Many experienced pundits predicted a Raiders premiership in 2020. Many more had them top of the ladder somewhere come finals time.
But others had a sneaking suspicion going one better than last year might not come quite that easy.
Like every other team in the NRL, Canberra look different to last year.
Gone are Jordan Rapana and Joey Leilua. That loss isn’t to be sneezed at. But also gone is 2019 halfback Aidan Sezer.
Aidan Sezer (Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Coach Ricky Stuart is pinning his hopes on Sezer’s English-import replacement, George Williams. He brings 184 games of experience garnered over seven seasons for the Wigan Warriors.
But some believe English halfbacks don’t perform in the NRL and the fear is that Williams might not fire.
On the plus side, Williams is no rookie. Having won a couple of Super League titles and played 15 internationals, he’s obviously got some quality. And he’s playing inside the reigning Clive Churchill medallist and Origin rep Jak Wighton. There’s a guy that’s started the season in hot form.
So why are some, like me, unconvinced Canberra will fire in 2020?
I wanted some specificity to back up my instinct. I wondered what statistic could shed some quantitative light on English halves in Australia. Frankly, there wasn’t much to go on.
(I’d be interested in any statistical analysis, but rugby league isn’t Moneyball yet. If it exists, let me know.)
A generation ago, the NSWRL saw players like Ellery Hanley come across and do well, but Hanley did best in 1988 while playing at centre. In 1989, playing for the Magpies, he won the Golden Boot. But that award is heavily weighted to international prowess. Other halfbacks like Shaun Edwards and Andy Gregory also plied their trade here in the late ’80s.
The last English halfback to win grand final was Gary Stephens in 1976.
Of the more recent imports, forwards like Sam Burgess and James Graham have excelled but their backline compatriots, no so much.
Zak Hardaker, Sam Tomkins, Kallum Watkins and Joe Burgess failed to play their best football in the NRL, but there haven’t been recent English halfbacks to help understand the problem.
Sam Tomkins playing for Catalans Dragons (Photo by Tim Clayton/Corbis via Getty Images)
So I investigated how many seasons – on average and of any background – an NRL halfback or five-eighth had played before winning their respective Dally M awards.
A superficial review of Dally M positional awards, halfback and five-eighth, since 1980 suggests you need an average of seven seasons.
That number is blown out by the number of great halves winning multiple times – each time Terry Lamb won Dally M five-eighth of the year he was one year more experienced.
Scott Prince didn’t win halfback of the year until his 13th season. Cooper Cronk was still winning in his 14th.
That would support many fans’ instinct that halfbacks need time to dominate.
Dally M points are subjective, as winners tend to be relatively dominant in their own team, instead of sharing the points around the 17. But the exercise reminded me that only the best of their generation come into the NRL and excel in their first two seasons. Andrew Johns. Johnathan Thurston. Cooper Cronk. Greg Alexander.
Being a young playmaker is tough, man.
George Williams has runs on the board but playing in an NRL backline with new shapes, methods, speeds and game plans is arguably more of a challenge than playing in the middle.
Even with Wighton in the side, only his second season in the halves, Williams is being asked to contribute to that game plan. Every week. Organise those shapes. And guide the Raiders to another grand final.
As far as his prospects for success, he’s in the window for total seasons but fans may need to manage expectations in 2020. A halfback finding his feet rarely leads to premiership success.
One prediction, though. If George Williams proves successful this year and next, look for many more English halves in the NRL.
Developing Australian playmakers takes years. Why not import one?
Bunney
Roar Rookie
I think "Ben Hunt" is the answer to your headline...
King in the north
Roar Rookie
The Raiders have done their fair share of developing halves over the past two decades but haven’t reaped the rewards. So why not try George Williams - he looks the goods. And there were some handy English halfbacks before Tommy Bishop - my older brother said Alan Hardisty was one of the best he’d seen.
Ian_
Roar Rookie
I'm not sure how much it matters for the Raiders. I think for much of last season, Sezer was adequate at best, although he did play his best in the finals. I think if Williams is any better than adequate, the Raiders will be very happy.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Early days but I thought Williams looked good. His running game and defence in particular look top notch. I think the Raiders have found another good one.
Col in Paradise
Roar Rookie
You forgot the best English half back for a comparison....Tommy Bishop...a hard playing halfback in the early 70s for Cronulla...
matth
Roar Guru
Good insight, thanks
mushi
Roar Guru
"I’d be interested in any statistical analysis, but rugby league isn’t Moneyball yet. If it exists, let me know." If it does it's bespoke and private, individual stats at this point are based on convenience not effectiveness. There is scope for heat mapping and impact which would moneyball it. Given positional pay gaps I think the key would be transitioning positions
Albo
Roar Rookie
KenW, I think it depends on the sort of 9 & 1 type that you have. If you have a Cam Smith or Josh Hodgson you probably don't need a playmaking half. You can run with double running five eighths instead ( eg Munster & Hughes, and Wighton & Williams) as theses 9's provide a lot of the direction and playmaking. But then you have more running types of 9s like Cook & Api, I reckon you need a playmaking halfback to compliment your team here ( Reynolds & Cleary). Your fullbacks need a variety of skills from taking the high ball, hitting the ball up off their own line, identifying holes in the ruck and backing up dummy half runner, to cutout passing to an open winger. Some can do it all to a degree, others can't. Not sure too many fullbacks can play the playmaker role, maybe Turbo to a degree , or Moylan if he gets on the park, but most are hole and back up running types.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Regarding George Williams and the Raiders chances in 2020, my view has probably changed in the space of one match. I queried whether Williams would provide the halfback role needed as I think he is more a running 6 in the vain of his Raiders partner Jack Wighton. But then the Raiders are a bit different to most other team set ups, where Josh Hodgson plays a more dominating role of playmaker and directional manager. This allows both Williams & Wighton more scope to play their natural strong running games. This is a similar situation at the Storm where Smith plays a lot of the "halfback" role allowing Munster and Hughes to play similar running game roles. In terms of DallyM awards indicating any likelihood of premiership success, I would treat this with a grain of salt. The judges allocating 3,2,1 points are all making very subjective decisions depending on the individual focus of each judge. Take last weeks Storm v Manly points - Cam Smith gets 3 points , nothing unusual there. Tui Kamikamica plays half a game but 18 hit ups , so he gets 2 points. Jerome Hughes at half sets up two tries in 5 minutes to snatch the match and 30 tackles , for one Dally M point. Whilst the judge out at Penrith couldn't even find a point for Nathan Cleary for his role in guiding the Panthers to an upset of the premiers ? As for the idea of importing your halfbacks for the NRL, I wouldn't be recommending it. I think the Raiders probably grabbed the only viable one out of the Super League. Perhaps a young Jake Trueman from the Castleford Tigers might develop into something later on, but most of the others would struggle at NRL level including a bunch of Aussies already moved on there. Best to develop home grown talent where we have plentiful resources , if only the Clubs can identify the right ones.
KenW
Roar Rookie
In my lifetime halfback has always been considered the most important position on the field, with 5/8th coming in 2nd. It was just common sense that to win consistently you need halves that can match it with any in the comp. In the last decade or so this has morphed a little to 'The Spine', acknowledging that the 9 & 1 are almost equal in importance. I would suggest though that these 2 positions have probably usurped the halves in influence on a team performance. Defences are faster and better drilled than ever (usually drive by the hooker) which reduces the space that playmakers have. On the other side of the ball, good service and room to move is usually given by the hooker. The fullback role has also become integral as an additional playmaker - often the one with the most space to take advantage of a situation. The halves can often be reduced to link men - if the hooker has given them good ball, they do their best to get it out wide, often to the fullback. And of course a good fullback has to have all the usual dimensions to their game in defence, positioning & returning. Otherwise the team is always on the back foot. Of course halves are still very important for directing the team around. But my gut feel is that an elite number 9 & 1 can make lesser halves look better - I don't think the reverse is true. If I were putting a team together I reckon hooker & fullback would be the spots I'd want to fill first.
Nat
Roar Guru
I think a lot depends on team balance and what you want from your #7. It is a ver important position but it's just as important that everyone else do their jobs for the half to be effective. You can pay overs for a teir 1 half but if the forwards cannot lay a platform, the half will be pressured for individual brillance aka trying too hard. Conversely, some halves may rely on brillance but cannot really steer a team around. I think Williams has the opportunity to shine at Canberra. He has a quality team around him that made the GF last year with Sezer. All he has to be is servicable but I think he'll be more than that. Like you I doubt their ability to back up to that standard again but Williams, at his value, will help their cause for sure.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
I had a quick look at a few players and not as many as I thought won a title in the 1st or 2nd year but there were some and others like Benji Marshal only played a few games in their 1st couple of years anyway. Sterling is similar. DCE was in his 1st year. It's certain you don't need to wait 7 years or be concerned about how they go in the Dally M's.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
I wouldn't take the Dally M's into account when defining a players season myself. I was only Jamie Lyon and Matt Orford who won any Dally M's from Manly's back line when we were clearly one of the top two teams for 6 years. Our strength was the back line and I wouldn't swap Brett Stewart , Foran or DCE for anyone during that spell. The Dally M's don't calculate the players impact when it matters and that is the finals series. I'm not sure of the numbers but how many halves each season are in their 1st or 2nd season anyway? You would have to adjust the results to take that in to account. Most of the top halves are on only in the first two seasons for 20% of their career at most. It would be interesting to break it down and see the success rate for halves in all the different stages of their careers, I would bet that year one and two would stack up pretty well in comparison.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Interesting article but I don’t think the comparison of George Williams to a rookie player is valid, because he’s not The comparison that seems most apt is when a half changes clubs, how long does it take to be “successful”. I suspect it’s a “how long is a piece of string” argument Cronk won back to back premierships after moving to the Roosters. Thurston got the Cowboys to a GF in year one but had to wait ten years for a premiership despite winning all sorts of individual and rep honours along the way I don’t think it’s as simple as get a good half, win a comp, which is sort of the pressure Williams is under. No ones saying it but he’s the big change to a team that was runner up. If they’re expecting to go one better, Williams needs to be a big part of the reason why The lack of quality rugby league stats definitely makes this sort of thing difficult
HarlanKemp
Roar Rookie
The part that interests me is defining what one means by excel. If you mean win the Dally M Halfback of the year or take your side to a premiership, the list of players doing that in their first couple of seasons is pretty small. Trying to fit a quantitative peg into a qualitative hole will only get you so far. I just thought it would be interesting.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
It seems harder these days for halves to fulfill their potential in the NRL yet history shows plenty of halves and five eights have excelled in their first couple of seasons. The list is long and includes DCE , Magic Johnson , Munster, Adam Reynolds, Prince , Marshall , Toovey, Sterling, Stuart, Daley, Toovey, Hasler,Morgan, Lamb and Cleary. Add Thurston, Cronk and Lockyer and it's not about taking time to develop players slowly but selecting the right one in the first place , which is not that easy. I'd go the other way in some regards and suggest just about all the great halves and five eights were capable of winning a title in their first year or two if they were in the right team. No need to wait seven years.