A change of philosophy has arrived at North Melbourne – after seemingly endless years of top-up trades and mid-table madness, the Roos are rebuilding.
That’s the news as reported by Jake Niall at The Age, who writes that North have made a decision backed by the board to focus on the draft for at least the next two years rather than target mature recruits.
That might not seem strange or surprising for a side that currently finds itself in the AFL’s bottom four, but it represents a significant change of direction compared to how the club has recruited in recent history.
For a team that hasn’t spent a lot of time at the pointy end of the season over the last decade, North haven’t been sighted much in the early portion of the draft either.
They’ve take only one pick inside the top five – Luke Davies-Uniacke in 2017 – in the last ten years, and only three total since 1991. In the last ten years, they’ve had just two more picks inside the top ten.
Instead they’ve made a splash in the pursuit of big fish, launching brazen and invariably unsuccessful attempts to lure prominent players to the club. If you threw a cocktail party for footballers who’ve rejected North Melbourne, it’d have an A-grade guest list.
How often can a team hope to acquire elite talent without taking early draft picks or landing premium players at the trade table, then? Not very, and North’s list is a testament to this.
This isn’t to say the Kangaroos haven’t plucked the occasional brilliant player for a bargain price – All-Australian Shaun Higgins via free agency and Ben Brown with 287 goals and 130 games from pick 47 are great examples.
But just as you don’t win a football game by only taking low-percentage shots from the boundary, neither can you build a great AFL list by only finding diamonds in the rough. A few shots right in front of goal and some picks very early in the order go a long way towards getting results.
That is exactly what the Roos appear set to take into this year’s draft with both their own first-round pick and Melbourne’s in hand. On present ladder positions, they would be selections No.4 and No.7.
The Dees may well fire up in the latter half of the season, but even if they do it seems certain North will be going into the 2020 draft with their best hand of picks since 2002, when they took both Daniel Wells and Hamish McIntosh in the top ten.
But like any club embarking on a rebuild, the Roos will undoubtedly seek out every possible avenue of improving their draft position – and trading Ben Brown is the topic that has been raised by many.
Brown’s form in 2020 has been the topic of much conversation. After averaging just shy of three goals per game in recent years, he has booted only eight from nine appearances so far this season and is now set to spend some time on the sidelines with a knee injury.
The 27-year-old is out of contract at the end of this season but is not a free agent, with 2020 his seventh season on the Kangaroos’ list after arriving as a mature-age draftee.
(Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
It’s understandable that pundits could see cause for a parting of the ways between Brown and North Melbourne – but to put it in purely economic terms, selling your assets at their lowest value is rarely a good idea.
Realistically, one would assume the only clubs likely to put in an offer for Brown would be those that feel they’re contending for the premiership – and therefore likely only have a pick arriving late in the first-round to offer.
In a heavily compromised 2020 draft, a pick in the middle or late teens is a good chance to get blown out into the 20s, in a year where as much as half the draft pool may miss the season entirely due to the impacts of COVID-19.
That would be an underwhelming return for a player who has arguably been North’s best and most consistent over the last three years.
I would suggest that, while North should always have an ear open to offers, this compromised and unpredictable 2020 draft is not the one to be selling star players to get into.
Instead, the Roos would be wise to put some time into identifying those clubs most likely to place a premium on early picks this year and see what opportunties may exist to maximise the value of their draft hand.
We saw the likes of GWS and Fremantle pay over the odds last year to move up the order ahead of academy bids, and with so many pre-aligned prospects in this year’s pool there’s bound to be clubs interested in doing the same again.
The modern introductions of future pick trading and father-son and academy bidding have created plenty of situations where clubs can improve their positions simply through wise wheeling and dealing, without necessarily needing to move players on.
North have picked up five Rising Star nominations since the start of 2019 – the equal-most of any club in the league, tied with star-studded Gold Coast.
That suggests to me that there’s platform enough to build on without a pressing need to sell the farm – especially if those in the market are only bidding under the asking price.
Nothing is certain when it comes to rebuilding through the draft – but history suggests that, like kicking from straight in front of goal, if you take enough shots you’ll get a few through the sticks.
It’s going to be a new era at North Melbourne, and one that – if the club makes patient and prudent decisions – will offer plenty of excitement in the years to come.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
I think it's called restraint of trade. West coast would've been damaged more by that action than Geelong in the long run. They had already destroyed their credibility by complaining about "homesick" players returning to Melbourne themselves in the past.
Blitz
Guest
Very shortsighted opinion Seymour that I don’t have time to completely breakdown but further to my opening comment... Allen is a super mobile, very talented utility with 12 years of footy ahead of him that is currently Nic Nat’s back up ruckman (the best ruckman by a mile), he’s probably a future captain for icing on the cake. Mids are a dime a dozen - 194cm genuine utilities that can play most positions, including ruck, are not. Do you also believe that Carlton won on the Kennedy/Judd trade? I put Kennedy first as it’s clear to any objective observer that he has given more value to WC than Judd brought to Carlton (a flag - even though Judd gave it his all).
RT
Roar Rookie
And Carlton could have got Judd for nothing, so what is the point of this line of conversation?
Seymorebutts
Guest
No way it was win win for West Coast. They should have gotten him for nothing, once a player is out of contract by LAW he can go where-ever he wants. This has been backed up in the courts numerous times, both in Rugby League and the various Australian Rules leagues going back to a WAFL case in 1978, ''Adamson vs West Perth''. They could have got Kelly for nothing and kept their draft picks if they had of dug their heels in. IF WCE had of threatened court action the AFL would have pressured Geelong to fold because they know it will only take one court challenge to abolish the draft lock stock and barrel. You cant tell a kid with an engineering degree that he CANT work for BHP for example. An even better analogy would be, the best students get to work for the worst companies, while the kids with the worst grades get rewarded by going to the best companies. Its absurd.
Cracka
Roar Rookie
If it was I making the call I would trade Ben Brown to Carlton for a pick and Levi Casboult, as I see them Nth need a player that can take a mark/compete in their forward line and he would be cheap, use the pick a third rounder or whatever and trade them all for experienced players, I still feel they have a strong list and just need the right players added to their list.
HR
Roar Rookie
Might as well use the little grey cells for something...
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
Poirot lives!
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
If using your logic then North will never get there. The good players go to the destination clubs where they can see a pathway to the finals or at least some chance in the near future. North is not a destination club at the moment and unlikely to be for some time. They have missed players who have looked beyond a big pay packet for this reason. Unlike B1, I don't dislike teams, least of all North. I loved watching North when they had some great players. They would probably get more AFL help relocating but I doubt they'll get the largesse the expansion teams have been given from the AFL while in Melbourne. Fairness has never been a driver in the AFL.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
If it was that much of an advantage they would've had quite a few more champions from the Falcons who went on to star at other clubs. Too many to mention.
Paul D
Roar Rookie
Tom Rockliff
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Why not just draft from the next lot? Flanders has shown no more than the upcoming draftees.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Hardly a household name. What sport?
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
Who's your Brissie player they don't rip?
Parkside Darren
Roar Rookie
You out far too much value in a coach. The circumstances in which they commence are just as important. Geelong, Hawthorn and Richmond all has there time at the bottom and used the draft to rebuild. Your rewriting of history is what is embarrassing
Parkside Darren
Roar Rookie
Garbage Going Vegan and stopping partying to all ours saved Siddle’s career
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
I know you are all going to say Footy is a business & nothing else matters. But what sort an example would North be sending supporters like teenage boys growing up idolising Ben Brown. North could proceed in selling him off for early draft picks that might or might not have any future success but it is way too risky & could result in having a supporter backlash. Yes sometimes hard decisions have to be made but I don't believe losing Ben Brown would be a smart move for numerous reasons.
HR
Roar Rookie
The thing with the Crows is that the experienced players aren't really doing much at the moment, and they're all getting on a bit - but even then, most of the ones that deserve a spot are playing. Mackay and Gibbs are at the end of their careers (and they're not performing that well); Hartigan has always been there or thereabouts, but not really a core player; and the rest of the experienced contingent are playing most weeks, injury notwithstanding. The interesting thing about the Crows team is that they don't have many mid-career players: this is a pretty obscure stat, but if you look at the squad members who have played an AFL game, and look at the the coefficient of variation of the sample for each club, you get an idea of how many players are mid-career players, and how many are at the extremes of their careers (either at the start or end). The Crows are way above any other club when you look at this statistic, suggesting that relatively speaking, they're either very experienced or quite inexperienced. This is echoed when you look at the quartiles for the number of games the players that have played at AFL level have played (arrange players from least to most experienced, and these are the number of games played by the player 1/4, 1/2 and 3/4 of the way down the list): Lower quartile: Crows 8 games, league average 17 games Median: Crows 31 games, league average 62 games Upper Quartile: Crows 118 games, league average 133 games And the mean number of games played: Crows 71 games, league average 82 games So on average Adelaide are a bit less experienced than the average team, but their less experienced players are much less experienced than is normal across the league.
XI
Roar Guru
Brown hasn't won the Coleman. Or do you mean he could win a Coleman?
Dan in Devon
Guest
Sier is on the outer and would be a brilliant acquisition. They could probably get Sier and Cox for Brown. Cox has something to offer as a forward come ruckman.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
We will give you Steven dank then haha