When you think of the coaches under pressure this coming NRL season, it seems silly to even mention the man who took the Panthers to the grand final a few short months ago.
Ivan Cleary had a marvellous 2020 all things considered, leading his team to the minor premiership and ultimately losing the decider by just six points.
What’s more, with Phil Gould having long departed the foot of the mountains, the Panthers are very much Ivan’s team.
So obviously Cleary is not under pressure to retain his job – it would take a spectacular, Broncos-esque failure of a season for the brass at Penrith to even contemplate replacing their coach, especially considering his son is their star player and Ivan has only just completed the second year of a five-year deal.
However, Cleary must be starting to feel the pressure to finally convert a great team into one that actually wins a premiership.
Because after 14 seasons as a head coach in five stints at four different clubs, while he has led a team to the big dance on two occasions – with the Warriors in 2011 and last year with Penrith – the ultimate victory still eludes Cleary.
That he hasn’t won a comp doesn’t necessarily make him an outlier. In fact, of the active NRL coaches, only six – Wayne Bennett, Craig Bellamy, Trent Robinson, Michael Maguire, Ricky Stuart and Des Hasler – have premiership rings as head coaches, so the majority are in the same boat as Cleary.
However, none of the rest of these current coaches have anywhere near his amount of experience.
According to the Rugby League Project, Cleary’s 342 games has him 13th on the all-time list of 305 coaches – and he’s due to rise to 12th, above Frank Stanton, in Round 2 of this year.
Ivan Cleary. (Photo: Renee McKay/Getty Images)
However, only one man has coached more games than Cleary without winning a title: perennial bridesmaid Brian Smith.
Furthermore, Cleary is the only coach in the game’s 20 most experienced to have won fewer games than he’s lost, with a winning percentage of 49.7.
Now, as I said at the top, Cleary is under virtually no threat of being sacked this year, however I wonder what the board would make of another season without a title.
Aside from the fact the Panthers are the bookies’ favourite to raise the Provan-Summons Trophy, so anything less would have to be considered a failure, starting 2022 without that piece of silverware in the cabinet would see the team’s premiership window close ever so slightly further.
They may be a team with plenty of upside, but Penrith’s crop of young stars are already being picked off by rival clubs and offers from the likes of the Roosters can be hard to turn down when Nick Politis can offer both great coin and a realistic shot at the grand final year after year.
By comparison, if Penrith go are not the winners on the first weekend of October 2021, you couldn’t blame some players for wondering if their best hopes of tasting glory lie at a different club.
Or simply under a different coach.
After almost 350 games holding a clipboard, Cleary is the definition of a career coach, however as I see it, there are two kinds of career coaches: those who win titles and those who are called in to oversee rebuilds.
That Cleary can only wear a wedding band on his fingers, as well as his underwhelming victory percentage – a reflection of having coached average teams, rather than of being an average coach – have him firmly in the latter camp.
And no one would be more aware of this than Ivan himself.
Penrith will not have an easy run of it in 2021, as no opponent will take them lightly. But they have arguably the hottest young roster in the comp, the experience of a largely successful finals campaign and the hunger that comes from losing a grand final.
They are the justifiable favourites to win the title.
Which means this is the best chance Ivan Cleary has to finally get the monkey off his back and stamp himself as a coach who wins comps, not just a coach who’s competent.
mushi
Roar Guru
No one has blind loyalty in sport except fans
Ivan does not show loyalty...he is happy to take a dollar more for a move to another club. He has walked on deals with 2 clubs so far and been sacked by a 3rd.....Players want loyalty and it aint I Cleary
mushi
Roar Guru
I must admit I do find it very odd the way we judge coaches. We all have a level of understanding of the on the field because we've seen thousands of hours of it - but we judge coaching without ever really getting genuine exposure to top level coaching. Winning a grand final is the outcome of a process which is highly variable. If someone is a 3-1 favourite against every other elite team they'll still not win the GF more often than they do. If a coach can suddenly make his team better, then he's been doing the wrong job up until that point unless second gear is a 200+ F/A guaranteed top 4 going against clubs in top gear.
Big Mig
Roar Rookie
Fair point, for only the sombrero's could entice Nathan with such a (under the salary cap) lucrative sum.
Kent Dorfman
Roar Rookie
premiership ring - what a wank do we have to copy the Yanks in everything?
mushi
Roar Guru
Quick read had 10 losers by more than 12 pts. Most are second 4 versus top 4 with really poor FA or lightning in a bottle teams that we get excited about (I wrote an article post the roosters loss to STG and needing to be very cautious of "hey we made the grand final optimism") Those that weren't were Manly Storm and Warriors teams of which only the Warriors didn't keep the core together for a GF win. So 3/4 thumped top sides went on to get the silver ware eventually (though the sample size is too small to tell you anything) The warriors are the real head scratcher they posted F/A of 234 and 111 in 02 and 11. Even the 2011 number is a continual solid top 4 contender number. Then they fell off a cliff to 35 and -112 the next year mediocre to terrible team numbers, I know they are the benchmark for inconsistency but gee. But in summary - no evidence to suggest the GF result kills your team just that FA is probably a better long term projection than finals position
Chris.P.Bacon
Guest
Nat, whenever I reference the Bulldogs the word 'mighty' - if not used - is always implied! (....but yeah, that wasn't one of our better days! :stoked: :boxing: )
souvalis
Roar Rookie
I said it was ' a game of centimetres' which you've twisted into ''should be premiers'.. guess they're synonymous in some part of the universe. Can you give me a reference for a direct quote from Annesley on that 'acknowledgement'..
The Mexican
Roar Rookie
How about the refs boss & the NRL, Don’t they know the rules?. They also agreed it was the wrong call. Anyway in your world Penrith are the 2020 Premiers :stoked: :laughing:
Albo
Roar Rookie
I find it hilarious that Trent Barrett was so scorned and eventually tossed out of Manly as being the worst coach ever in 2018, and is now being hailed by some here as the real reason for the great Panthers 2020 performance ?? And now without Barrett being there in 2021, it seems the Panthers will now be missing the 8 ? :laughing:
Cyril Snodgrass III
Guest
Unfortunately Ivan blew his GF chance...the same way Ricky Stuart blew it in 2003,2004 and 2019 Premiership opportunities come once in a blue moon for most teams....could be a long time for the Penny Panthers to get another chance
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
I don’t like Cleary’s chances this year. Some disharmony? with regulars pushed out and others on the way, opposition knowing their game better and no Barrett. Penrith, thought they did well, seem very predicable. A lot of get close and kick. They’ll be out of the top 4 in 2021, likely 5 and no banana.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
The callers making the most noise against that try are Joey and ......Gus. Neither have more than a workingmans knowledge of the rules.
ThighSlappinBalls
Roar Rookie
I reckon Storm will do it this year I think Panthers will be up there no doubt
Succhi
Roar Rookie
Nice article again Joe - thanks. A really interesting scenario this year with coaches - some old dogs, some reinvented ones and some rookies. For Cleary to be a coach that consistently makes the top 4, but not win a premiership, won’t be enough. An the added pressure of your son in the team, being the playmaker, goal kicker and maybe captain?
The Mexican
Roar Rookie
The only people who believe that try was genuine are Phill Gould & most Penrith supporters, everyone else's agrees it was a "gift" from the bunker, watch the reply & listen to the game commentators with the exception of Phill Gould. Even the NRL acknowledged that the bunker got it wrong but in your mind Penrith won the Grand Final :happy: :stoked: :laughing:
JOHN ALLAN
Guest
I recall that when Penrith were down by about 20, Phil Gould stated Panthers were the better side. Apparently his megalomaniac mate in the USA tweeted Phil & said it was “a fake score”.
Nat
Roar Guru
Miss the 8? It won't be a smooth next season but to drop to also-rans is a big call.
Nat
Roar Guru
42 - 0 still the "mighty" :laughing: :thumbup: :thumbup:
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Oh, all right, 8 point opportunity. ‘Gifted’...yeah, ri....ght..