We all knew it would end this way: deadline day has arrived and with more than a dozen trades still waiting in limbo, it is set to be a fast-paced and dramatic end to the trade period – just as it always is.
Nothing is unexpected about that. There are always deals where neither party is willing to budge until the clock runs out, and often some where clubs remain stoic. But if there’s one trade I’m surprised to see still on the to-do list, it’s Jeremy Cameron.
That’s not because this trade necessarily looks like a simple transaction, but because Geelong have a reputation for paying the price and getting deals done – and so far they haven’t lived up to it.
At the start of the week their best offer was reportedly two first-rounders for Cameron, which was later confirmed to be the last two of their three first-round picks this year – 15 and 20.
Let me share with you probably my biggest trader period pet peeve: when someone says “first-rounder” as if any given first-round pick is equivalent to any other. Pick 1 is a first-rounder, so is Pick 18, and there’s a world of difference between them.
Is Jeremy Cameron worth two first-rounders? If we’re talking about Picks 4 and 10 then sure, that’s probably about right, perhaps a little over. If we’re talking Picks 15 and 20, then come on – serious offers only, please.
The latest on Wednesday was that the Cats have given up a little ground and are now putting forward an offer of Picks 13 and 15. That’s certainly closer to the right price but for mine, still not enough – especially given that they’ll likely be pushed out at least two or three places by NGA bids.
The Cats seem almost surprised that GWS are driving such a hard bargain for a two-time All Australian, Coleman Medal-winning key forward in the prime of his career. I don’t really understand how they could be.
There’s no rule against hypocrisy in the AFL, but their reluctance to pay the price for such an elite and hard-to-find talent is very much at odds with the compensation they demanded for Tim Kelly’s exit last year.
But, it would be unfair of me to suggest that only one party is responsible for this deal being held up. The Giants reportedly ignored calls from the Cats in the first week of trade period – which was presumably a negotiating tactic of some kind, but just comes off a bit childish.
What surprises me more about the Giants is that they reportedly offered Cameron only $750,000 to stay at the club, but were happy to match his much larger contract offer at the Cats – reportedly around $900,000 per year. Why not stump that up when they still had a chance?
It seems both parties have needed some time to get serious about this deal, and because of that it is one that’s still yet to be completed on the final day of the trade period. And to be fair to both, that’s not a crime. There are no prizes for getting deals done early.
Still, the Giants are – in my view – a club that needs to add mature talent to its list, rather than more draft picks. I can’t help but wonder if by playing games with the Cats, rather than look to negotiate in goodwill as early as possible, they’ve missed the opportunity to do just that.
As for the Cats, that good reputation is perhaps the only thing they are at risk of losing by playing hardball – as I have no doubts that Cameron will get to them one way or another. Perhaps they’re not worried if it takes a bit of a hit.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos/Getty Images)
But maybe they should be. They’ve seen a lot of mature players nominate them as a preferred destination in recent years and it’s been that stream of talent that’s kept this club competitive – and I don’t doubt their good professional standing is part of the reason why.
That’s a deal I’m confident will get done – but the future is a bit less clear for some others. Josh Dunkley and Orazio Fantasia stand out as players who I wouldn’t be surprised to see still in their original colours this time tomorrow.
The Bulldogs are reportedly demanding Essendon cough up two first-rounders for Dunkley. Is it overs? Well, that ambiguous term “first-rounder” comes into it again – if we’re talking two of Essendon’s top ten selections, then yes.
But Dunkley is contracted, so the Dogs hold all the cards. I don’t think they would feel reluctant at all to keep him on the list if their demands aren’t met.
It took until the final hour but two years ago when Essendon were in a similar situation with a contracted Dylan Shiel, they did finally blink and pay the price – I don’t think the Dogs have forgotten that.
The Fantasia trade, on the other hand, is a deal neither club seems to be budging on. Given that Port Adelaide could sign him as a free agent in 2021 if they wished to, I’m not sure the motivation is there to increase their offer – so it may come down to whether or not Essendon are willing to hold him.
For both the Bombers and the Giants, their positions will be made all the more complex by the fact they need to get multiple other deals done on the day.
Jye Caldwell is trying to move between them, and GWS will want to get something out of Adelaide for Jackson Hately – suffice to say it could be a late night for both of those clubs.
Another developing situation is that of Jaidyn Stephenson, who in the last 24 hours has reportedly become a ’50-50′ chance to join North Melbourne.
While Stephenson was originally intent on remaining at Collingwood, it now seems that he is seriously weighing up an offer from the Kangaroos – and if he says yes, then North and the Magpies will need to strike a deal in speedy fashion.
It’s said that Collingwood want a first-rounder in return for Stephenson but North would only offer a second. That might still do it, depending on how desperate the Magpies are to clear out cap space.
They’ve put Stephenson, Adam Treloar, Tom Phillips and Mason Cox on the table during this trade period as they look to make room in their salary cap – but here we are on deadline day and they are all still contracted to Collingwood for 2021.
Ben Brown, Jack Higgins and Alex Withderden to Melbourne, St Kilda and West Coast are all deals we expect to see get done today as well.
Could there be a curveball on top somewhere too? Here’s looking forward to finding out.
Captain Courageous
Roar Rookie
Tim Kelly is the gift that keeps on giving.... 2 years of fantastic service, now hes handed us Jeremy Cameron on a platter for pick 20 #inwellswetrust
AJ73
Roar Rookie
Hi Bobby it is based on about 10 to 11 thousand boxes that record the viewer’s age, location, and what they watch. Not much else. So one box could equate to around 2500 – 3000 TV’s. As far as I know, it doesn’t consider the number of people watching the TV unless they individually log on. You can’t ask for a box and you are not supposed to tell anyone you have one. More info can be found here https://www.nielsentam.com.au/
DB
Guest
Cameron is worth more than picks 13 and 15 on the open market, but that doesn't really matter when there's actually only one buyer you can negotiate with. At the end of the day, if a deal isn't done, GWS lose Cameron for nothing and Geelong keep 3 first round picks. I know GWS didn't want to lose Cameron for pick 11, but losing him for nothing would be an absolute embarassment. So I think Geelong are right to wait for GWS to blink and they're being generous for giving as much as they have, given their bargaining power. You can argue that GWS could just redraft him, but I don't think they'd be arrogant enough to try and redraft someone who clearly doesn't want to be there.
Bobby
Guest
One thing I've never understood and would love to have explained is how TV ratings are figured out? Is it the amount of TV's that are tuned into a particular channel? Because in that case, a rating figure of 2 million would probably equal about 4 million actual viewers. Or do they apply an average per tv set to the figures we see?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Fair point . The way we are going Kane we probably would have put him in the twos and be offering him up for trade.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Yes please!
Goalsonly
Roar Rookie
If I wanted to go to a place in Sydney to soak up a little of a GWS Grand Final week anticipation vibe where would I go? What street? Not this year but in five years time. Footy is not just about body sizes and stats that matter although it is a numbers game up to a point. There is such a thing as the vibe. You don't sell the sausage you sell the sizzle so to speak. How does this relate to the trade? It doesn't. But it kinda does. Connection to place is not a TV experience. And for all the huge rating numbers the AFL rakes up it's still a pretty small part of the population. One in twelve Aussies watch the "triple the numbers" event that is the GF. Most people prefer the other world... the one outside the front door. Some of them even play in the AFL.
Kane
Roar Rookie
Naughton was drafted as a backman then turned into a forward by the Dogs Pete, would Collingwood have turned him into a forward?
Macca
Roar Rookie
I said best case they get him at 13, more likely they simply cut GWS out, trade 13 & 15 for 6 and take him then, as I said above.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
The Pies had decided on Aaron Naughton in the 2017 AFL draft. Someone in list management then invoked the “Patrick Cripps rule”. After looking over Cripps in the 2013 AFL draft (along with a number of clubs) due to concerns on lack of pace, the club in their draft review decided to not go past kids with pure footballer instincts, hence went for Stephenson at pick 6 passing over Naughton who is very much exactly what the club now needs. To let him go now for a second round pick would be not only admitting a mistake but compounding it.
Jack
Guest
Does anyone else find that Godard has done minamul research on player status and has extreme bombers bias on trade radio? The guy is struggling at the level ...
DEESNUTSRBIG
Guest
:thumbdown: Essendon would take him at 6 in the national draft so Geelong would have to trade multiple 1sts to GC to get pick 5. Deal will get done in the prime TV viewers slot - 13 + 15 + a bit more.
Macca
Roar Rookie
"Now its Geelong who need to get this done" Or what? Worst case Cameron stays at GWS putting a massive strain on their Salary cap and the Cats have added two quality players to a grand final side. Best case Cameron nominates for the national draft and the cats take him at 13.
Brian
Guest
That's the type of arrogant attitude that got Adelaide to give them Dangerfield for nothing. Think GWS have learnt and were right to drag Geelong to this point. Now its Geelong who need to get this done. They've already taken Smith & Higgins its all eggs in the 2021 premiership basket.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
If North pays Stephenson’s full contract then a second round pick sounds reasonable. If Collingwood paid part of his contract then a first round pick would be OK. Interesting that we can put a money value on picks.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Honestly you generally can’t get a better team to deal with than Geelong and the fact the could likely swap 13 & 15 with the Bombers for 6 and then simply take the out of contract Cameron makes GWS’s calls for 3 first round picks not only unrealistic but redundant. Also the comparison to Kelly isn’t exactly like for like, Kelly was 25 and coming off an AA year Cameron will be 28 at the start of next season and coming off a career worst year. It should also be remembered this was the Kelly trade; The Cats will receive selections 14, 24 and 37 in the 2019 AFL national draft and the Eagles first selection in the 2020 AFL national draft in return for Kelly, Geelong’s pick 57 in the 2019 AFL national draft and a third-round selection in 2020.
Vicboy
Roar Rookie
Not sure of all your logic Josh. We can’t laud Geelong etc for paying players below market for a chance of a flag; pan Collingwood and Sydney for having no cap space for paying market price; then pay out on GWS for trying to manage, what is a star studded list, with prudent salaries. I expect GWS to play finals next year or have a crisis clean out mid-season off the field. The warning signs were there with Wayne Campbell getting the flick before the end of the previous season. Let’s hope North gets their set up right off field (obviously didn’t in 2020) to ensure sustainable development and success. Not sure Stephenson is the young gun that others can get behind. Short term win on paper..... Jack Higgins has been supported through his brain operations. It will take a bit for him to be back on all cylinders. Prior to this would have been rated above Hunter Clark. St Kilda could do a straight swap if they rate the talent and Richmond IP ; )
DEESNUTSRBIG
Guest
13 and 15 is already on the table. GWS want 13, 15, 20. Deal probably ends up 13, 15, 20 for Cameron, 44 and future 2nd (around 40) or 13, 15 + 2021 2nd round pick for Cameron. Unless a 3rd team is worked into the deal. Can also see GWS or Geel moving 2 of those picks to Ess for 7 or 8 unless Brisbane 18+19 beat them to the deal. Deal will get done, made for TV timeslot, keep the AFL happy.
1DER
Guest
Cameron's trade value should be around value of pick 1 and GWS are in a strong position with regard to what Geelong are sitting on with picks in 2020. GWS definitely need experience and have now lost their way with the player exodus and are are in no mans land with plenty of picks coming but no personnel. Maybe the AFL should use GWS as a development arm where all the 1st round draft picks go to them for two to four years and then up for trade. Bombers are in a strong position and we will now see how much the Bulldogs value Dunkley's role and leadership. Trade value would be around picks 4 to 5, however, he is still under contract to factor in the deal.