I get it, it’s the end of rugby in Australia as the Wallabies managed to suffer a wet-weather thrashing to *checks notes* the All Blacks!?
Yes, I know this was a team we used to compete against, but can we all please take a deep breath and remember that in the world of international rugby, losing to the All Blacks isn’t actually unusual.
At the very least, rugby fans in other countries wouldn’t be declaring the death of their sport if they lost to an Kiwi side playing like they did on Saturday.
The problem we have is we lose to the All Blacks a lot.
The media has a simple standard to declare if Australian rugby is alive again: winning back the Bledisloe. And I get it, surely we can just beat that team we used to beat like old times?
But if every other nation had a Bledisloe Cup with New Zealand, requiring at least two victories in a single year, how many would actually get close to getting their hands on the trophy?
Since 2010, no team has beaten the All Blacks more than the Wallabies. Let that sink in.
Now, there is the awkward accompanying fact is that no team has been beaten by the All Blacks as much, but let’s dig a bit deeper into the stats.
From 2010 to the end of 2019, Australia played the All Blacks 30 times. We won five of those games and lost 23, with two draws. But keep in mind, 13 of those losses came in New Zealand, where they are incredibly hard to beat. In fact, the Kiwis only lost five games at home over these ten years and two of those were to the Wallabies.
Overall, our average match score for that period is 31-19, an equal deficit to South Africa’s average of 29-17, and better than every other nation except England, who average 23-20. However it is relevant to note that of England’s nine games, only three were played in New Zealand.
(Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
It is also worth a mention that the graveyard of Eden Park, where New Zealand have only lost ten times since 1921 and are undefeated since 1994, is usually where the Wallabies are forced to try their luck. Over the last decade, the Wallabies played at Eden Park more than any other team (eight times). South Africa only had to enter the cauldron twice!
The fact is we should aim to beat the All Blacks every game and we should be disappointed if we don’t, but let’s not lose our understanding of where we are in the game because we don’t get to play regularly against Six Nations teams on our home turf.
During that decade, when our ranking fell to its lowest point, the Wallabies only lost seven home games to Six Nations teams, with ten victories, a win rate of just under 59 per cent.
There are few teams across any sport with the consistent ability to win like the rugby-obsessed nation of New Zealand.
We are blooding a young team, with most in their first year of professional rugby. Writing off our sport because they failed to win back the Bledisloe on their first go is ludicrous.
Please, let’s keep perspective. Australia has been doing OK and a lot of us have a good feeling that things are about to get a lot better.
sheek
Roar Guru
Yes, all we need to do, is stop playing New Zealand. And probably South Africa as well. Also, England. And maybe just for good measure, we might skip France as well. There, with those four out of way, we might start looking like world beaters.
Micko
Roar Rookie
What did McLennan "wish for"?
Micko
Roar Rookie
The kiwis have won a lottery in finding a sport they can dominate Australia at, and to say they love it is an understatement. Also the fact the aussies naively agreed to an annual 3 match trophy with NZ in a sport so small in Australia we can't realistically be competitive with NZ in was the wrong thing to do. Only South Africa is competitive enough with NZ in rugby union to the point of making an annual 3 match interesting.
Deepthinker
Roar Rookie
So we should lower our expectations, i get that. Maybe RA should try lowering the price of admission? whos going to fork out $150+ to be all but assured to cop stick from AB fans. I already get that for free at work thanks. Maybe if the tickets were more reasonable there would be a better atmosphere for both crowd and players and build a home field advantage, not to mention getting kids more involved in the experience of the sport. Covid capacity issues aside, i doubt the tickets would sell out if it was only Aussie supporters buyers.
Ad-O
Guest
Yeah plenty. England, Ireland twice, couldn't get past the Lions, schellacked by a dysfunctional Wallabies last year, they even needed a last minute score to get past Scotland at Murrayfield a couple years back. This AB team may still be top dog but is only part of the pack, not out ahead of it.
Buk
Roar Rookie
Yes he did Mike; his major sin was to follow Knuckles, who had a relatively brief but successful tenure, and secondly, being not that long after Rod McQueen.
Mike
Roar Rookie
Looked at over the whole career, and against all opponents, Deans did significantly better than the others.
Andrew Coorey
Guest
Sensible, cold hard data. Thanks for writing.
Val Saunders
Guest
Excellent observation that the Wallabies are now like other Australian companies in not valuing experience. Blaming youth for losses is just an easy excuse. As a supporter I want to see my team win all the time (unrealistic) and I expect the best players to be chosen in every position every game. The introduction of young players has to be handled with care and not just based on a few good games at Super level. The current push is for Hosea to start in the next test. Now he may be a great talent but he has only started 7 games for the Rebels and played 500 minutes of rugby, which equates to 6.25 games of senior professional rugby! I don't believe that is enough to play and have any chance of playing well against the AB's. Now Caderyn Neville for example may not be the talent of Hosea and is 'old' at 31 (Alun Wyn Jones is 35 by the way) but he is a mature professional with experience both here and in Japan. To my mind it is better to play Neville and keep working with Hosea - how you get him more game time at a level below the internationals is an Australian problem though. So please Rennie, RA and most commentators stop using the excuse of youth, pick the best team available and coach them well!!
Micko
Roar Rookie
And realistically being two hours away, and with kiwis flooding Australia to the extent that around 15% of their citizens live here now, what "home" advantage is there? Kiwis were outnumbering aussie fans at Sydney games since the late 70's!
Micko
Roar Rookie
Those NZ selectors don't help their cause with their baffling selections: keep picking a weak spinner like Santner when they had three vastly superior spinners. Refused to pick the 2m tall Jamieson in Australia, but keep selecting has-beens like one trick pony swing specialist Southee and mediocre Henry. They finally dropped that useless opener and took a punt on backup keeper Blundell as an opening batsman since they knew he could bat...and he went out and hit a great century at the MCG. A less conservative selection approach would help NZ, especially in Australia. And to be fair, selecting Ferguson as a tearaway fast bowler was a good idea, but with virtually no lead in match practice he was bound to break down, especially in the harsh conditions here in Perth, where it reached 43 degrees on that first day!
Phil
Guest
Maybe,max,it is your thinking that is wrong?I don't believe we should just roll over and take getting beaten by the Kiwis,but let's face it they are the undisputed best rugby playing nation in the world(OK,South Africans will probably disagree at the moment).They have consistently been at the top for as long as I have been watching rugby(and I can tell you that's a very long time!).I can still vividly recall watching Ray Price trying single handedly to stop a rampaging All Blacks pack at the SCG in the mid 70's(unsuccessfully!)and then the euphoria when we finally beat them there a few years later. The schedule this year of having to play them 4 times in a row is just too much,although we all know the reasons why and were happy to just have international rugby to watch.Let's cut them a bit of slack this year and see what Rennie and his crew can do when things get back to a bit of normality.
CPM
Roar Rookie
‘ Since 2010, no team has beaten the All Blacks more than the Wallabies. Let that sink in’ Statistically speaking no team plays the ABs more than the wallabies. Let that sink in! Also let it sink in that Aus is a drought ravaged county where it hardly rains and where playing in wet conditions is something the current group of players last did when they were still in primary school.
maxxlord
Roar Rookie
This type of thinking is what is wrong with the Aussie game. How much time wasted coming up with "stats" to justify an unacceptable record loss?? I mean what exactly are you defending, the freedom to lose by record margins? This is non progressive. Fact is we were not good enough and must get better. Analysis that tries to make the humiliation seem like it is not so bad only makes sure the same continues. The All Blacks will feed into this by telling us how great we are and how tight the game was. Really?? End the delusion.
potsie
Guest
Plenty?
Flyman
Roar Rookie
@Carrick - "Writing off our sport because they failed to win back the Bledisloe on their first go is ludicrous" - that's what happens when you believe your own PR - various commentators and players saying that this is a side filled with 20 year old champions who haven't lost to the MIB - huge reality check. I guess stats are stats, but I do admire your optimism.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
We all suffered through it! I was at the game when it happened the first time. He was so brave to dismiss it. Different times, I suppose.
sheek
Roar Guru
Carlos, Okay, I thought Sansot was injury prone because he seemed to be out of action a lot. Okay, just the one injury, but a recurring one.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Sansot was not injury prone. He only had one injury, a shoulder dislocation poorly managed. This shortened his career. He never treated this well. Sadly. I played against Tommy Petersen but not Madero.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Union is a second-tier sport. As soon as people understand this, the sooner they'll get over losing to the All Blacks where it's a tier 1 sport. Yes yes....we'll occasionally win, but the Kiwis occasionally beat us at cricket & league too — 'occasionally' being the operative word.