It is amazing how many popular misconceptions can arise in regard to NRL teams in such a sort period of time when things aren’t exactly going to plan.
Already this season there has been a number of widely held views that have been presented as fact that are just patently wrong.
Let’s address a number of them before they can gather any more momentum.
1. Todd Payten can’t coach
After losing the first four matches by a combined score of 141 to 36 – an average loss of 35-9 – the knives were already out for Payten.
That was in spite of him taking over a Warriors side in Round 7 of 2020 and getting them to a tenth-place finish.
The team faced challenges such as being stuck in Australia and unable to play at home, having to borrow players from other clubs, losing a number of players who went home to their families and not having a great roster to start with.
They had every excuse to come last, yet under Payten’s leadership they notably improved across the board. The Warriors became a committed and dedicated side who made no excuses. There was very little doubt as to why.
Yet some people were questioning his tenure at the Cowboys come the end of Round 4 2021. There were rumblings from the players and Jason Taumalolo was out injured.
The wheels were off and maybe Payten didn’t have the dressing room.
Todd Payten (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Three straight wins later and how different things look. While their average score of a 30-24 win does point to some defensive issues, clearly something has started to click.
Three of their biggest names took no part in those wins either. Taumalolo was still injured, Michael Morgan retired and Josh McGuire was moved on.
Perhaps the improvement is due to the Cowboys players buying in to Payten and his methods. If they continue to then who knows what they can do, especially now with Taumalolo returning from injury.
Unless the results are diabolical going forward, it is time to put to bed the concept that Todd Payten can’t coach.
2. One player won’t make that much difference to Manly’s fortunes
Guilty as charged on this one. I thought that the Sea Eagles were going so badly that even the return of Tom Trbojevic wouldn’t really improve their fortunes.
Wrong!
While one man doesn’t make a team, he clearly makes a team a completely different beast.
Tommy Turbo has had a bad run with injuries over the last three seasons. That has limited him to just 21 games played.
Tom Trbojevic (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
When the middle child of John and Melissa has taken the field for his beloved Sea Eagles since Round 1 2019 they have boasted a 76 per cent win rate. Over the same period Manly only have a 47 per cent win rate overall, and without Tom Trbojevic the Sea Eagles win rate for that period plummets to 26.7 per cent.
Since Round 1 2019 to the end of Round 7 2021 the Sea Eagles average score per game is a 18.1-20.5 point loss. When Tom Trbojevic plays that average score over the same period is a 23.3-15.3 win.
Put simply, Manly is on average a ten point a match better team when he plays and win over 50 per cent more matches.
I think we can safely say that Tom Trbojevic’s impact on the Sea Eagles fortunes is immense.
3. Michael Maguire needs to be moved on at the Wests Tigers
It seems to be the flavour of the week to absolutely sink the slipper into the Wests Tigers. Once again we are all analysing all of the players they have ‘let go’ and how they are such a basket case.
Sure, sitting on one win from seven games to start 2021 is far from ideal. As well, there have been some diabolical hammerings handed out to them, right?
Well, actually their 40-6 Round 7 loss to Manly and their 40-6 loss to the Roosters in Round 2 have been their only two uncompetitive matches.
Sure, they haven’t looked like world beaters in the other four losses, but they weren’t that bad.
Yet all of a sudden the knives are out for coach Michael Maguire. The absolute worst thing the Campbelltown-based joint venture club could do right now is scapegoat their coach when it is so clear that their issues run so much deeper.
It has not been since 2011 that the Wests Tigers made the NRL finals. That’s almost a decade of football without September action.
You can stand back and say that’s all about poor management and poor coaching but you’d be wrong. The Wests Tigers haven’t really had a chance.
Their best players have been poached and they’ve been unable to attract and retain a good roster. While the management must take some blame for this, there have been destabilising players and the lure of huge money contracts as well.
Madge is just the bloke holding the baby right now. And his results aren’t any worse than they ever have been.
Since the start of the 2012 season to the end of Round 7 2021 the Wests Tigers have a 38.8 winning percentage, with an average game score of 18.8-24.1.
Maguire’s tenure has a 37.8 per cent win rate with a 20.2-23.7 average game score. While those numbers aren’t stellar, they also show that he isn’t the problem.
This talk that he’s ‘too intense’ is some of the biggest horseshit I’ve ever heard. The only relaxed coach I’ve ever seen is the one who just had Gatorade poured on him following a grand final triumph. And that relaxed demeanour doesn’t last long.
If Madge is intense it is because he has to be. He’s got one of the hardest jobs in the game. He needs total backing of the club and its supporters so a long term plan can be put in place.
Anything else is just changing deck chairs on the Titanic.
4. The Canberra Raiders’ attack is broken
This has not been an ideal start for the Canberra Raiders. Somehow still in the top eight after three straight losses, things don’t look to be running smoothly down in the nation’s capital.
There has been a bit of misfortune involved, with the loss of three players early in the game against the Warriors seeing them over run in the final moments.
Further, the loss of their fullback and resultant backline reshuffle against the rampant Panthers was not ideal.
However, the consecutive losses to the Eels and then the Cowboys were quite concerning, with the previously imposing Raiders looking less than cohesive or determined.
A lot of the discussion that has come out about what is going wrong has centred around their attack being broken. One common theory was that the Raiders hooker and captain Josh Hodgson overplaying his hand and not giving early ball to his halves.
That was causing the attack to stutter and not be able to score the necessary points to win.
This is utter tripe.
Josh Hodgson – he’s good. (Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
Ok, back in 2016 the Raiders made the preliminary final and were a fantastic attacking side, averaging 28.6 scored a game.
However, that prowess really dropped off in 2017 and 2018 where their average points scored a game dropped to 23 and they failed to make the finals.
The real problem was that, although they were still scoring lots of points, they were conceding almost as many. In each of those two failed seasons they lost eight games by six points or less. It was telling.
In 2019 there was a clear change in approach: defence first. In the last two seasons the Raiders’ average points scored a game has actually dropped to 22.
However, they’ve averaged just 15.5 points conceded a game. The result: a preliminary final appearance and a grand final appearance.
So far in 2021 the Raiders attack is slightly down on average at 19.6. However, their average points conceded has sky rocketed six points a game to 21.6.
While the results against the Panthers and the Eels would not be reversed if six fewer points had been conceded, the Warriors and Cowboys games become wins and the Raiders are sitting on five wins and two losses. And nobody is sounding the alarm at all.
The Raiders need to get back to basics and return to their miserly and committed defence and the ship should right itself.
And to all of those people sprouting that the root of the Raiders woes are to be found in a misfiring attack and that actions such as Josh Hodgson being dropped are the remedy, thanks for your advice.
It has been filed appropriately.
Taree Raider
Guest
Rob, I agree with you 100%. The facts are that the Raiders of 2016 were the most unpredictable team in the competition. They would score points at will, it didn't matter if they scored 16 points in a row & then conceded 18, they would keep on with their unpredictable attack & outscore the opposition. It was great to watch, impossible to defend against & only for a dropped ball in the corner in the preliminary final, they would have made the big dance & unpredictably won it. In 2021, the Storm & to some extent the Panthers & Roosters have copied the 2016 Raiders model. The 6 again rule is gold to the teams which the Ref's subconsciously favour, it increased fatigue & the pointscore. Ricky Stuart is obviously a decent person, but his loyalty to certain players is to a fault. I have banged on and on about it but it can't be ignored. Being from Taree, I well remember when Mitchell Barnett was starting out in the NRL with the Raiders, at the same time Luke Bateman was of the same ilk. Ricky loved Bateman and although Barnett was the better option he was often overlooked for Bateman. Barnett asked for an early release and went to the Knights and hasn't looked back, their best and fairest last year. Luke Bateman, he stayed a favourite but didn't cut the mustard and returned home to rural Queensland. The latest favourite is Hudson Young. Reasonable back up player at most, but Ricky see's something that the opposition attack doesn't. He's used as a speed hump, he just isn't that good. Compare Harawira Naera or Corey Horsburgh to him its a no brainer. They are just much better players. Put it another way, if the three of them were on the open market, which team would want Hudson Young? What has Dunamis Lui done wrong. You know, the bloke who played the house down in the State of Origin for QLD last year. I checked the injured list, he's not there. Emre Guler is taking Lui's spot, Guler is another obvious favourite. Is he any better than Lui? I think not, but he's a favourite. Jarrod Croker, the second favourite after Jack Wighton in Ricky's eye's. Who in the hell would sign Croker until the end of 2024? Was there any chance of him moving anywhere else, he comes from Goulburn after all. When he was signed on the long term deal I was shocked. Jarrod doesn't cut it anymore in there NRL, he can't tackle to save himself, he's too slow and totally stifles the attack. I can only hope that his shoulder injury is bad enough to allow early retirement for his sake. Sebastian Kris deserves his spot in the centres. Curtis Scott, hasn't struck a blow since Ricky signed him, no good, but Ricky signed him, probably on big money so he keeps picking him to show that he was right. Give Mathew Timoko a go please. While we are at it, give Ricky a 'token' coaching director job. Don't let him have anything to do with recruitment or retainment. Ricky was ahead of his time in 2016, he's gone backwards ever since and so have the Raiders.
mushi
Roar Guru
The raider issue is both sides of the ball. The average for the league is up around 1 pt per game in attack so that means their scoring is really ~3.5 pts worse off versus competition which is a big move
greg parker
Roar Rookie
"Yet all of a sudden the knives are out for coach Michael Maguire… I think the absolute worst thing the Campbelltown-based joint venture club could do right now is scapegoat their coach when it is so clear that their issues run so much deeper." Mr. Gore, you're the preppy dude who called Tommy R a "thug"? You should look words up before (mis)using them. Now you claim WT are based in Campbelltown? Oh the irony - because NOT being based in Campbelltown is the very reason they are crap. Every other team has a home base - a community they belong to. But not this rabble. They have 4 home bases and and no community. Give the Macarthur region a team that actually wants to be there (in complete contrast to this rabble), and provide a simple but comprehensive juniors pathway and you would start to see success. 2005 was an anomaly brought about because at that time, there were in fact still ties to the south west via Sheens and a number of the players. Since then, all we have seen is the freezing out of the Magpie and the embrace of all things Tigger and Campbelltown left to the AFL and A League to share the spoils. In the meantime, it won't matter who the coach or what players they buy. Nothing will fix the dysfunction until they plant roots in one spot. If you agree, please add your name to the petition https://secure.avaaz.org/community_petitions/en/Rick_Wayde_Bring_Back_the_Magpies_to_the_NRL/?preview=live
zonecadet
Roar Rookie
Agreed Barry, Top Six, Bottom Six and the 4 Floaters in the middle that can go either way. The Dragons win over the Eels is the only Bottom Six team from 2020 who've beaten a Top six from 2020.
Short Memory
Guest
100% right about Maguire. He inherited a basket case roster courtesy of Ivan Cleary. While Cleary inherited a solid gold roster courtesy of Gus, Hook and Ciro.
The Barry
Roar Guru
It’s pointless continuing when you don’t even know what you’re being bagged for... You weren’t bagged because you said captains challenge would be introduced... EVERYONE could see the writing on the wall that it would be. The debate was whether it would be the answer to stopping howlers. Which you insisted it would be. Which it absolutely hasn’t. And that it would be a waste of time that would be manipulated by coaches. Which it has. And it has. Forget all the historical stuff, half of which you’re making up after the fact and the other half is blindingly obvious. It’s not the issue and you’ve introduced it to cloud the fact you’re exposed on the issue of this season being predictable Despite the FACT there’s only been seven genuine upsets (at best) in seven rounds of footy. Despite the FACT that there’s only been one game where ANY team outside the top five has managed to beat ANY team in the top five. Despite the FACT that zero bottom four teams have beaten top five teams. Despite the FACT that these are (even from your own research) massive outliers compared to previous seasons, you’re claiming this season is unpredictable because I tipped the Dragons for the wooden spoon... It’s all well and good saying wait and see, wait and see, wait and see. I agree. But this season up until this point in time has been unequivocally predictable... I haven’t backed away from any of my predictions. Remember of course that the predictions I made were in Ryan O’Connell’s fearless predictions article and are meant to be bold calls Pretty sure I tipped there would be less than two 2 point field goals across the season. WOOOOOWWWWW!!!! I got that one wrong, what a wild, crazy unpredictable roller coaster of a season it’s been...
Emcie
Roar Guru
Oi! Although, looking at the last 2 seasons it would appear that McCullough is the most important player ever! 100% win rate starting 2020, leaves and the teams only won 2 games since...
King in the north
Roar Rookie
Only marginally worse than their record with Locker on the board :laughing:
Emcie
Roar Guru
Pretty sure the Broncos had a 0% win record without Lockyer for a season or two
The Barry
Roar Guru
You keep saying top 4 v bottom 4 (we’re on zero after a third of the season) But I’m talking about top 5 v EVERYONE ELSE It’s ONE WIN after eight rounds. Even pro-rated that’s waaaaaay less than the top 4 v bottom 4 of previous seasons… Didn’t Sharks finish third and win the comp in 2016…?
JOHN ALLAN
Guest
Good afternoon. Successful coaches never seem to lose the dressing room. The word “respect” comes to mind. I recall after a loss, Seibold was addressing the Broncos players in the dressing room & a few were on their phones. Somehow I don’t think that would be a good career move if the speaker was someone like Bellamy, Robinson, Bennett or Jack Gibson.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Interesting comparison between Hodgson and Munster Joe - both very good players but occasionally they try to be a bit too clever and as a result confuse everyone around them. I've heard Storm supporters being frustrated with Munster at times - even when they've been on top in a match. Not sure if its ego or an occasional brain snap. This is what separates out the greats such as Cameron Smith - who didn't second guess himself - from the next level of good players. He went with his initial instinct which more often than not was the best option. Mind you Smith was exceptional at anticipating what was going to happen two or three plays ahead - like any very good chess player would.
The Barry
Roar Guru
A prediction is something you make in advance not 6-12 months later with a heading “I’ve been saying for ages…” Just because you convince yourself doesn’t mean it’s true As for your predictions You said captains challenge would resolve the howler. It doesn’t and it wastes time Show a little evidence that you predicted the six again rule - eg Rellum wrote an article about it It’s sped the game up but it hasn’t been the answer to wrestling - PTB speeds are actually slower… Turbo and Wighton. Good call, although Wighton has had one good series and one dud at centre… so half a good call You predicted grand final experience would be a big concern for a team playing in its first grand final for almost 20 years versus a team playing its 4th in 5 years - wow! Thanks Nostradamus Putting forward technology that doesn’t exist year on year on year as an answer to forward passes I predicted that flying cars will be the answer to Sydney’s traffic problems Why did you stop with micro chips in balls? What about a rugby league robot with GPS positioning and lasers So once the NRL had a plan in place to re-start you “predicted” it was on the right track All of that is cool but yet again as soon as a bit of data is produced highlighting how predictable this whole season has been, you wander off into the weeds of how all “the punters” in “the mob” are picking on you….
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
I had a look the other day and based on the top and bottom 4 at the end of the season in 2018 it was 3 wins by the bottom 4 , 2017 it was 5 wins by the bottom 4 and 2015 it was 5 wins by the bottom 4 against the top 4. I avoided 2016 because I think the Sharks were docked points and the bottom 4 wasn't accurate. I'm expecting some bottom 4 teams to beat top 4 teams this season but I'm happy to wait for the season to play out.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
Ironic how you claim I don't make any predictions so I can be wise after the event when I regularly make predictions and you bag the hell out of them. I was certain the Captains Challenge would be introduced and was bagged for it. I proposed the six again rule and predicted it was the answer to the ruck issues well before it was proposed. I predicted that V'landys was on the right track with the Covid thing and was bagged for it. You predicted last season that it wouldn't really count and would have an asterisk on it. I predicted you were wrong , once again before the event not in hindsight as you claim. I predicted all along that this season would be unpredictable and you claim it would be easily predicted. Good luck if you don't think you are now cherry picking and claiming you are correct a third of the way thru the season. Maybe you should wait a while? I'm not going to bore you with all my other predictions but it's better that you don't make false claims. I don't waste my time predicting premiers , top 8's , spoons and origin very much because I claim to not be able to predict them accurately enough to bother. I'm happy to read others opinions but history has shown them to be unreliable and that to me is a good thing. The only reason I mentioned your predictions is you are claiming the season is so predictable and now you are distancing yourself from some of those predictions. I thought Saints would win the spoon and their position on the table shows once again that I and others can't predict the NRL ladder accurately. At least I'm honest about it. As for commenting in hindsight , I've seen plenty of punters get defensive when they declare certainties about all sorts of things , often in an insulting way , and then get offended when you hold them to account. If these punters insult someone like V'landys in a personal manner , I make no apologies for telling them to have a wander in to the house of mirrors. I don't post by your imaginary rules and never will.. Feel free to keep on bagging the calls I apparently don't make , it's a good thing.
Rob
Guest
CNK not due back for another 5-6 weeks.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
So my usual trick is not making a call on anything and the only reason I would do that is so I can wait and see how things pan out and appear wise in hindsight? That sounds great in theory but it's nonsense. I was Bagged for declaring the Captains Challenge would be introduced. I proposed the six again rule way before it was introduced and predicted it was the answer to wrestling. I claimed that selecting Turbo and Wighton in the centres together for the first time would be a strength and not the possible disaster it was claimed. I claimed that the Panthers main problem last season in the GF would be inexperience which many claimed wasn't correct. I was bagged for declaring technology would be the answer to forward passes , once again it drew a few giggles , funny how the NRL are talking about introducing it now. I claimed the NRL were on the right track by starting the game again and predicted they would start the game again as claimed , once again may punters gave me curry over that. I could go on but no doubt you have no interest because it doesn't suit your agenda , which is to prove how smart you are. Most posters have admitted that they have been surprised that the NRL season has become unpredictable. I went against the grain and claimed that the season would become unpredictable. I'd be a fool to then come out and declare that I know what's going to happen as you think I should. You predicted last season that it would be tarnished and would have an asterisk over it. I predicted it wouldn't. You predicted that this season would be predictable and I claimed it wouldn't. I predicted that several players wouldn't do well and I was wrong about some of them. I also said I would be wrong about some of them.
The Barry
Roar Guru
As for the top 5 losing to other teams, I just went back five years Storm (1st) lost to Bulldogs (7) and Dragons (11) Raiders (2nd) lost Titans (8) Eels (14) Panthers (6) Dragons (11) Sharks (3rd) lost to manly (13) dragons (11) Souths (12) Cowboys (4th) lost to Eels (14) Dragons (11) Tigers (9) Roosters (15) Broncos (5th) lost to Panthers (6) Tigers (9) Warriors (10) Roosters (15) The ones in bold happened before round 8…
Nick Maguire
Roar Rookie
TG, the red headed one? Cheers,
matth
Roar Guru
Joey Johns certainly had that effect at Newcastle.