In this compressed 17-game season, despite travelling to Perth, Queensland and Adelaide to play games from the fourth round onwards, Geelong have become one of the in-form teams of the competition.
Taking nothing for granted, this season there have been a few teams to watch for a crack at the premiership, including Port Adelaide, Geelong, Brisbane and Richmond. I reckon they are going to be the top four teams by the end of the home-and-away season.
Let’s look at Geelong. They’re one of the exciting teams to watch this season, as they have been from 2007 until 2019 when they missed the finals in only 2015. But ever since their last premiership in 2011 Geelong have underachieved in finals, with four preliminary final losses in 2013, 2016, 2017 and 2019, two elimination final losses in 2012 and 2018, and a straight-sets loss in 2014.
For those years they played in the preliminary finals, barring 2013 match, which they lost in a cliffhanger to Hawthorn, the game was lost in the first quarter. The same pattern applies for the elimination final loss to Fremantle in 2012 and Melbourne in 2018, in which they gave the opponent a five-goal head start in the first quarter that ultimately was the difference between winning and losing.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Last year Geelong were leading at halftime in the preliminary final but could not sustain the advantage when the pressure was turned on. Tom Hawkins and Mitch Duncan were sorely missed during the match.
Fast-forward to 2020, and barring the first-round loss to GWS and the first-quarter fade-out against Carlton, Geelong have been playing good, sustainable footy with strong defence and attack and generally good form on the contested ball and at the stoppages.
To bury the preliminary finals loss, the Geelong team of 2020 is more level-headed, better focused in their tasks, fitter coming back after the COVID-19 break and – touch wood – will be lucky with injuries.
With the condensed fixture Geelong were able to come back from a bye and grind out a victory against Adelaide last weekend, so the extra day’s rest could potentially help the team manage player load and help the recovery process.
There is some similarity between Geelong 2020 and Geelong 2007. After the first five rounds of 2007 Geelong were sitting with 2-3 win-loss record, but then in Round 6 they beat the Tigers at the MCG by 150-plus points and went on to win the next 19 of 20 games, the only loss coming to Port Adelaide in Round 21 by less than a kick. They of course claimed the flag that year.
Richmond now is the experienced team when it comes to finals campaign, having won two flags in the last three years. Their best game is good enough to kick a winning score against any team.
I can see Geelong winning the contested possessions and centre clearances for the year. The only difference is in 2007 we had dominant ruckman Brad Ottens, but if Rhys Stanley can stay fit throughout the finals, I like Geelong’s chances of getting a shot at the grand final.
Of course Geelong will have good motivation to win the flag given it’s the last season for Gary Ablett Jnr and Harry Taylor. How sweet it would be for both Geelong champions to win the flag in their final game.
Spanner
Roar Rookie
Haha - petrified !
Spanner
Roar Rookie
Yeah, the upset was that Geelong didnt turn up - weak !
Jimmy
Guest
Geelong 2007 was an excellent team but Cats supporters are not great with AFL history. Essendon 2000 no comparison. Collingwood 1929 was undefeated in regular season. Melbourne circa 56-61 best team ever. Geelong started that season 1-2 after all. It was an excellent team but there’s been several better.
Mooty
Roar Rookie
The arrogance of Geelong supporters will always amaze me. Reading in the comments here that the 2007 flag side was the greatest ever and the start of of a great dynasty. I’ve got news for you people, Geelong didn’t win the flag in 2008 or 2010. To compound this arrogance I’ve heard it repeated ad nauseam from supporters and a couple of players that Geelong were the best team on the day in the 2008 Grand Final. I say to them go and check the score in the history book.
Dangersphere 10
Roar Rookie
There is definitely respect there Neil, despite some harsh comments and animosity over the last few years. Certainly after last years final there is real respect for the tigers and their brand from the cats, CS said as much in the presser this week.
Dangersphere 10
Roar Rookie
love CS, always have. I think he is a classic example of being a "victim of your own success" - as in, qualifying for SO many finals that the defeats start to become the centre of attention, rather than your immense effort to qualify for them 9 times out of 10. Most clubs would love to have him, and equally so to qualify for so many finals campaigns. That being said, I really do hope this year is the one, both for his sake and the rest of the senior players, they deserve it. As for a dynasty, we must wait and see.. I believe, given the still decent age bracket and form of some of the key position players such as Hawki, Danger, Blitz, Selwood, Stewi and the rest, and the draft picks brought in via the kelly trade, there might still be hope for another 1 or 2 cups before the window closes for a while. But they'll need to win it this year to build the self belief required to get the most out of the group for the next 2-3 years, because realistically, the current window won't close until 2023-24, unless it's accelerated by continuous last hurdle failures, and the psychological scarring/accumulative strain that accompanies it. So win it against the odds this year, and it could yet be the beginning of something special.
Jake Ramzy
Finally the whole country can see who are the better football players. No home ground advantage to save you this time Richmond your going to get flogged like the second rate side that you are. The cats will be Champions this year as we should of been in 2014, 2016 and 2019.
Mark
Roar Rookie
I think there may be an upset brewing!
2dogs
Roar Rookie
FYI I never lost to Warrandyte whilst playing for Lilydale ! We might have only played once though :silly:
2dogs
Roar Rookie
Maybe respect for the previous few years of success. And respect for any opponent. But I think they have more respect for their own club culture and confidence not to be scared of any teams previous success
Milo
Roar Rookie
Right here, right now its Geelong's premiership to lose. They are a far different team that dominated at KP but couldnt get through to the GF. Possibly the best thing for them was to play most of their season away from KP and get on a roll and building the self belief. Win or somehow lose tomorrow night, it doesn't matter for them. Some could argue a close loss will even help them come finals time. Geelong is clear favourites for mine, and it would be possibly their most disappointing season since 2008 to not win the GF from here.
Neil from Warrandyte
Roar Rookie
Scared.... perhaps. I’d prefer to say that the tigers very much respect the cats. I wonder if the sentiment is reciprocated though?
Neil from Warrandyte
Roar Rookie
Essendon of 2000, were just a little better. Should have won another premiership or two.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Going very well the Cats. Timing their run to perfection. Can they send out GAJ with the Fairy tale finish?
Nick
Roar Guru
So long as Chris Scott doesn't tinker with the game plan and introduce a "finals" style of football, then Geelong have a first class ticket to the GF. What they do in the H/A season shouldn't change in the finals.
Matty
Roar Rookie
The Geelong team of 2007 was the best team of all time in my view. No-one comes even a close second. The deliberately challenged themselves to "come from behind" to test how much they could do and nailed it almost everytime. Truly a remarkable side.
Parer Ben
Roar Rookie
It would be quite something to beat the Tigers by that margin on Friday. Another slight error by omission is Geelong played two games in Sydney - the pre-lockdown GWS game and the traditional SCG match up with Brisbane. ;). That might prove interesting if our first final is against them at the Gabba. The margin was a couple of goals and playing at Brisbane’s home ground is surely worth that amount.
2dogs
Roar Rookie
Tigers are scared of the Cats
Boo
Guest
Can't compare any Geelong side or probably any side since for that matter with the 07 team unbelievable winning percentage after round 5 including two victories over 100 points in the finals.Like all Cats fans it's a wait and see what happens during the finals .In most results this year one side has been fresher due to the irregularities of the draw the finals will revert to a more usual programme of games every weekend so the best team should prevail , hopefully Geelong.
Goalsonly
Roar Rookie
High stakes poker on Friday night. The Tigers are four of a kind and holding the pot. The cats are calling with full house and the river card to come. There's a straight flush on the table somewhere but not this hand. And the cats have three aces up their sleeve when the dealings done. But that's another game.