This is Part 3 in a five-part series that looks at graphical representation and assessment of AFL club list age profiles and features a novel graph coined an ‘Earlgram’ explained in Part 1.
Part 1 introduced AGP-Earlgrams, which are AFL club 2020 list age histograms with a colour superposition based on percentage of 2019 AFL games played. Here AGP-Earlgrams are presented for premiership sides of the past 12 years. These AGP-Earlgrams are slightly different as they use the list age profile and games played from the same year.
It should be noted that Western Bulldogs (2016), Richmond (2019) and Hawthorn (2014) had an inordinately low number of players play 75 per cent or more games over the course of their premiership seasons. This suggests these sides managed substantial injuries throughout their successful seasons and also that their AGP-Earlgrams are less useful in demonstrating the age profile of the senior players that ultimately facilitated success.
Significantly, the past 12 years encompasses a dynastic Hawthorn. Hawthorn’s 2008 premiership had a very young but well-developed core in the 23-25 age bracket, a strong younger tail but most remarkably only one senior player aged over 26. It is not surprising that this group formed the base for sustained success.
Age distribution of senior players in Hawthorn’s 2013-15 threepeat teams retained a diminished form of the 2008 core but overall had diverged into a series of peaks in their AGP-Earlgrams, which demonstrates their short-term successional turnover of personnel during this successful era.
The last 12 years also encompasses the latter part of a dynastic Geelong. Their 2011 and 2009 premiership years had an age distribution of senior players characterised by a series of peaks, suggesting, like Hawthorn, once they had an established core they were able to transition to a model of shorter-term successional player turnover.
Collingwood (2011) and Western Bulldogs (2016) both had a core group in the 20-23 age range, which is even younger than that of Hawthorn (2008). However, further success for either did not eventuate. Both lists had a more significant older head to their senior player distribution. It is not unreasonable to suggest the deterioration of these older players and a preference to persevere with the same group is what sets them apart from Hawthorn and Geelong.
Richmond is a team now on the cusp of a dynasty. Their 2017 AGP-Earlgram distribution of senior players is a mirror image of Collingwood (2011). While interpreting Richmond’s (2019) AGP-Earlgram is problematic, it does suggest there is a dynamism to Richmond’s current list management that has historical precedent for sustained success.
(Ryan Pierse/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
West Coast (2018) had a more archetypal AGP-Earlgram distribution of senior players with a core group in the 25-28 age bracket and well-developed older head and younger tail. They won a premiership when their list was theoretically at its prime.
Sydney (2012) is peculiar in that they exhibit a very flat AGP-Earlgram distribution of senior players, which has been suggested here as less conducive to success. A list like this is extremely difficult to maintain. If it works, the team will stay competitive indefinitely. However, it is something of a tightrope walk. A single poor recruiting year could jeopardise the strategy. It may well be that the strategy is only made possible by the cost of living allowance and lucrative youth academies.
Establishing a core group of similarly aged players appears to be an overarching mechanism to building a premiership side, and success, if it comes, will occur when this group is between the ages of 22 and 28. A core is at its prime in the 25-28 age bracket, and this is when teams should theoretically be in their true premiership window.
However, sustained success is not expected from such a team. Dynasties occur when early on a younger core experience success and later on the club reduces reliance on this single core of players and is dynamic in transitioning players in and out of the side.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I’ve never been one to say you won lucky. Who cares how you get the cup. 1990 pies were pedestrian at best but who cares. Matthews got that flag. Flags are flags and beating up on rubbish interstate opposition? Good luck to you !
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
But it was a Port 2007 loss. Once in a decade. Confidence crushing. At least I hope so as we are playing your boys in round one.
6x6 perkele
Roar Rookie
Nah that line appeared in the hun or the age, they won the cup so not worth you Jumpin all about like raggedy Andy ttf.
Eddie from Elwood
Roar Rookie
Hooks baited gentlemen? The context in which Richmond fans were told has more to do with the reaction PTS. 40 years going nowhere, bang you win a flag and then you “yeah you won, but your team is rubbish and you were just lucky”. I’m sure your view would be different. I was standing amongst many Pies supporters during the 2018 Prelim and for everything level at Richmond fans, the Pies fans were their equal, if not more.
Paul D
Roar Rookie
Escalating
Raimond
Roar Guru
Winning three consecutive finals interstate is a huge task in the modern era, the Crows doing it in 1998 was a miracle.
Earl Chi
Roar Rookie
I disagree with your opinion on COLA, but I don’t like any ‘equalisation’ measures in the AFL (aside from ladder position/draft pick) no matter the rationale. I’m a Hawks supporter and I don’t like that they were given priority picks in 2004-5.
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
And how wrong were the knockers of that 2017 team? By and large South Australians I think, particularly here at the Roar. Plenty of West Aussies for that matter, too.
6x6 perkele
Roar Rookie
Nah I wouldn't Pete, was said about Richmond in 2017 and know ppl are talking dynasty side.
RT
Roar Rookie
And how is the cost of living in Brisbane?
Timbo's rules
Guest
Like your articles. Just one small note, if you moved from Melbourne to Sydney for your job you would expect to get a higher salary to compensate for the higher cost of living. Only someone from Victoria looking to find yet another way to cheat their way to an advantage would think paying an extra 10% to the lower paid footballers is going to give a Sydney side any advantage. When the whole cola was in place it didn't provide an advantage, it eased a disadvantage. Now Sydney is crippled and GWS will be in a few years.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Matti would you really care though if anyone rated the Eagles 2018 the worst Premiership side in history? I couldn’t care less if we had won that flag because half your side were injured in the first quarter. Cups in the cabinet are all that counts and you’re getting them pretty regularly.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
That’s true and I never will watch it. I tipped the Tigers by 69 moments after we lost and that was clearly overestimating GWS. I don’t need to have seen him play to know one game against clearly overawed opposition does not make him the next big thing. Mark Mcgough comes to mind. One an Anzac medal early in his career then faded into obscurity
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Flathead.
6x6 perkele
Roar Rookie
Nice to have some data to back up what my lay opinions on premiership sides have been, cheers mate.
RT
Roar Rookie
At least those people have actually watched Pickett play. You sulked off after your prelim last year and didn’t watch the grand final.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Ha. How did I know you’d take the bait TTF. Pies made a prelim in 2012 under Bucks so the fall was only steady. When you’ve won 2 of the last 3 flags and are the overwhelming flag favourites again, get used to everyone looking for a chink in the armour. Some Tiger fans are claiming Pickett as the next big thing. He has played one game against witches hats. Let’s see how he goes .
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Yes. Collingwood did fall away. This trend coincided with the arrival of a despotic Nathan Buckley who insisted that everything be done 'My Way'. The Tiges have taken a very different path.
RT
Roar Rookie
The article says the senior players are a mirror image not the entire list. It would be interesting to see the Collingwood in 2012 against Richmond 2019. Or even Richmond second half of 2019 when a lot of the injuries were done with and more senior players were available. If the Earlgrams then were identical then I would have some concern. The positive as a Richmond supporter is the younger players in the first half of 2019 managed to keep the Tigers competitive, which is the big hope going forward. I don't remember Collingwood in 2012 (I barely remember Richmond in 2012), but I don't think the Earlgram would help for that. A couple of graphs does not prove anything, so it is just a good conversation starter.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
The Pies peaked in 2011 then steadily fell away. If the Tigers Earlgram is a mirror image would they be on the cusp of a dynasty or over the top of the hill moving down?