After giving the Maroons an absolute trouncing in Sydney last week, the Blues have their tails up heading into the State of Origin decider, playing a team dubbed the worst in Origin history.
So, anyone else south of the Tweed nervous as hell about tomorrow night’s outcome?
A win’s a win’s a win, especially in a series where for and against counts for naught, but last year’s shield was secured on the back of a sweeping backline movement from deep in NSW’s own half with less than a minute left to play in the final match.
The better team won, sure, but Queensland have a habit of proving themselves the more deserving team in the interstate series.
And the first two matches of 2020 have played out remarkably similar to last year.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
The underdog Queenslanders took an unexpected 18-14 win in Game 1 – we’re talking about 2019 and 2020 here, as the scoreline was the same in both.
The Blues then reminded everyone why they were favourites from the outset with a thrashing victory in Game 2 with the scoreboard that was, while not identical, at least dizygotic – 38-6 last year as opposed to 34-10 this.
So we come to Game 3.
Despite the Blues being unbackable favourites after the Perth shellacking and running out to a 20-8 lead by the hour mark, Queensland scored in the 71st and 76th minutes to tie the game at 20-all.
Mr Momentum had changed his address.
As the clock ticked over into the last 60 seconds NSW were pinned deep in their own half and you just knew a bit of ridiculous Origin magic was going to occur.
And it did. Except, going against the form guide for ridiculous Origin magic, NSW pulled the bunny from the hat. All they needed was James Tedesco, the best player in the world, to finish an insane team effort while playing on home turf in front of 82,565 parochial fans.
Again, a win’s a win and no-one cares whether it was decided by 50 and squared away by halftime or a freak try in the final 30 seconds – you either secure the spoils or you don’t.
But it’s a fool who doesn’t at least look at the circumstances that led to victory.
Based on recent history, we’re in for an absolute nail-biter tomorrow.
But based on Origin legend, it’ll be the home team raising their arms in victory and their middle fingers at the doubters come the full-time siren.
And they’ll have every right if they do the latter, because this Queensland side isn’t bad, just unproven.
As of Monday evening, the average age of the 17 named is 25.5, which doesn’t make them spring chickens, but they are young and it’s worth acknowledging the mean is pulled up by Jake Friend and Dunamis Lui, a pair of Origin rookies who are on the handsome, distinguished and far more intelligent side of 30.
Xavier Coates, Corey Allan, Jaydn Su’a, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and Harry Grant all look set for long and successful careers for their state, yet none had played Origin before this year, let alone celebrated their 24th birthday.
And this inexperience could prove their greatest weapon as they run into the Cauldron and, for the first time in their lives, experience the unparalleled roar that can only be produced by 52,000 fans with 104,000 heads.
If the home team can harness that energy, they will be far better placed to win the arm-wrestle than the away side.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
What’s more, while it might seem silly after only back-to-back series losses as opposed to the eight on the trot the Blues had to endure, there would be no fear of a blue jersey in these tyros – inexperience cuts both ways.
The comparisons to ‘Fatty’s Nevilles’ of 1995 have been made time and again, but these Cane Toads give me 2001 Knights vibes (I know, I know, me bringing it back to Newcastle, what a shock).
Heading into the 2001 grand final, Parramatta were the best attacking and defensive team in premiership history, with all evidence pointing to an easy Eels win – particularly given how green their opposition were.
I mean, who had heard of Newcastle youngsters the likes of Timana Tahu, Steve Simpson or Josh Perry?
These days we look back on that game and wonder how it was ever expected to be anything but a walk in the park for a Knights side littered with rep stars. But back then those big names were just big kids with big dreams.
And while hindsight is 20-20, I’ll offer some foresight in 2020: this Maroons side is stacked with players who will be mainstays of the Kangaroos for the next decade.
To say they’re the worst team in Queensland history is like telling a two-year-old he’ll never amount to anything. There are youngsters on deck who could form the nucleus of the next great Origin dynasty. They could be anything.
And it could all start as soon as tomorrow night.
The Blues are the bookies’ favourites ahead of the decider, and that’s fair enough, but this game is in no way a foregone conclusion.
Because this isn’t the worst team in Queensland’s history, this is the first team in Queensland’s future.
Rob
Guest
All good Aiden. Probably assumed incorrectly it was a Union is a superior game thing. Maybe league has a basketball, cricket or tennis type ethos. Where the game rules allows for a even balance of scoring opportunities.
Aiden
Guest
I genuinely was not arguing that one game is better than the other. I love both equally. And at this particular juncture, there are more skilled players in the NRL than in Aussie rugby. Obviously. But I was comparing League to any ball sport where there is a contest over the ball, AFL, soccer, basketball. I see the six tackle rule as a bit of a leveller compared to those sports. In soccer you probably see as many upsets due to the difficulty of scoring, a rubbish team can put 10 men behind the ball. Although on aggregate, its the same EPL teams in the Champions league most years. If you are starved of the ball it follows that you have less chance of getting up that a sport where you are not starved of the ball. To go back to rugby, at the tackle teams who can't compete at the breakdown get the ball turned over. So you see players make great breaks, and it comes to nothing, they are isolated, the ball is taken off them, and it's booted up field for a lineout that they are too useless to win. In League, a great player in an unfancied team can make a break, run into no man's land, and he retains the ball at the tackle ... close to the line, ready for a kick to the corners where often it's a 50/50. Still, I have not stats to back this up ... just my observation from watching a lot of sport.
Rob
Guest
Maybe NSW dropped the ball, missed tackles and executed Poorly in game 1. Maybe the opposite happened in game 2? Repeat sets is where many points come. Errors early in the set giving opportunities for opponents to attack. I was interpreting your comment as Rugby Union is a better game for rewarding skilled players. I think Australian Rugby to NZ rugby is an equivalent of comparing Australian soccer to Brazil. Queensland v NSW and the NRL is much more evenly contested. The reason the Storm is so successful is they consistently play at a higher skill level consistently IMO.
Aiden
Guest
It’s not the only factor, absolutely. I didn’t say it was. I just believe that the rules make upsets more achievable. We see it in the NRL a lot. You don’t see it in super rugby, Australian teams finding it very hard to get over Kiwi ones as they are simply not as good, no matter the passion. They don’t have the skill. In league, sure the best team normally wins as well, but if you factor in the crowd etc, and give that unfancied player the ball every six tackles, he’s got a shot.
Nat
Roar Rookie
Facts?!?! Put me on a lie detector, I will Costanza that thing in a heart beat.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Great debate fellas...sums up what Origin is all about Fact based objective NSWmen and rabidly one-eyed Queenslanders :silly: :silly: :silly:
Nat
Roar Rookie
Anyone can use stats to prove a case. :silly: They both have individual values so different it's hard to compare. Haas is a great truck where Welsh is the 4t flatbed. I prefer Welsh for the effort areas off the ball. He was missed in G2 and watch the difference in this one. Frizell? Come on... You'd have to cherry pick moments from the last 2yrs to find a decent argument. At the very least he'll make sure a Qld run away try stays as wide as possible.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Woah..superior in every other area ? Please dont go to the stat board, Welch gets hit out of the park in every single column bar offloads..and missed tackles where he wins the latter with 2.5 times more.. What's more important for a prop than post contacts, where again Haas has 50% more over the season..all the whilst battling it out on the wooden spoon struggle street.. you've Benedict Arnoled your own club. Back row..seriously when was the last time Felice played like the international he is 2 games in a row ? The only time hes taken one for the team all series was risking suspension by putting Boyd Cordener out with that surreptitious cocked elbow to the temple. Best memory of Su'ua is him getting put through a hole by Cherry then, alas, throwing the ball over the sideline.. Frizell's very recent on line defence,on the other hand, has been a thing of beauty
MickDonovan
Roar Rookie
I think it's the Queenslaners that underestimate the Blues, two years in a row they could have put the series away two years in a row NSW have come back and smashed them in game 2, the Blues are no longer the easy beats.
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
That's fake news!
Rellum
Roar Guru
That is pretty close for the worse QLD team ever
Max power
Guest
It’s a long now to suggest that these fringe NRL players will become origin greats Corey Allen , nah
Nat
Roar Rookie
"middle aged men with a few to many under the belt" That is the Qld crowd! :laughing:
Nat
Roar Rookie
Welsh doesn't get the metres of Haas, nor the game time but superior in every other area. Either backrower over Frizell. Damn you Jurbo...
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Superior Qld forwards ? You mean on paper ? Other than Papalli over Safitti..who's superior than their Blue counterpart ?
The Sporacle
Roar Rookie
There's a special sense of confidence that consumes me around origin, most commonly displayed by middle aged men with a few to many under the belt :stoked:
andrew
Roar Rookie
Is DCE going to take on Payne Haas for Tino? I think not. Don't want you getting sent off DCE for dropping Payne with one of your ramrod left jabs.
Chris
Roar Pro
As long as people click, he'll be in a job. Sadly this means he will be around for a while.
Big Mig
Roar Rookie
That comment by Gal is somewhat disrespectful to the current Maroons team but in a ‘stirring’ way, no one else but Gal could get away with it. You wouldn’t expect him to say anything else, such is the rivalry. It’s great for the game’s build up, and I am sure the master coach Bennett will use it good effect. They may be the “worst team” but they have the aura and the best coach-combination that the NRL could offer for a game like this – Bennett/Meninga. It just adds to the excitement and rivalry. It might be a classic case of “poking the bear‘ in this case the bear may well be Big Papa, Big Tino and Christian Welch, supported by a hungry pack of wolves like Dane Gagai, Cameron Munster and Daly Cherry-Evans.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Who knows exactly but I think that’s far more likely. The convo looked far more like “good job, kid” than laying down the law I can’t imagine a Qld skipper giving a forward a bake for serving it up to an opponent