For the pragmatist, England’s performance at Lord’s, while impressive, was fruitless and earned them nothing. Australia retained its 1-0 lead, and are one win away from retaining the Ashes.
But for others, even the more hardline Australian fans, it’s hard to refute that the sequence of events last week didn’t represent at least a strong warning shot.
That all-important cricketing buzzword, ‘momentum’, has swung to the hosts’ favour, largely on the back of Jofra Archer’s brilliance.
On a tangible level, his influence at Lord’s was stark. Archer eliminated, via the short ball, Australia’s biggest asset for at least three innings this series. But on a more subconscious, lasting level, he has likely instilled a sense of trepidation in the Australian batting line-up.
Not a fear, nor a panic. The way Pat Cummins and Peter Siddle played Archer for the 40 minutes immediately after Smith’s retirement showed that even Australia’s tail lenders are a laudably gutsy bunch.
But subconsciously, the knock-on affect of his performance may just provide that split second of doubt when coming onto the front foot which, at his pace, could mean the difference between remaining at the crease or trudging back to the rooms.
It’s easy from the cheap seats to believe elite sportspeople can and should be able to clear their head and move on from an intimidating experience. But those in the cheap seats have never faced a rock-hard projectile flying at their face at 155km/h.
Mike Tyson’s quip that ‘everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth’ rings true in this regard.
Steve Smith was struck on the neck by a venomous Jofra Archer bouncer at Lord’s. (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
As impressive as Archer was at Lord’s, a performance that rightfully earned a large percentage of newspaper inches in the aftermath, England have tightened the ship in other ways. And it’s for this reason Australia’s biggest Test awaits at Headingley.
In Ben Stokes the hosts possess (in Smith’s absence) quite clearly the most in-form batsman of both sides. His 115* in the second innings was glossed over quickly after Archer’s double strike in the first six over of Australia’s second innings. But it rightfully earned him player of the match honours, and continues a period of strong form for several months.
In fact, since England’s loss to Sri Lanka in the World Cup, Stokes has averaged an incredible 88.2 (five ODI innings, four test). When he is dominant, England invariably win. The all-rounder rode his luck at Lord’s in the second innings, but importantly made Australia pay.
Along with the form of Stokes, Jack Leach’s inclusion has quickly addressed the spin worry out of Edgbaston.
Leach was dangerous on day five at Lord’s despite his own admission that he ‘wasn’t at his best’. Importantly, he went for just 19 in his 11 overs in the first innings. In the Somerset tweaker, England now have a reliable option that can both tie down an end early in the match, and strike later as footmarks develop.
Stuart Broad’s form is another reason England look poised to strike in Leeds. Broad’s output had dropped in the last 12 months and, had Archer been fit for Edgbaston, would likely have felt the chop.
In the English winter he took just four wickets across three Tests against Sri Lanka and the West Indies, and in the five first class matches before facing Ireland had taken just nine wickets at 43.3. But he’s returned to form with a bang, with ten wickets in the first two Tests. Notably, Australia’s most senior batter in David Warner has fallen victim to Broad three times already.
Stuart Broad (AP Photo/Jon Super)
While the form of Stokes and Broad, plus Leach’s inclusion, further boost an England XI now inspired by the new pace sensation in Archer, they aren’t without issues of their own. In Jason Roy and Joe Denly the hosts possess a top order that – like Australia – is prone to being two down early in any given innings.
At six and seven the dangerous Jos Buttler and Jonny Bairstow are, at present, a shadow of the dominant figures they cut in other formats, although Bairstow notably found some touch at Lord’s.
But on the whole, the home side have ironed out the early series kinks. And with Smith’s absence in Leeds, it’s bleedingly obvious that the tourists’ biggest challenge starts tonight.
Leebola
Roar Rookie
Ouch.
birdhead
Roar Rookie
Yeah I agree we can't drop him (reluctantly), the problem is we make head or Cummings captain they become a target and not being ready cld be very detrimental to their careers. I reckon Paine is gone post ashes. Hopefully he does what burns has done and edge his way to a cpl of 50's. Not sure but I dont think Paine has made 2 fiftys in a FC match ever (ie Carey this week) !
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
Yeah, a couple of weeks ago there was a bit of a push on here to get Paine out and I said at the time I didn’t really think it was a good idea. Still don’t tbh and my reason is we don’t have any obvious captaincy candidates. Head & Cummins are the vice captains but I can’t see either of them taking on the big job just yet. No doubt it won’t be too long before Tim calls it a day but I think CA would have wanted to stick with him until Smith becomes eligible again. It’s not an ideal setup but I think it’s better to do that than give him the boot and ask one of the others to take over as skipper in the middle of an ashes series. Just my 2 cents worth. Cheers. ps. I don’t blame Paine alone for the toss decision. He would have had heaps of advice from Langer, Smith and probably plenty of others too. They all got it wrong and it starts from badly misreading the pitch.
matth
Roar Guru
So our best players won us a test. Yes that’s a negative. We might have been skittles for 150, but we weren’t. England might have been skittles as well. We were comprehensively outplayed in Day 5, but salvaged a draw only 6 down. As opposed to England on day 5 of the first test where they collapsed like a house of cards.
Simoc
Guest
Keep your rose coloured glasses on Paul. Love your what-ifs you call facts. The great pretender.
Simoc
Guest
Your dreaming Matth. Saved by Smith twice in the first test and bowled to victory by Lyon. Batting first at Lords we might have been skittled for 150 and be 1-1. We were comprehensivly outplayed on day 5 at Lords, which is the form going into test 3. But dream on; we're gonna need dreams to come through, not to be 1-1 after this test.
birdhead
Roar Rookie
very good points DB. Im sure there were a few involved in the decision but have no idea why Paine won toss and bowled in the sun on day 1 of the second test..?? Bcs of this though, their bowlers were fresh day 2 (13 overs), 3 (24 overs) and 4 (fresh from the start). this conversation abt getting their bowlers into their 3,4 and 5th spells doesnt really count when they are bowling 5 overs and resting for a day.. i said before the series started, Paine is a very good glovesman but does not have the temperament for a test batsmen. Also how is he so bad with the DRS ? when there is an appeal and there is an option for DRS, you see root very busy asking everyone for an opinion using every bit of the 15 secs while paine just doesnt seem too interested at all ?! Added to this, test cricket is all about momentum, and we were on top in the first inn of test 2 with paine and smith batting, then paine got out to a soft dismissal (exactly the same way S Marsh has done on numerous times), and gave the momentum back to them. i really wish he wasnt captain so we cld have brought in carey. I know it's harsh but when they have woakes coming in at no 8 (paine at 7) and is a better bat than paine, over 5 tests we will be tested..
Overandout
Roar Rookie
Also seems that the English batsmen found a way to counteract Lyon. On the last day, both Buttler and Stokes were playing back to him a lot more and Lyon looked a lot less threatening (also compared to Leech). Let's hope the GOAT can find a way to respond and keep the wickets ticking over. Stokes is the quality all rounder the selector were hoping Mitch Marsh would turn out to be.
MaxP
Guest
We shall see. Even the most ferocious bowlers can be carted when the conditions aren’t good/ form drops. And it can happen from match to match: Johnson? Harmison?
Jason
Roar Rookie
Harris for Warner and I'd agree.
ols
Roar Pro
One wish granted.
Ken
Guest
Starc must come in. Fight fire with fire. Starc, Cummins and Pattinson, and Harris for Bancroft.
Bruce
Guest
Yep, aussies missed a few tricks in that 4th day evening session. England could have been 5 or 6 down for less than 100. Then it would have been real pressure on the tail 5th day morning.
AREH
Roar Guru
But when in form, he is probably their second best test bat - with a proper technique and more than just a slapper at 5/6. His test record doesn't really show it, however, and the gap in class between Root and the rest of their test batsmen is alarming.
Raimond
Roar Guru
England is only in this series because our top order is as bad as theirs.
Boo-urns
Roar Rookie
Momentum has been shown to be a giant furphy again and again. Bill Barnwell’s NFL writing goes into quite a bit of detail (here’s an admittedly dated post https://grantland.com/features/bill-barnwell-theory-momentum-football/) It would be better to say, Australia don’t have smith so advantage England this test?
Boo-urns
Roar Rookie
Wow Steve Smith has a big impact on the market.
Boo-urns
Roar Rookie
Momentum has been proven over and over again to be a myth. A myth constructed by lazy journalists (not suggesting this article) to turn discrete events into a narrative.
David Schout
Expert
I can't predict the future, but I can very much predict that Archer's bouncers will never, ever be 'mid height balloons that are carted to the boundary'
Machiavelli
Guest
Catches win matches. Drop Stokes twice an innings and he will make a significant score. Our batsmen need to man up. Our bowlers need to return the chin music with interest. Bring it on. I can't wait for tonight.