Earlier in the week I mapped out an unlikely pathway for the Bulldogs to make the semi-finals.
There were a few variables but I wrote about what I saw as the path of least resistance. Path of least resistance is, of course, a relative term. Even the straightforward route to September required the Bulldogs to win all three of their games and have 11 other results go their way.
A 14-game multi placed this likelihood at a tick under 13,000/1.
While there are two games remaining in Round 23, the Storm versus Titans and Raiders versus Sea Eagles clashes don’t have a direct impact on the Dogs’ season, so we can review the weekend that was and start looking towards the horizon.
All in all, miracle week one went exceptionally well. Canterbury’s season could have been over on Thursday night, but they cleared the first hurdle by winning a typically furious encounter against the Eels.
The Dogs also needed upset victories from the Cowboys and the Rabbitohs who duly obliged. Three from three. Only 11 to go.
Come Saturday the Bulldogs required an even more unlikely result. The Warriors to win at PointsBet Stadium (aka Shark Park). Close.
42-16 to the Sharks. This put the Dogs into sudden death.
Originally, Dogs fans were rooting for the Knights to beat the Tigers. That changed with the Sharks’ win and suddenly we’d donned the black, white and gold. Fortune was again on the Bulldogs’ side with the Tigers recording a huge 46-4 win.
So the mighty Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs’ unlikely semi-final hopes somehow roll on into the penultimate round.
(Photo by Ashley Feder/Getty Images)
From here there are no second chances. Every result has to go this way.
In Round 24 the Bulldogs need to win against the Cowboys in Townsville and the Eels to beat the Broncos in Brisbane. The biggest risk of all comes with the Titans somehow turning their season around and beating the Knights in Newcastle. At Old Boys Day, no less. From there it’s the slightly more certain Roosters to beat the Panthers and then the 15th-placed Dragons over the Tigers, both games at the SCG.
Should all of that occur, Round 25 looks relatively straight forward requiring the Dogs to beat the Broncos on Saturday afternoon and a super Sunday series of scores with the Sharks to win at Leichhardt and the Knights to bounce back against the Panthers.
All of a sudden the odds have come into about 165/1. Only the most optimistic fan would view that as a positive, but it’s far better than the 13,000/1 we were at a couple of days ago.
Bring on Thursday.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Yeah fair call. I worked on the premise that our f/a was so bad that any team finishing on 24 as well would beat us. Through this run our highest score has been 20 and our biggest winning margin 8. It’s a coin flip whether you’d prefer to rely on a Titans win or the Dogs making up 70 points in differential. I’ll still be cheering the Titans on this weekend and anyone playing the Broncos, Panthers and Tigers. Good to know there’s another out though.
a
Roar Rookie
Warriors are no chance for finals now
John
Guest
For bulldogs to make the finals, it does not have to be this way. All results above do have to go our way in regards to bulldogs brisbane and tigers, however the titans do not have to beat the knights. The knights can win this game but then lose to the panthers in round 25 leaving them on 22 points at the end of the season. The panthers who sit on 22 points at the moment who have a for and against of -89 in round 24 are up against the roosters, Bulldogs at the moment are on -160 for for and against. If the panthers get smashed by the roosters, this could drastically reduce their for and against and potentially, bulldogs can overtake penrith on 24 points with a better for against with wins against the cowboys and brisbane by more than two tries for example in regards to whatever the for and against is. In saying this, it would be much easier if the titans could beat the knights however this is a small chance of happening. However stranger things have happened
Chris.P.Bacon
Guest
"The past two seasons have had false dawns at the back end of the year." I know what you what you mean Baz though I don't have the same sense of foreboding for 2020 as I did for this year. I'd love to think that we've turned a corner and it's on wards and upwards from here (...though I'm typically a half glass full type of person). I'm hoping for solid improvement through 2020 and for 2021 (or 22) to be a 'finals' season - which I think is very possible. Go Bulldogs! :)
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
They showed great spirit in the antepenultimate round, so good luck to them. They have grown from boys to men. Go The Dogs.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I’ve got to admit I was losing the faith during the season. There was a period where the Dogs didn’t seem to be having a dig and Pay was dropping players then recalling them the next week. It seemed pretty directionless at times. I didn’t have huge expectations for this season. I wanted the players to have a dig, the team to find an attacking style and avoid the spoon. Players definitely having a crack over the last couple of months. Attack is still very clunky...even in this winning streak we’ve only been scoring 12-16 points typically. Despite the calculators and odds I’m trying to not getting excited about next year. The past two seasons have had false dawns at the back end of the year.
SR1
Roar Pro
I kinda hope the Bulldogs make the finals even though I don't support them... It would be a great story, before getting knocked out by Manly or Souths.
Griffo 09
Roar Rookie
I thought my Cowboys round 1 win against your boys was a solid performance and boded well for the season ahead. The Dragons back end of the season has certainly put that win in context. I tried to do a similar thing last week to Barry and find a scenario where North Queensland could make the finals.... and lo and behold it was impossible. Too many teams that we need to lose had to play each other. Here's to 2020 and more hope next year!
Noosa Duck
Roar Rookie
Never had the dogs as the "spooners" this year but what Dean pay has done with these blokes has even surprised me. I had then around 10-12 on the ladder by seasons end and I had a lot more faith in Dean Pay than many Dogs supporters. However it just goes to show that if you can only afford a Rookie coach do not expect miracles and if you support the bloke you may be surprised what you can achieve. You will note that a lot of coaching operations and front office operations have also taken place at the Bulldogs this season as well all coinciding with a massive lift in overall moral within the club. Some hard decisions were made to move on some loyal people to freshen up the club and it has paid big dividends. He may not win the Premiership, he may not make the 8 but in my book Dean pay is the coach of the season .....however it's a pretty good effort to have inherited the situation he did and take it to where it is now in a season and considering he has only 45 NRL games under his belt as senior coach.
Griffo 09
Roar Rookie
Perhaps you would have preferred this weeks events at Newcastle to happen next week. Nevertheless, they effects might carry over into another week of football. Where there's life there is hope, hey. Incidentally TB, Thursday night will be the last ever game at Willows Stadium (1300Smiles). The Bulldogs played the Cowboys in the first ever game at that ground. How is that for symmetry?
Insider
Roar Rookie
Love your optimism Baz, and the passion for your club! Dean Pay has done wonders, I’ve always said the Doggies ball movement was exciting to watch, they are reminding me of the great 80’s and 90’s sides, when a team wants the same thing and are all on the same page things begin to grow, foundations have been laid and the Bulldogs are beginning to rise ! Good luck ,,,,,, you need it and clearly deserve it
Paul
Roar Guru
At least your blokes are giving you both hope and enjoyment at the back end of the season, TB. My Dragons gave up the ghost weeks ago - again.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Haha. Not me. After a season of “I hope we don’t get the spoon. I hope we don’t get the spoon. I think we’re going to get the spoon. We’re getting the spoon. We might not get the spoon” all of a sudden miracle results to make the eight look pretty good. Despite the articles and calculations, I’m completely aware of and realistic about how unlikely it is but I’m going to enjoy the ride while it lasts - which could be only one game. I certainly got more enjoyment out of round 23 than I would have thought possible a month ago.
Emcie
Roar Guru
It's not the falling that kills you, it's the sudden stop at the end.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I can’t see it happening mate but you never know
matth
Roar Guru
It’s the hope that kills you.
Duncan Smith
Roar Guru
Even though the Knights have again become a joke surely they won't lose at home to the Titans.