Could Steve Smith actually be the best after Bradman?

By JGK / Roar Guru

In recent months cricket fans and media have become somewhat obsessed with Steve Smith, both with the amount of runs he has been scoring and how he’s been doing it.

While that is not surprising given his eccentric yet stupendous Ashes series, what is surprising to me as someone who has been obsessed with Steve Smith’s run-scoring ability for a few years now is why it took everyone so long.

In particular there have been a number of articles and opinion pieces first querying whether – and then mostly accepting it to be true – Smith may well be the second-best Test batsman of all time. On averages alone there is a strong case for this but, as we know, averages aren’t everything. For instance, does anyone seriously think that Ken Barrington was a better batsman than, say, Ricky Ponting?

So as he approaches Bradman’s career runs total I thought I’d take a look at a few other measures of batting performance and see how Smith rates with some of the other contenders to the ‘best after Bradman’, or BAB, title.

(Mike Egerton/PA Images via Getty Images)

I’m going to be slightly heretical and deem that only players who have played 40 Tests or more qualify. That of course excludes two absolute legends in George Headley and Graeme Pollock, who might otherwise have BAB claims.

For what it’s worth, I had always considered Sir Jack Hobbs and Sir Garfield Sobers to be joint holders of the BAB title, but over the years the likes of Wally Hammond, Sachin Tendulkar and Brian Lara could also have made serious claims to the title.

So what’s the case for Smith? Let’s start with some routine career-based measures.

Highest career averages

  1. Donald Bradman: 99.94
  2. Steve Smith: 64.56
  3. Herbert Sutcliffe: 60.73
  4. Ken Barrington: 58.67
  5. Sir Everton Weekes: 58.62
  6. Wally Hammond: 58.46
  7. Sir Garfield Sobers: 57.78
  8. Kumar Sangakkara: 57.41
  9. Sir Jack Hobbs: 56.95

I’ve stopped the list at Hobbs because the gap between Smith and Sutcliffe is the same as the gap between Sutcliffe and Hobbs (and with quite a list of batsmen in between). So while averages aren’t everything, Smith’s is starting to become compelling.

The next measure, runs per test, considers a player’s influence on a match. Only six players have scored 90 runs per Test.

Runs per Test

  1. Bradman: 139.92 runs per Test (6996/52)
  2. Smith: 104.07 (6973/68)
  3. Sangakkara: 93.23 (12400/134)
  4. Weekes: 92.81 (4455/48)
  5. Lara: 91.95 (11953/131)
  6. Hobbs: 90.17 (5410/61)

Smith could go scoreless in his next nine Tests and still be on this list. And if I look at the gap between Smith and Sangakkara of 10.84 runs per Test, I see that there are a further 17 batsmen within 10.84 of Sangakkara.

(Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

Fifty-plus scores per Test innings (a measure of consistency)
Those who have scored a 50 in at least 40per cent of their Test innings

  1. Bradman: 52.50 per cent (42/80)
  2. Sutcliffe: 46.43 per cent (39/84)
  3. Smith: 42.74 per cent (53/124)
  4. Hobbs: 42.16 per cent (43/102)
  5. Barrington: 41.98 per cent (55/131)
  6. Weekes: 41.98 per cent (34/81)

Hundreds per innings (a measure of consistency and ruthlessness)
Those who have scored a ton more than once in every six Test innings

  1. Bradman: 36.25 per cent (29/80)
  2. Smith: 20.97 per cent (26/124)
  3. Sir Clyde Walcott: 20.27 per cent (15/74)
  4. Sutcliffe: 19.05 per cent (16/84)
  5. Virat Kohli: 18.57 per cent (26/140)
  6. Weekes: 18.52 per cent (15/81)

If we move from whole-of-career statistics to measures which look more at peak and sustained performances, a similar pattern emerges. The howstat.com website contains many useful records, and one of my favourites is the highest average after X innings. Bradman obviously dominates up to 80 innings, but from 81 innings to Smith’s current 124 innings the record is frequently swapped between Hobbs, Sutcliffe, Sir Len Hutton, Barrington, Hammond, Sobers and Smith, with the record generally in the low 60s. However, after the recent Ashes series, Smith has again opened up a lead over the next highest, Hammond, after 124 innings.

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The ICC player rankings themselves give a good historical indication of peak performance (with a weighting to current form).

The highest ever ratings under this system

  1. Bradman: 961
  2. Smith: 947
  3. Hutton: 945
  4. Hobbs: 942
  5. Ponting: 942
  6. Peter May: 941

One further measure of sustained performance I like to look at is the ‘Bradman career’ – that is, the best block of 52 consecutive Tests during a player’s career. This is a measure which shows sustained achievement for a large portion of a career. Under that analysis the only players to have scored over 5500 Test runs or to maintain an average of over 70 for a block of 52 Tests are:

  1. Bradman: 6996 runs at 99.94
  2. Smith: 6003 at 75.04
  3. Ponting: 5857 at 74.14
  4. Sangakkara: 5699 at 64.76
  5. Lara: 5576 at 61.27
  6. Sobers: 5464 at 72.91

If we look at outstanding series and match performances, Smith’s name is still prominent.

Statistician Ric Finlay, whose database I have used for many of the analyses in this article, came up with the concept of the ‘bat trick’, where a batsman makes the two highest scores in a Test match. This is a surprisingly rare event, having occurred only 46 times in 2366 Tests. Smith is one of only five batsmen to do it twice – along with Mike Atherton, Inzamam-ul-Haq, Ponting and Frank Woolley – and is unique in doing it twice in a series.

(PA Images via Getty Images)

Series aggregates of 650-plus runs

  1. Bradman: six times
  2. Neil Harvey, Sobers, Lara, Smith: three times

Smith’s total is despite only having played in four five-Test series.

Series aggregates of 750-plus runs

  1. Bradman: four times
  2. Lara, Smith: two times

Both of Smith’s were in series in which he played only four Tests, while one of Lara’s was a six-Test series.

Where Smith doesn’t rate as highly is the relative absence of really big innings. He has three (smallish) double centuries compared to, say, Kohli’s seven and has never really threatened to score 300. His conversion rate of 50s to 100s (26/27) is slightly less than 50 per cent and well behind Bradman (29/13) and Kohli (26/22), who are the only two players to have at least two more tons than 50s.

Speed of scoring is also not a relative strength of Smith’s. His career strike rate of 56, while good, is only two runs per 100 balls higher than what the Australian team as a whole has achieved during his career.

Finally of course there is the issue of longevity. While Smith has played Test cricket for nearly ten years (which is as long as Mark Taylor, Bill Lawry and Weekes, for instance, and longer than Michael Slater, Adam Gilchrist and Mike Hussey) he is clearly still in his peak and hasn’t suffered the late-career drop-off that affected most of the greats.

To put that into some perspective, Sangakkara averaged over 59 when he had scored about 12,000 Test runs. For Smith to match that he would need to average in the low 50s for his next 5000 Test runs (which would probably take him into well into his mid-30s to achieve). Scoring 5000 runs at a low 50s average is pretty much Andy Flower’s entire outstanding Test career.

So does Smith have a claim to BAB?

If Smith were 35 and about to enter his final summer with the record he has, I’d say that there would be little doubt he’d be considered the BAB. His career to date across a range of measures compares favourably with any of his rivals for the title, some of whom would be considered certain all-time world XI starters. However, the jury is still out.

With the way he plays, Smith is a likely candidate for the type of late-career drop-off which ultimately undersold the final records of great on-side ‘eye’ players like Ponting (who averaged over 60 at 9300 Test runs but only 51.85 when he retired) or Sir Viv Richards (who averaged 44 over his last 76 out of 121 Tests).

Therefore until we know how it all ends for Smith, I’m not sure we can officially anoint him the BAB yet.

The Crowd Says:

2019-11-23T14:52:06+00:00

Graeme Smith

Roar Rookie


I think it is difficult to compare players across different era’s because the levels of fitness and professionalism were totally different, as well as The technology, the conditions they played under, and the opposition they played against. I suspect Bradman’s would not have been as dominant in the modern era. But what is remarkable about Bradman was that he was averaging double what any other batsman of the era was averaging. After Bradman just averaging 5-10 runs more than the second best batsman is an amazing achievement.

2019-11-23T14:42:59+00:00

Graeme Smith

Roar Rookie


His average since 2014, when he stopped being a poor leg spinner, is about 75 or 76. Using the best 52 game streak seems a bit arbitrary, why not 50, 60 or 100. But it seems the fairest way to judge a batsman. Players picked early based on potential and those who played on too long (Ponting) don’t get penalized. And based on that there is a good case he is the second best batsman ever.

2019-11-23T08:22:08+00:00

Duncan Smith

Roar Guru


You make a fair point. Australian batsmen have always had the advantage of not having to play against Australia, who have always had one the strongest bowling attacks. It sounds silly when I say it like that, but it's a definite advantage if we're comparing stats.

AUTHOR

2019-11-22T22:14:58+00:00

JGK

Roar Guru


Thanks Mike. You do raise an interesting question as to whether not outs help or hurt an average. That might be for another article.

2019-11-21T23:21:29+00:00

Bobbo7

Guest


No. You don't average 99 and 95 across all 650-odd innings you play by luck. No one in Bradman's era put up anywhere near his numbers - if the bwoling was so easy other would have averaged 70 plus and the didn't. I agree Chappell was probably better than Smith

2019-11-21T22:49:17+00:00

Munro Mike

Roar Rookie


At age 30 1/2 with 68 tests and an avg of 64.56 is absolutely excellent. Viv Richards was that age around 1982. At that point his average had just dropped from 62 to 58 on the back of a tough 1-1 series vs Australia here in the summer of '81/82. After the 3rd test Viv didn't play another test until the 82/83 tour of India. A combination of factors came into play for someone like Viv. After the '76 England tour he was going at 64 from 21 tests. Then a tough tour to Pakistan, 5 tests, avg 28.5, across 76/77. From that point on due to the WSC circus, in his peak years age 25-28 he played 2 tests in '78 and until the summer of 79/80 he returned from WSC and was a force - next 4 series for 16 tests with 1469 at over 77. His average back up to 62. What might have been...... And that was on somewhat less manicured pitches/grounds with no ropes etc. Viv even managed to somewhat master Pakistan. Smith however has an astonishing number of series with average over 100. He is astounding to watch - a somewhat unique style. An avg of 77 in Australia has benefited from conditions that had elevated the career stats of the likes of Uzzie and Voges - but - it's gotta be done. An avg of 60 'away' though validates his numbers. Sir Viv only had the one series with an avg over 100 ('76 v England). A guy like Dilip Vengsarkar had a magical phase from 85/86 (in Aust) to 87/88 where he averaged 97.27 over 19 tests in that time, 2 series with avg over 100. Batted 28 times but with 10 not outs, only 18 dismissals against his 1751 runs. Not outs certainly help. Sir Viv had only 12 across his 182 innings. Smith has 16 not outs from 124 innings. That helps. Even Vengsarkar had 22 no's from 185 hits but avg'd 42.13. So - twice as many series avg over 100 compared to Sir Viv doesn't mean so much. Steve Smith has 7!! Bradman only played 11 test series. He averaged over 100 in 4 of 11, another 3 series over 90 and the other 4 between 56 (bodyline series) and in the 70s. Smith - in 13/14 v RSA was his first series avg over 50 (67.25). Since then 2 series in the 20s, 4 in the 40s, a 56, a 71 and the 7 in the 100s. That's the astounding thing - in that time, 2013/14 to now and EVEN with the missed 12 months due to suspension - Smith has played 16 series, 51 tests, avg 75. At some point his 'eye' will desert him and his numbers will diminish. However - he's certainly more able to make hay while the sun shines than some others before him.

2019-11-21T15:40:26+00:00

Raimond

Roar Guru


Nice article, but what you can't measure with statistics is the mental pressure that Smith is under with an unreliable supporting cast. His Ashes performance was Atlas-like.

2019-11-21T13:39:34+00:00

Nick

Roar Guru


Not having a go at you per se... But it's staggering how often people will rip apart an overseas player record using a particular method, and then deliberately NOT apply the same method to Australian players. It's xenophobic- admittedly low range. People can't accept overseas batsman might be better than Australian ones... So, using YOUR yardstick, players like Bradman and Waugh have decidedly lower averages. Take Haydens zimbabwe 380 out of his record, and his average sits below 50! But no one seems to want to do that... The passage of time has turned that innings from bullying a poor team to scoring a triple century on a raging turner- green seamer against an all star bowling line up. These are the same people who then seek to delegitimise Lara's 400. So what if Sanga averaged 96 against Bangladesh? The other batsman didn't. And are you prepared to accept Australian batsman should be measured the same unfair way you looked at Sanga?

2019-11-20T22:46:41+00:00

Rissole

Roar Rookie


That is really sad. Careful on your dismount Spruce.

2019-11-20T20:14:52+00:00

Rob Peters

Guest


I understand where Don is coming from. I have actually struggled with havinggeneralized batting averages with players from different eras. Bradman (and anyone from the pre and post war era) had smaller bats, lesser opposition, uncovered pitches, larger grounds, no helmets or modern protection, no modern technological advances in the game (including newer shots), with nothing but state and tour games which lasted 3/4 days, with no 60/55/50/t20 games to speed things up. Would a batsman then have a better average now if they played today? Would Sutcliffe remain at 60? Would Sobers just average 57? Does it even even out? Should we even compare Bradman to Smith? Or even either one to Chappell? Both Bradman and Smith fall roughly 30 years before and after Chappell's career. Neither Smith nor Chappell had to play with the equipment Bradman did on the surfaces he did, just as Bradman never had to face four Larwoods on a single team or play a full season of tests/odis/t20s to the point of exhaustion. To paraphrase John Goodman on Roseanne "The game's the same, but its not really the same". Technically any player who is great in an earlier era should be great in a future one, but does it work backwards? Would a great player from this era still be great in a previous one? That is my dilemma in generalized averages.

2019-11-20T12:13:37+00:00

matth

Roar Guru


Interesting that the best three statistical openers are English when the modern consensus is that it’s a very tough place to be an opener. I am surprised Gavaskar does not feature.

AUTHOR

2019-11-20T11:44:22+00:00

JGK

Roar Guru


Hutton's name also appears and my starting assumption was that Hobbs was the joint BAB with Sobers!

AUTHOR

2019-11-20T11:42:40+00:00

JGK

Roar Guru


He was the best player of spin in my lifetime. I think in that series he scored about 43% of the total West Indies runs.

AUTHOR

2019-11-20T11:31:00+00:00

JGK

Roar Guru


I don't entirely agree with your team (for instance there is a case for Davidson and if you play Warne and Tiger, do you then play a Healy or Tallon as keeper) but your point about who plays 4, 5 and 6 is a good one. I think Smith has to be in there somewhere, probably at 6.

AUTHOR

2019-11-20T11:25:49+00:00

JGK

Roar Guru


I have a great admiration for Barrington - I love a guy who doesn't give their wicket away easily. But he was not better than Ponting (or Lara or Tendulkar).

2019-11-20T11:23:11+00:00

matth

Roar Guru


And final comment. There are basically no opening batsmen in your lists, apart from Hobbs and Sutcliffe. This seems unfair considering they take on the toughest of conditions. Gavaskar has claims to be the BAB in my opinion. Hayden, Morris, Boycott, Gooch, Shewag all underrated in these discussions. Maybe there should be a separate BAH or BAS category.

AUTHOR

2019-11-20T11:22:53+00:00

JGK

Roar Guru


Hi Dasilva In the article above there is a link to Ric Finlay’s website. He has a cricket statistics database that you can subscribe to which allows you do to a range of analyses. The website is http://www.tastats.com.au/ . Good luck. For what it’s worth, if I extend the analysis to the best consecutive 100 tests (min 8000 runs) the only players over 60 are: Kallis 65.09 Ponting. 62.93 Tendulkar 61.64 Sanga 61.52 Sanga is the only player to have scored over 10000 runs in a 100 test block.

2019-11-20T11:19:36+00:00

matth

Roar Guru


Putting Don’s controversial views aside for a minute, it does lead to one interesting point. The Best Australian XI has been pretty well agreed upon for a while but now Smith will force harsh choices to be made. Mostly you saw a team something like: Hayden Morris Bradman Ponting G Chappell Border (or Miller if you wanted the all rounder) Gilchrist Warne Lillee Lindwall (or O’Reilly if you played Miller) McGrath Apart from maybe Steve Waugh or Clarrie Grimmet advocates it’s reasonably stable. So where does Smith fit in? Ponting, Chappell or AB? And if you pick Smith AND Miller, then two of those great three miss out. It’s got a lot tougher.

2019-11-20T11:13:13+00:00

matth

Roar Guru


Nice article JGK, as always. Barrington was better than you give him credit for. He was the Steve Waugh of his generation. A very talented youngster, burned by some early setbacks, who determined to take all risk out of his game. Smith is the current BAB, but we will know more at the end. And there will always be another. For every Black Caviar, there is always a Winx in the wings waiting to be anointed as BSP. Best Since Phar Lap.

2019-11-20T11:11:06+00:00

Pope Paul VII

Roar Rookie


Lara's effort vs SL, was in SL. WI lost 3 nil by massive margins. Murali took a 10 and an 11. Vaas took a 14! That was one of the all time great series efforts. Whichever way you dissect it, Lara was a freak.

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