Round 12 finished with what was one of the best indigenous rounds I have seen in my time following the sport.
Some great jerseys, some not so great and great tributes to the owners of the land.
With that being said, if the round past did anything, it may have shown us who are genuine contenders and who really are there for numbers.
The top eight currently stands like this:
Penrith, Melbourne, Parramatta, Eastern Suburbs, Canberra, Cronulla, Newcastle and South Sydney.
The only other teams I can see pushing for the eight are Manly, St George and Wests. These three teams are a legit chance of forcing their way in and the rest are dead heats for the bottom portion of the ladder.
That is 11 teams worthy of making the finals. As sad as it is to say, out of those 11 teams realistically only five of them can win this year’s premiership.
One through five are all genuine premiership contenders, with one very lucky to make my list, the team in green down south of the border. Canberra have lost their general and captain in Josh Hodgson for the year and although they are grinding out small wins, I don’t think realistically their chances are as high as the other four, but are high enough to be a worry for other sides.
From top to bottom, the Panthers have been out-and-out the best side of season 2020. Only one loss on the trot and they are firing.
Someone made an interesting point that they haven’t faced much adversity and questioned how would they respond to a low point. Once these Panthers are tested, how they respond will really show if they’re legit or not.
For the time being, they’re first for a reason. We cannot fault that.
The ever-present Melbourne Storm are back up near the top, as per usual. They seem to be like clockwork and just seem to find players who are gems from nothing. They’re my pick to win it all this season, and send out Cameron Smith as a winner (yes, I think he will retire).
Parramatta are the oddest out of the five. They have a plethora of talent across the board and their record shows it. Their biggest downfall, however, is they haven’t slain teams when they really should’ve.
The Bulldogs did everything but win, in which the Eels just let them come back into the game. It wasn’t what you want to see from a team priming for a premiership. Out of the five, they are my pick to choke in the big games. Watch this space.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
The back-to-back champions, pushing for a three-peat, look wounded and sorry. Injuries aplenty, they still find ways to win. The ultimate professional side.
They just keep producing, regardless of who is on the field. Given the injuries are occurring now, however, they could be primed when the finals come around.
Given the expected addition of SBW, I believe the Chooks will make the prelims and will eventually bow out due to tiredness and the longevity of their run. The last team to three-peat in a major sport were the Kobe Bryant-Shaq O’Neal-led Lakers in the NBA, who then crumbled right after it.
Three-peating is hard business and if any team were to do it it could be these Chooks, but I see a quicker ending this season.
Last but not least, as above, the Canberra Raiders. They seem to be there and scraping wins from the dirt, but two points are two points. By any means necessary, a win is a win. I believe they will make the prelims but will lose out on back-to-back grand finals.
If you read my words correctly, I have Parra not making the prelims and the final four coming down to Penrith, Melbourne, Easts and Canberra. I believe it will be a Penrith/Melbourne grand final, in which I have made my pick already.
For a competition of 16 teams, to only have five ‘real’ contenders, could it be a worry the talent is not spread out as much as possible?
Who knows? I am just ready for the rest of this season to rip in.
Chris.P.Bacon
Guest
"Three-peating is hard business..." ..........absolutely Willie. I noticed that Vytautas Kirkliauskas and his wife Neringa will be unable to three-peat in the "World Wife-Carrying Championship" this year after taking out the title in both 2018 and 2019. They're absolute superstars in the sport and may well do it in 2021 though - here's hoping! :thumbup: In league it’s almost as difficult to three-peat and, like yourself, I’ve got a feeling the Panthers will be playing in the big one – and it won’t be against the Chooks – no three-peat for you! ;)
Loïc A.
Guest
Erps, for football you can go to more reknowned leagues: Juventus won their what, ninth Scudetto?
csps
Roar Rookie
Agree the Roosters will bow out before the grand final, unless numbers 7 and 9 can significantly lift their game. Genuinely hoping for Penrith and Cronulla..
Albo
Roar Rookie
So you don't count the two losses to Penrith & Manly to start the season ? They have lost 4 matches, and have quite a few injuries ( even amongst those still playing) , they are already 5 points behind the Panthers and 4 points behind the Storm & Eels, and in their final 8 rounds they play 6 matches against teams currently inside the 8 ? They are sorely missing Radley, Cordner, Crichton & Tupou. Teddy has been out of sorts for a couple of weeks. I don't wear that they are " taking it easy " in these middle stages. They are struggling and have needed some good fortune to just beat the Warriors & Titans in the past fortnight. I would never write them off if they can get a bunch of these injured players back, but in the meantime , I think they might battle to stay in the top 4, making it difficult come finals time.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
It’s based on the differences of the 2020 playing personnel of the Roosters and the 2019/ ‘18 repeaters ...yeah, they may have had soft patches previously when they had the players, don’t have that luxury this year..injuries aren’t a valid excuse we’ve all got them..let’s see in 6 weeks.
Andrew01
Roar Rookie
"Their biggest downfall, however, is they (Eels) haven’t slain teams when they really should’ve.." Quick recap of Penrith's season: They have "slained" three teams: The Warriors (26-0), Manly (42-12) and the Sharks (56-24 - the 24 points against is not impressive). They needed points in the final 10 minutes to beat Saints, Storm, Souths, Tigers and Cowboys, were unimpressive against the Titans and had a draw against a Newcastle team that lost it's half and hooker in the first 10 minutes. That's 3 dominant performances. The Eels have 3 dominant performances (beltings of the Titans, Broncos and the Cowboys) and a mix of impressive wins and wins they had to fight for (including over Penrith). I don't see the difference other than the popular narrative being pushed in the main stream media. They are having a good season so far but have the 4th best defence in the comp and their attack is either red hot or ice cold. So I am not sure why Penrith are the lock you say they are. Just my opinion, probably not the popular opinion...
Pete
Guest
Strongly disagree with both of you. They've been missing anywhere from 5-6 starters since their game against the Dragons and only just went down to Melbourne and the Raiders and have beaten everyone else. It hasn't been pretty but when you take into account their injury toll and the fact that they always seem to take it a bit easier through the middle stages I don't think there's much cause for concern. I'm not saying they are a shoe in for the 3-peat but I think it's ridiculous to suggest they might not be able to compete with the top sides based off the last few weeks.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
Actually... by that time Bronco's could have their main pack back in sync, Turps on song and some strong backs (Staggs and Farnworth very hard runners & Coates), halves improved. I think Broncos will cause a lot of problems in the last few games. And cracks showing in the chooks.. sacking Flanagan.. not a promising reaction. Fresh after losing a couple, Roosters could be quivering a bit.. :thumbup:
Willie La'ulu
Roar Guru
I am an Auckland Blues supporter, please do not mention the Crsuaders :laughing: :crying: Good point! Great point!
Willie La'ulu
Roar Guru
As harsh as this sounds to others, I strongly agree to this. The 2018-2019 Storm sides would have beaten ANY other side I believe in the competition on the big day, they just happened to play a team with their assistant coach from the past 15 years or so in Cronk. They were never getting past them, with him on board. Now he is out of the way, and no Latrell, I think they are hell bent on a premiership - and I think your takes on the Chooks at the moment are fairly spot on!
matth
Roar Guru
Yep, they'd be really worried about that Broncos game coming up....
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Don’t see how the Roosters sit above all others, this is a far weaker side than that which scraped home in last years decider. Since around 9 they’ve really only played 40 mins of good football, lost to the only true contenders they’ve faced and struggled to get by the bottom feeders. There’s no starch in the pack without Victor, no speed or variation at the ruck without Verrills, no on field strategists without Cooper and the outside backs are pedestrian and danger free without Latrell. 4 weeks of treading water, a long way off the pace and a coach searching for a light in the longest of tunnels.
Tim Reynolds
Guest
"The last team to three-peat in a major sport" implies that rugby league is a major sport. If that's the case then rugby union certainly is. So if you are looking for consistency in winning championships you can't go past the Crusaders in Super Rugby. They're currently on a string of three and look good for four, while their record over the last 10 years would be hard to match anywhere. And I hear that the Ulanbataar Metros have won the Mongolian soccer league 12 times in a row!
Rellum
Roar Guru
The Roosters and Storm still sit above all others, although things are not all super rosy with Flanagan being dropped. Robinson is clearly not happy so that should put to bed the notion that they are tapering for the finals. Panthers and Eels sit just below them now, Canberra maybe as well. Good performances so far but the pressure of September is the unknown with these teams. Then out of the rest you can eliminate the four worst teams in the comp, the Dogs, Cows, Titans and the embarrassing Broncos. The rest of the teams are battling it out to make up the numbers come finals time. Manly, Newcastle, Souths and the Sharks battling to take those last three finals spots. I am guessing the Sharks will miss out but I would not be surprised to see the Bunny's drop out.
Rob
Guest
This is something the Roosters do every year though. We know they slow down during the middle of the year and ramp up again before finals. Their injury list isn't helping either at the moment with 5-6 starters out. On the other hand, Parra's recent form is a complete unknown. It could be them saving themselves for finals or it might just be that they aren't in the same form they were a few months ago. And if they are trying to taper things down before going on a run leading up to the finals, do they have the ability to do so like the Roosters do? It's not too worrying yet for Parra, but if they are still playing like this in the final few rounds you can put a line through their premiership hopes.
Phil
Roar Rookie
That's a pretty good summary of the comp. The way I see it we have three divisions with the 16 teams; Div1 Easts, Melbourne, Canberra, Parramatta and Penrith; Div2 Souths, Newcastle, Cronulla, Tigers and Manly; Div3 Brisbane, Cowboys, GoldCoast, Saints, Warriors and Canterbury. The last six can start planning their off season, the middle lot can hope for something beyond them this year and the top five will battle it out. Easts have dropped their halfback apparently to give him a "rest" because he has been so heavily targeted by the opposition. It looks a sign that they are brittle and not up for a third consecutive title this year. Melbourne and Penrith look the most likely two at this stage, repeat,at this stage. Canberra and Parramatta are good enough but seem to lack a knockout blow. I hope I'm wrong in my summation and Saints go on and win the comp.
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
Hi mushi. I also take on board the f/a as indicator. The first four teams have high f/a numbers then a big jump. Nothing really a certainty, both that is first thing a good to in thoughts
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
Hi Kang. Im an Eels fan. I’m with you on points but feel at finals time Easts could beat those teams more comfortably then the Eels atm. But a lot can happen in 8 weeks.
max power
Guest
the contenders are the ones that PVL changes the rules for.
mushi
Roar Guru
I can see injuries and the surface being the being a deciding factor. Maybe the Roosters/Raiders have been lucky by taking a lot now? who knows. Not sure that Parra have had the same issues and they're last among the 4 in F/A. Final placing 1-4 doesn't matter (provided you're 4th because of earlier injuries/form) with no true home field so Smith's time on the sideline shouldn't be too much of a concern either. On F/A there are 4 teams with +10-13 margins at present, the next best is the tigers around +4 who aren't in the 8 (the second 4 are all sub +4). That's a chasm. Whilst you'd expect two of them to drift higher over the coming weeks, even the Tigers lightning in a bottle 2005 campaign (I think the lowest premiers F/A since expansion in the 80s) was north of that.