back at the end of the India Test series last summer he failed in his bid to be fit for the World Cup.
He has been nursed back into the fold through the recent AUS A tour of England.
His returns have been modest but his previous record in England – 16 wickets in four Tests at 25.7 – should he him selected in the squad.
His high action and stump to stump line should again be effective at stages throughout the series if he is in the eleven.
Starc is coming off a personally exhilarating and record-breaking World Cup.
After a summer largely of discontent, he recaptured his best red-ball form in the final Test of the Australian summer with match figures of 10-100 against Sri Lanka at Canberra.
Seemingly, he is back at the peak of his powers.
However, I see his selection in this Ashes series as a genuine case of horses for courses.
And that is where I feel Siddle comes firmly into the equation.
His style is perfectly suited to England conditions and his record in the Old Dart shows that.
He is a seam up bowler who works the channel on and around off-stump.
If there is anything in the pitch he will exploit it with his nagging style.
Before joining the current expanded squad he turned out in eight matches for Essex where he captured 34 wickets at 20.0.
Peter Siddle for Victoria (Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
Last county season his seven-match stint with Essex produced 37 wickets at 16.4.
In the first innings of the intra-squad match he took 4-31 off 14 overs.
His Test record on English soil has been solid – 43 wickets at 28.4 in 11 Tests.
His last Test appearance in England came in the final match of the 2015 campaign at The Oval – his only game of the series – where he took 2-32 and 4-35.
While other pace bowlers in the expanded pre-Ashes squad have put in some solid performances ahead of the final squad being named none have the body of work in England that Siddle possesses.
Jackson Bird had planned to play county cricket for Northamptonshire in 2014 but was forced to withdraw with injury.
After being overlooked for the 2015 Ashes series he had a six-game stint that year with Hampshire during which he claimed 19 wickets at 39.7.
His one Test in England was at Chester-le-Street in 2013 where he returned figures of 2-125 in a 74-run loss.
Chris Tremain has been the leading wicket-taker across the past three Sheffield Shield seasons and Michael Neser is coming off a fine season for Queensland in which he took 33 wickets at 22.0 but neither of the pair have been tested in English conditions prior to this current Australia A tour.
This will be an interesting Ashes series pitch wise, as it will be the latest one has ever been held.
It could be expected that the pitches will lack the traditional green tinge that England decks are renowned for being so late in the summer.
Yet, the opening day of the England-Ireland Test at Lord’s overnight provided plenty of assistance for the quicks.
If any of the upcoming Tests are played on green seaming pitches I would have Siddle in the eleven alongside both Cummins and Pattinson, ahead of both Starc and Hazlewood.
Siddle’s approach could prove influential on conducive surfaces and more penetrative than Starc’s full throttle approach.
On more docile pitches I would lean towards Starc and his more explosive pace and potentially a greater prospect of old ball swing.
When 17 wickets fell for just 201 runs on a green seamer on the opening day of the intra-squad match Starc was the least successful and the most expensive of the quicks with figures of 0-38 off nine overs.
Will Mitchell Starc get a run in the first Test? (AAP Image/Hamish Blair)
Across the board, all out pace bowling in English conditions has not proved overly effective for Australia.
Mitchell Johnson’s 12 Tests produced 38 wickets at 36.6; Brett Lee’s ten Tests 29 wickets at 45.4; and to date, Starc has taken 29 wickets at 31.2.
There will likely be a time to unleash Starc during this Ashes series but I would not discount using Siddle in his place when the pitches carry a tinge.
barry
Guest
Siddle over Starc was unforgivable as was batting first in the final test
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
Isn't another "wonderful thing" about The Roar that anyone can make a critical comment? (When it doesn't get moderated out of course). I agree with what you're saying, that the bowling needs a cunning medium to cover for the mercurial Starc, but I'd prefer the in-form and farrrr better bat Neser to Sidds. I disagreed with some of your reasoning. F'rinstance; "His returns have been modest but his previous record in England – 16 wickets in four Tests at 25.7 – should he him (sic) selected in the squad. ". This is a variant of The Peter Principle. You are selecting someone on past form until they fail *and* ignoring *current* form. You've placed quite an emphasis on 'English experience'. Couldn't one argue that this selection criterion has been significantly diluted over the last two Oz seasons with the introduction of the Duke ball into the Shield? "His [Hazlewood] high action and stump to stump line should again be effective at stages throughout the series if he is in the eleven." Not a reasoning disagreement; opinion. Imo Hazlewood can only be described as a "stump to stump" bowler if there's six stumps at each end. Imo he'd bowl 4/6 balls an over at an easily leaveable line outside off with the new ball. (Is there a bowlers' pitch map available anywhere?) "Starc is coming off a personally exhilarating and record-breaking World Cup.". Where, like he frequently does in Tests, went missing when he was badly needed in the last two games. And finally... Could you have a word with whoever it is who keeps putting the strident and terrifically ridiculous "must" in headlines.
Jero
Roar Rookie
You nailed it, 13th Man.
badmanners
Roar Rookie
Yeah, McGrath was a dud.
Glenn Mitchell
Expert
The wonderful thing about The Roar is that anyone can write a column. Perhaps you should give it a go Qwetzen and share your accumulated wisdom.
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
Hey Glenn, Did you actually write this? I ask as your thoughts are usually eminently sensible and fair, ie. like mine.
MarkD
Guest
If Harris isnt good enough than neither is Bancroft. Bancroft avg only 30.9 with no hundreds from 8 matches and Burns , who is the current incumbent, avg 40.1 with 4 hundreds from 16 matches. I honestly don't know what Burns has done to be treated as an after thought.
The Knowledge
Roar Rookie
Warner, Bancroft, Labuschagne, Smith, Patterson, Carey, Payne, Cummins, Pattinson, Starc, Lyon. Harris is not good enough Test avg 32, Burns seems to be the fall guy. Khawaja is maybe not ready for the first Test. Carey scores runs and finds a way, with a brittle batting line-up he may be essential. The 3 man pace attack will run through England and Hazelwood will find a way back once fully in the swing of bowling again.
Munro Mike
Roar Rookie
You certainly won't find me defending the Mitch Marsh extended on the job apprenticeship!! There's a big difference for sore/stiff Starc to play in a 12 v 12 game with plenty of bowling options where he's bowled about 20 overs across 3 days - - to reverting back to tests and bowling 20 overs in a day if required. It'll be interesting - - first of course we need to see the 17 man squad.....then the test to test selection approach. I'm just hopeful that they take more of a whole of squad approach than an anointed XI approach.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
The lords pitch definitely had more runs in it second innings , they almost often do from the matches Ive been to over the years but not always if the conditions stay cloudy and damp. Im hoping the selectors are on to that but they often don't make enough changes to the pitch and conditions when Australia tours England . Langer will be all over it I hope and he's got a lot of experience playing there so hopefully he won't be afraid to rotate even if it is coming off a win
Insult_2_Injury
Roar Rookie
If he was cleared to play with strains, aches and pains, then I can see the selectors saying he’ll benefit more finding form against Sri Lanka than in the Shield. Considering the 15 Test leeway Mitchell Marsh got from the selectors to find his feet, I can see the selectors allowing an out of sorts bowler come good. Anyway it worked. It’s a shame he’s picked up a niggle again.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Head's performance against the English Lions will probably see him through straight into the XI
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
I wouldn't be picking Siddle in the squad. Mitch Marsh and Michael Neser can do what he does...plus a bit more.
Jero
Roar Rookie
That’s actually 100% how I see the squad too, 13th Man. I guess there may have been talk about a 17th member in order to rush Jhye Richardson in, but given how well Neser performed in the first dig they may just give it to him as due reward. The only thing I would add is that I have such confidence in Bancroft that I would gladly see him shuffled down to five if they wanted to retain Harris as opener. Not his preferred or usual slot, but I reckon he’d get that job done too. I think he could also cover for Khawaja at three too, if he doesn’t make it back in time for Edgbaston.
13th Man
Roar Rookie
Yeah I think you are right, Wade didn't take his opportunity today and although I rate him higher than Head I'd expect them to give Head first crack. Likely squad: Openers: Warner, Bancroft, Harris Middle Order bats: Khawaja, Smith, Head, Wade, All Rounders: Labuschange, M Marsh Keeper: Paine (wade as backup) Fast Bowlers: Cummins, Pattinson, Starc, Hazelwood, Siddle Spinner: Lyon If they pick a 17th squad member maybe Neser?
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Ive certainly liked Head in the one day team in the past and thought he may step up but his runs in england in Australia have come against some ordinary teams. I think this all australian game was a good dosage of reality for them all
Pierro
Roar Rookie
On balance I think thats all correct I’m really 50/50 on the position . The duck and one run agains the best attack he’s faced on english soil on pretty replicated wicket all be it a bit extreme worry me immensely though. How do the inexperienced batters like pucowski, laburchagne and carey eek out more runs than the experienced line up in smith, burns, patterson and head. Granted the bowling attacks were varied a bit and batting first was harder for sure. I think the answer lies in the fact that a few of the best performers have been playing the county season and the world cup in england so are more used to the pitches. Explanations could be that simple. Warner/Carey world cup. Laubauschagne and bancroft both played county all summer. We may not want to bat first in some of the test matches which is another thing i can’t believe myself saying. Sun or Cloud conditions first day will be huge factor in deciding whether to bat or bowl first.
TheCunningLinguistic
Roar Rookie
Is 93 not out good enough?
Kopa Shamsu
Guest
So the A side defeats the "experienced" side. With that, my 15 man squad is --> Openers - Warner, Bancroft, Harris. Middle & lower middle - Patterson, Smith , Head , Lazania, handscomb, Paine. Bowlers - Cummins, Pattinson, Neser, Siddle, Lyon, Hoff/Starc(With bitter taste, i aint convinced with either of them).
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Bancroft is looking the goods here. I think he has locked in the openers position.