Overreaction following significant defeat or victory are common in sport, especially when your own team is involved.
Sunday’s hammering by the West Coast Eagles of Collingwood could be seen as just an outlier during a season like no other, or perhaps a truer reflection of where the club may actually be.
Following the 2010 premiership, with the likes of Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Ben Reid, Dale Thomas and Travis Cloke all in their early to mid twenties, most ‘Pies supporters would have laughed uncontrollably if you had said 2010 would be their only premiership as players.
Nine years into Nathan Buckley’s tenure as coach, that scenario is more likely than not for Pendlebury and Sidebottom. Sunday’s loss was hardly a one-off.
Poor performances against Hawthorn, North Melbourne and GWS last season culminated in a dreadful showing for three quarters in the Preliminary final against a woefully undermanned GWS outfit, diminishing thoughts that 2018 was the opening of a new premiership window.
Last season the team rarely clicked for an entire game, seemingly blowing sides out of the water with one frenzied quarter before struggling to hang on thereafter. In the almost grand final-winning season of 2018, the team kicked 75 points or more on 18 occasions.
In 2019, it was ten times, and in this incomplete season with shorter quarters, it has only been done twice. The more worrying aspect is that in six games this season, the ‘Pies have scored two goals or less in an hour of football during a game.
This season is obviously different to anything before, yet the same issues remain. The midfield, lauded by some last season as the best in the game, is slow, lacks physicality, skill and a complete inability to take advantage of Brodie Grundy’s ruck dominance.
Given that Pendlebury is past 30 and Sidebottom will be next season, it’s difficult to see them competing against the deeper, more skilled and quicker midfields of West Coast, Essendon, the Bulldogs and Brisbane in the next couple of seasons.
The forward line, a unique combination of tall and small in 2018, is a shadow of its former self. 2018 was driven by out of the box seasons from debutants like Brodie Mihocek and Jaidyn Stephenson, as well as never before seen – or since – seasons from Will Hoskin-Elliott, Josh Thomas and Jordan DeGoey.
Mihocek has been a revelation, a hard-working warhorse with an enormous heart, but he isn’t a key forward.
The defence, obviously, moulded by Justin Longmuir and continuing under his successor in Matthew Boyd, is one of the best in the game, and yet, as shown by the Eagles, can’t hold back the tide when the game plan is unpicked by opposition coaches and the ball floods in.
(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
This is Nathan Buckley’s ninth year in charge of Collingwood.
The only premiership coaches of the last 70 years who have taken that long to win a premiership are Michael Malthouse and Malcolm Blight. No coach has won a premiership if they haven’t succeeded by the ninth year.
History therefore suggests that if Buckley does not coach the club to a grand final win this year, he won’t.
History is made to be rewritten, of course, yet the Collingwood list in a transitory phase. Quality talent such as Pendelbury, Jeremy Howe and Sidebottom are much closer to the end of their careers than the middle.
Adam Treloar, Grundy, Taylor Adams, Moore, DeGoey and Mihocek are somewhere in the middle, and there is the younger talent such as Isaac Quaynor, Josh Daicos, the Brown brothers, Nathan Murphy and Will Kelly that will hopefully form part of the next period of success.
Given that this list is Buckley’s, and the aforementioned unlikelihood of coaching a premiership in the tenth year in charge, the club need to make the bold choice and dispense with a favourite son, in order to plan for the future and ensure a fresh start instead of hanging on and hoping the dream of a Premiership that never materialised as a player happens as coach.
Talent is spread too thinly around the competition, both in playing and coaching ranks, and it would be a travesty were the club to waste talent such as DeGoey, Stephenson and Moore in the same manner as it did with its 2010 players.
There are still a few months left before the 2020 grand final is played, but Collingwood will likely only regain Pendlebury and Sidebottom for he remainder of the season, and two players don’t make an 11-goal difference.
MickySea
Guest
Would be interested in an update to this article now that the season is over, for Collingwood at least. Do the Pies bite the bullet or stick with Buckley? We all know they'll stick with Bucks, but Pendles is hitting his last good year or two and who else will step up?
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Back a few years now. Looking at the players, Beams and Shaw are the only ones that really hurt. Jolly and Daws where shot in the 2011 GF. Do you think the Bucks was arrogant and lacked player empathy? Do you think he has changed? In any case, you don’t sack a coach who has been top four for two going on three years for a single loss to WC at home in a hub.
Big Bear
Roar Rookie
The best coaches in the business are Clarkson, Hardwick and Buckley. Simpson? Brendan Bolton could nail a flag with the Eagles list.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Yattz. I refuted that notion garnished by some that “Buckley dismantled a premiership team” in my November 2017 article below. This article I wrote at the time was in opposition to every other article including those by Roar experts at the time who announced Bucks was about to be sacked. I suggested a 2 year contract was coming, refuted each and every misinformed comment such as yours here and announced where the improvement was coming from. I’d love you to read it and reevaluate your thoughts. You are level headed and may well stick to your claim but at least have a look at me debunking that theory. Most who view the Pies as opposition fans make their judgements from cl1ck b@it bylines. Take Dr Disnick as an exception. He knows his Pies stuff as a Cats fan. https://www.theroar.com.au/2017/12/01/debunking-myths-around-nathan-buckley-pies-actually-headed/
George Apps
Roar Rookie
They damn well did! Collingwood were winning under Malthouse and were the best team in 2011, but failed in the last quarter of the GF against a superb Cats team! Mick should have been given another 2 or 3 years more as coach, but Eddie stuffed up because he feared that Buckley would be tempted to coach elsewhere.
Kane
Roar Rookie
Not following you around, just calling out your hypocritical ways as usual ie. your name calling whinge but don't like it when you get called out.
Kane
Roar Rookie
Sorry I will refrain that "champ", final 2 years were 2 grand finals. How can you call someone "spent" when his final 2 years at a club were grand finals and then Nathan took over and they went missing for 7 years. Believe it or not i do know that he coached Carlton and I also know that he didn't have anywhere near the talent on the list that he left Nathan.
DTM
Guest
So Flagpies, your interpretation is that the "system" Collingwood play under either can't be or hasn't been, maintained for whole games. Therefore there is 2 possibilities - 1 - It can't be maintained for a whole game, therefore the system is flawed. So who is the architect of this "flawed" system? Answer: Buckley. 2 - It hasn't been maintained for a whole game, therefore some of the players are at fault. The coach needs to identify which players are not adhering to the system for the whole game and either retrain them or get rid of them. Responsibility: Buckley.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Selective stats I see. Did you not know he coached the Pies for 12 years? This is why you shouldn’t comment on the Pies. You have no idea. He made 7 GFs in 28 years as coach of 4 clubs and actually made 4 GFs at the Pies plus the draw in 12 seasons. Get informed champ! Do you even know he coached your side or have you blocked those dismal years from your memory? Ed was right. He was spent and you sacked a great coach to get him to the Blues.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Still following me around Kane even when I suggest you don’t? You can’t stop can you? Fancy having a Carlton groupie. Doesn’t seem right but go for your life.
Kane
Roar Rookie
A bit like your alter ego George who only appears when you need back up. There doesn’t need to be a poll to know this, it’s as obvious as Malthouse would have got at least another flag out of the Collingwood list if he stayed on.
Kane
Roar Rookie
Why wouldn't I? It's pretty obvious Mick had them playing for him. 2 grand finals in 2 years says a lot.
Flagpies
Roar Rookie
I don't think the club thinks that a PF or GF loss is an achievement, sure some of the fans do. In saying that, I don't think Bucks is the issue, in fact if you look post 17 with near zero list change I'd argue he and the panel have punched above their weight. They've absolutely squeezed everything out of what they've got. Fact is, if you analyze it deeper we don't have the cattle of the contending teams and we rely on system. That system almost pinched a flag. I'd argue we have been and still are just making up the numbers. Pretenders in reality.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Like Kane would have any clue. Hilarious.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Was there a poll Kane? Or are you judge, jury and executioner? Regardless, I do not care, secondly, simple tip, don’t read my comments. I do that with certain realistic Richmond fans and the name changing Hungry Jack-True Tiger Fan-Pablo? Works a treat.
DTM
Guest
I haven't seen any talk of Grundy's "demise". However, I did say he looked injured last week - perhaps he was just sore. Grundy is only 26 and has another 6 or so good years left in him. Whether he plays that long will be up to him.
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Yep. Same pork chop. Shown his true colours over the past month.
Katie
Guest
This is crazy this article! They are a premiership favourite for goodness sake!
Mark
Roar Rookie
Once again, I'll reiterate, Malthouse didn't happily "agree" to the deal. Eddie unfairly foisted this deal upon Mick giving him no choice but to accept therefore creating the unrest that followed. And Bucks, not wanting a Team that had Mick's fingerprints on it, dismantled a Premiership winning combination to satisfy his own foolish pride. All of this to the detriment of a famous Club and sanctioned by Eddie.
andyfnq
Roar Rookie
Not sure where I stand on this one... Bucks did start with a premiership winning team, but as always, there are cubs moving up fast behind you, and it is arguable that much like Bulldogs of 2016 or Richmond of 2017, they were not the best team of the year, but the best in the final series. Starting with a good list, he has made sure that the team on the field won more games than they lost and were generally a chance come September. Finals games can be unpredictable and in 2018 WCE spent a lot of the year without at least 1 of two dominant forwards; when they were both available at the end of the season their output increased drastically. Still, the club and its supporters would have expected at least 1 more taste of success in that time. However Pendlebury is not yet spent, Sidebottom has a few years left, and there is still potential in the forward line. Maybe another year or so to see if they really do start to bottom out, and then questions can be asked as to whether Buckley has the will and support for a rebuild of the list. The most worrying thing is the demolition of the midfield without Pendles and Sidebottom - bit of a glimpse of the future there. While those two are still around and disposing of the ball well, the engine room has a chance.