After last week delisting 11 players within less than 24 hours of their final match of the season, North Melbourne have in recent days taken yet more steps in what looks set to be a radical playing list shakeup, placing a trio of established players in Shaun Higgins, Jared Polec and Ben Brown on the trade table.
Polec was one of the controversies of North Melbourne’s season, dropped twice during the year despite appearing to be in relatively good form on the field. It’s now clear that North are willing to trade out Polec and even pay part of his contract if made a reasonable offer, with Melbourne understood to be interested in a deal.
Higgins had his name thrown around at the end of 2019 but re-signed with the club – but he too is clearly available this off-season if he can find a new home elsewhere, and Geelong and St Kilda have both been linked to the 32-year-old.
Those are names that North fans will be sorry to see exit the club, but most would accept that their depatures are a logical enough part of rebuidling a playing list that, in its current form, clearly lacks the potential to be anything other than a mid-table team.
Far more bold is the decision to push Ben Brown towards a new home, a move which the club confirmed it was undertaking in a public statement released on Wednesday.
Looking at it logically, the are arguments both for and against North’s decision.
One could make the point that, although he’s had a poor season, a proven key forward talent like Brown is probably North Melbourne’s most valuable, if not their only truly valuable trade asset, and that if the club wants to make a serious effort to acquire extra draft picks then they don’t have many other options.
On the other hand, it’s also true that Brown’s current value on the trade market is lower than it has ever been, and has only been tanked further by North publicly seeking to push him out of the club. Whatever interested parties come forward appear likely to kick the tires and lowball the Roos at the trade table.
Ross Lyon summed up this point of view well when responding to the news on Footy Classified: “Stategically as a club, even if that’s what you thought, why would you tell him and his manager ‘we don’t want you’ and put it to the market place? How are they going to get true value for him now?”
(Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
That’s par for the course for a club that has failed utterly at any attempt to keep its trade wheelings and dealings out of the headlines over the past five years. And maybe it’s just the Melbourne COVID lockdown anxiety talking, but it’s hard to escape the feeling of impending catastrophe.
It may well be the case that a suitor willing to pay a fair price for Brown emerges during the trade period and that could allow North Melbourne to take three first-round picks into the 2020 draft, a possibility that it is hard not to be excited by.
But there is no doubt that the club as a whole and in particular senior coach Rhyce Shaw is gambling a lot on this move proving to be a wise one.
North’s statement on Brown was released following an article by Sam McClure for The Age in which McClure stated that Shaw “believes Brown’s lead-up play is not suited to his preferred game style”.
Rhyce Shaw has played 237 games of AFL football, won a premiership as a player in 2012, won the NEAFL Coach of the Year award in 2016 and the AFLCA’s Assistant Coach of the Year award twice in 2017 and 2018. He knows a lot more about football and coaching football than I do.
But even taking that into account: it is a mighty bold thing to say that a player who has proven they can regularly kick 60+ goals in a season isn’t a good fit for your team, tactically, especially when that team averaged less than five goals per game in its last five matches of the season.
Maybe it will prove a masterstroke. Perhaps the change of setup is just what North needs to revitalise its faltering forward line, possibly the young talent acquired at the draft will more than justify the decision to part with a player North fans are very fond of.
But it’s just as easy, if not easier, to picture disaster: a 2021 season where Brown flourishes at his new home while North linger in the bottom two, regularly failing to boot more than half a dozen goals in a game, young forwards struggling to develop without a mature teammate to provide structure and draw defensive focus.
If that proves to be the case then fans’ patience with Rhyce Shaw, already tested by the confusing and uncompetitive performances of 2020, will begin to wear thin. I for one still rate the decision to appoint him as senior coach, even though the 2020 season has been a shaker of confidence.
Trading Ben Brown might prove to be Shaw’s defining moment – a bold decision that pays off, and puts North Melbourne’s rebuild on the right path and points fans in the direction of a bright future. As a fan of the club, I can only hope so.
But AFL coaching careers can end very quickly when you bugger something up. This could just as easily be his undoing.
RT
Roar Rookie
I think the estimated values are more about Cameron and Daniher being free agents and wanted, whereas Brown has to seek a trade and there must be an element if, "even North don't want him". I find the negativity around Brown surprising still. He's done well in a poor team. Plenty of good forwards wouldn't.
Dean
Guest
Great comment. I think it's the lack of North fans/support which is to blame for his poor rating in the footballing public. Playing at North in front of no fans has apparently shot Ben Brown's value by $100k+ per year. Conversely, playing for Richmond at the moment boosts your value by $100k+ per year. Young guns would be aware of this. Stay at north for a long period of time and be worth less than fair value.
Dean
Guest
Using average marks per game 2016-2019 (excluding 2020), Comfortably beats Kennedy 4 out of 4 years , Draw with Lynch 2/2. Draw with Darling 2/2, draw with Hawkins 2/2 The fact that he's arguably top 5 contested marks in the league, but also just a one-dimensional lead-up forward is laughable absurdism. They've all averaged between ~1.5-2.5 CM per year for the 4 years 2016-2019
Davico
Roar Pro
"all 3 players would prefer to be there than anywhere else (except perhaps Daniher to Sydney)" "My comments are based on a logical assessment of these 3 player’s situation and the position Collingwood are in at the moment" Two very different things! I get that this is a comments/opinions based website, but lets not try to just make up rubbish! As you did suggest Daniher would like to move to Sydney, so that is 33% of your original comment down the toilet! Have you spoken to the players? Not sure if you have noticed, but there are plenty of players who are happy to take the most money that anyone can give them, and don't care if they win a flag! And good luck to them. At the end of the day they are doing a job and they should maximise their income while they can! Do you know for a fact that Brown does not want a change of lifestyle? Cameron would be a good fit at pretty much any club, so why do you feel the Pies can play hardball when it comes to him? Stating that Collingwood would be able to play hard ball to get any of these guys cheap was just a dumb statement, that had no basis on any factual evidence.
Brendan
Guest
Rejuvenate the list? I appreciate the endeavor but query the approach of North. Let's say he ends up at Collingwood for their second round pick as some have touted in the media, which is currently 35 but may fall lower should the win this week. After the academies have their way with the draft, this pick may become 45. North has done well with Curtis Taylor at 46, but it is still gambling territory. How much does that rejuvenate the team? And was Ben Brown clogging up space in the forwards that Taylor Garner can now fill? North has form when it comes to cutting stars to "rejuvenate" the team.
Brendan
Guest
Let's compare the three forwards being touted at the moment: Cameron, Daniher and Brown. Mitch Cleary evaluated their market value at 1 million, 750,000 and 600,000 p.a. respectively, and stated that Ben Brown would only find a place after the first two were taken. This suggests that Daniher is 25% better than Brown, while Cameron is nearly twice as good as Brown. But this doesn't add up. Each are around the same age, with Daniher being 26 while the other two 27. So its apples with apples. Over the past 4 years, Cameron has played three more games than Brown, while Daniher has only played 11 games in the last 3 years. Cameron has kicked 193 at 2.47 goals per game, Brown 196 at 2.61 goals per game, while Daniher has kicked 80 at 2.35. So Brown is on par with Cameron, while Daniher has suffered from not getting onto the park. There therefore is a question mark over Daniher's body. So maybe Brown is one dimensional - a leading forward that kicks goals only if delivered just right, but nothing with else to offer? Well let's look at contested marks. This is a mixed statistic, sometimes showing proficiency of power forwards - a separate dimension of play -, sometimes showing flexibility for situations where delivery isn't quite to the lead, and sometimes indicating when the forward helps out in defense in this modern game, clunking marks down the line to link with fellow teammates running past. Here Cameron achieved 86 at 1.1 per game, Daniher 63 at 1.85 per game, and Brown? He had 120 contested marks at 1.6 per game. In fact, Brown varied from 4th to 15th in the league for contested marks over the last 5 years, this year exempted. And if we look at the 1 percenters, the state that shows how team oriented the player is, putting their body on the line. Brown has generally hovered in league rank between 100 and 150, compared to Daniher (180 in the only year that counted) and Cameron (about rank 250). Cameron edges out Brown in goal assists 39 to 32, as well as tackles, 122 to 82. But when it came to helping to lock it in the forward 50, Brown edged out Cameron in the inside 50 tackle count, 49 to 48. So Brown's stats are not the stats of a one dimensional or a selfish player. In fact they are about the same or even better than both Cameron and Daniher. So the market value is oddly skewed.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
Apparently GWS were prepared to offer him $750k a season.
Scott
Guest
More like a great example of someone lying. He has only ever averaged more contested marks then those 3 players in 2017 and only just. That was Tom Lynch’s disaster last year at Gold Coast and Kennedy and Darling play on the same team so are sharing the contests. His other good year 2016 he was still well below Tom lynch. His career stats look better as well because he was drafted as a mature ager. He isn’’t actually that bad at contested marks but using those 3 players as examples was way off
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
If we needed a forward I'd take him. Always seemed like a quality person. Maybe we could swap Polec for Schache (we're drafting the no 1 key forward this year, so I presume Schache will be put on the trade table).
Dean
Guest
New coach, best midfielder out, pregnant Mrs at home, Corona Hub, lost a child. If he were a racehorse and had a bad day like that, he'd still be odds-on to perform next start.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Great evidence of his prowess, Dean. I think the biggest problem hurting his value is twofold: (1) mystery what happened to him this year, and (2) nobody watches North, so they don't actually know how he plays or realise how good he is. I remember watching him last year against the Dogs and being surprised how agile, competitive and quick of mind he was.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
Yeah, total head scratcher. I understand the theory, North haven't bottomed out and rebuilt, so that's what he's going for, but you would think that's going to take 5 to 7 years, there's no way he survives that.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I don't want 2 metre Peter. We have a 2 metre beanpole already in Cox. Same number of games basically and Cox has a better contested mark average and basically identical goal average. I also think Cox is the better ruck of the two.
Dean
Guest
Then North release a statement saying they don't want Brown because they're changing the forward-line structure to one which apparently doesn't require a person who is one of the top 4 in the league for marking the ball and kicking goals.
Dean
Guest
There's a body of work as head coach to compare him against now. He took a team he said could make finals to basket case. He'll be looking for a new occupation if Brown kicks 60 in a Prelim-team and the Roos finish bottom 2.
Dean
Guest
I would have thought the solution to only having one avenue to goal would be to get more forwards, not to sack the one you've got, but here we are. Lunacy.
Dean
Guest
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6YxxTW99-k&list=PL4mEsotXal6OR9WQaZ9cWe3fRuthk5AEJ&index=17 I wouldn't say this is very one-dimensional. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nN5fsdkz1A Not really out of date having a big night against the Tigers defence https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L87YEcyf5wQ This was last season, FFS.
Maxy
Roar Rookie
After moore and degoey sign 7 year deals PTS im afraid 2 metre peter would be your only option left
DTM
Roar Rookie
Collingwood is not my club - never has been and never will be. Although I do respect the club and their history. FYI I have been a member of WCE for over 20 years. My comments are based on a logical assessment of these 3 player's situation and the position Collingwood are in at the moment (ie a desperate need for a key forward of this type). Answer this question: If you were Cameron, Brown or Daniher, where would you want to play in 2021? Take into consideration other teams' lists and how you would fit into their forward line. Also consider the coaches and the clubs potential for a premiership within the next 3-5 years. I can understand Daniher's desire to go to Sydney but where will the other two go?
Dave
Roar Rookie
Goddard, dal santo and Lyon Wouldn’t have left so they could be competing for a couple more years as well. I’m not actually sure how they managed to fit all that talent in 1 lineup but it could have been due to reduced salaries.