It’s not even Round 10 yet but already we are down to only five contenders, and of those there are two clear frontrunners: the Storm and the Panthers.
With 15 home-and-away games yet to be played, you can put a line through 11 teams.
All the teams that aren’t the Panthers, Storm, Eels, Rabbitohs and Roosters have only a Cinderella chance of winning the 2021 NRL premiership.
And Cinderella stories can happen. The 2005 Wests Tigers are the ultimate statistical outliers. They ticked almost none of the required boxes.
They hadn’t played finals the previous season.
They hadn’t played in a preliminary or grand final in the previous five seasons.
They weren’t in the top eight by the end of Round 10.
The only statistical box they did tick was that they managed – on points differential – to finish the home-and-away season in fourth place.
As we know, no side in the NRL era has ever won the premiership from outside the top four. In fact only the sixth-placed Bulldogs in 1995 have ever achieved that feat.
The Wests Tigers had to win 15 of their 20 remaining matches to lift that trophy. This season the five sides on eight points now require 11 wins from their final 15 games to get to the 32-point haul the Wests Tigers achieved in 2005.
So don’t completely give up hope, but taking holidays in late September and early October shouldn’t be a problem.
I’m writing off every team from the Dragons down.
Taking out those 11 teams is also supported by a very compelling set of statistics, being the results of every NRL premier since 1998 after Round 9.
| Season | Premier | Record after Round 9 | Ladder position after Round 9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Storm | 7-2 | 3rd |
| 2019 | Roosters | 8-1 | 1st |
| 2018 | Roosters (*Dragons 8-1) | 5-4 | 6th |
| 2017 | Storm | 8-1 | 1st |
| 2016 | Sharks | 7-2 | 4th |
| 2015 | Cowboys | 6-3 | 4th |
| 2014 | Rabbitohs (*Bulldogs 7-2) | 5-4 | 5th |
| 2013 | Roosters (*Rabbitohs 8-1) | 7-2 | 2nd |
| 2012 | Storm | 9-0 | 1st |
| 2011 | Sea Eagles (*Dragons 8-1) | 6-3 | 4th |
| 2010 | Dragons | 7-2 | 1st |
| 2009 | Storm (*Bulldogs 7-2) | 5-4 | 6th |
| 2008 | Sea Eagles (*Storm 7-2) | 6-3 | 4th |
| 2007 | Storm | 8-1 | 2nd |
| 2006 | Broncos (*Storm 7-2) | 5-4 | 5th |
| 2005 | Wests Tigers (*Broncos 7-2) | 4-5 | 13th |
| 2004 | Bulldogs (*Roosters 8-1) | 7-2 | 3rd |
| 2003 | Panthers (*Raiders 8-1) | 6-3 | 7th |
| 2002 | Roosters (*Broncos 8-1-0) | 5-4 | 6th |
| 2001 | Knights | 6-1-2 | 1st |
| 2000 | Broncos | 7-1-1 | 1st |
| 1999 | Storm (*Sharks 8-1) | 6-3 | 4th |
| 1998 | Broncos | 7-2 | 1st |
* An asterisk denotes a side with a better record than the eventual premiers after nine rounds.
What this table shows is that 17 out of 23 premiers had at least six wins by the end of Round 9. All but one of the 23 premiers had a positive win rate, 21 were in the top six and 16 were already in the top four.
The great Wests Tigers outlier constitutes just four per cent of the NRL premiers. That is one in 25.
So basically only the Panthers, Storm, Eels, Roosters and Rabbitohs have a realistic chance now.
Three of those sides are in more tenuous positions.
I still think that the Rabbitohs are a chance. While the stat of 50 points conceded is a powerful one, if you take any side’s top three players out of any game, they are likely to struggle. I’d argue that if Cam Murray, Adam Reynolds and Latrell Mitchell play against the Storm, there is no way the Cardinal and Myrtle concede anywhere near 50 points. However, I don’t think the Redfern side is quite of the same calibre as the two standout contenders.
Then there are the Eels. Yes, sure, this side looks really good. I think they are the best Parramatta side we’ve seen since 2005. However, they haven’t played in either a preliminary or grand final in the last five years, and those two statistical categories are essential for premiership glory when you are up against other teams who have done both, which is all of the other four contenders.
Last week I put the kiss of death on the Roosters after they suffered a hard loss to the Eels and a few more injuries they could just not afford. While their ladder position is good and I believe they will make the finals, I can’t see how they’ll seriously challenge.
So either the Penrith Panthers or the Melbourne Storm will be the 2021 premiers.
Both have brilliant win rates and are in the top four. Both have played in preliminary and grand finals recently. While the stats show that eight times the competition leaders after Round 9 have fallen over and not even made the decider, does anyone really get that vibe about the Storm and the Panthers? I don’t think so.
In the 23 years of the NRL only two sides have been undefeated after nine rounds. The first was the 2012 Melbourne Storm, who subsequently went on to win the premiership. The second is the 2021 Penrith Panthers.
Further, the Sydney Roosters were the first back-to-back premiers in 26 seasons. That weighs almost as heavily as the 50-points-conceded statistic and the top-four statistic.
So I’ll go one step further and say that the Panthers will be the 2021 premiers.
Zavjalova
Roar Rookie
The mighty titans will do a 2009 parra then beat the panthers in the gf. You watch!
Joey
Guest
... 1st time that the top5 after 10 rounds, have more wins than the other 11.
Joey
Guest
Hey Tim, here’s a stat that confirms your suspicion. The top 5 teams have won a combined 42 games ( a combined average of 8.4 / 10 ), while the 11 other teams have won a total of 38. Have trawled through history and next best games won by top5 after 10 rounds is 37. There’s never been a more top heavy comp in history.
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
Hi Ben. Do you think that slide would be from mostly players leaving or form dropping?
Rossi
Roar Rookie
That's incredible they finished 3rd whilst conceding so many points, must've had a hell of an attack! I just remember them being awful, then they started coming good culminating in a close preliminary final loss to Sydney City, from them on they were pretty good. They've certainly outdone the three teams they came in with anyhow.
Ben Lewis
Roar Pro
I certainly wouldn’t mind a fourth game on Grand Final day; and it would make a nice opener before the State Championship and NRLW Grand Final. Let’s up the ante; loser gets relegated to the NSW/QLD Cup and the winner of the State Championship takes their place :silly: (let’s just ignore the logistical nightmares that would cause :laughing: )
The Barry
Roar Guru
If course who gets injuries and when is a factor But that’s the same for every team - the Storm and Panthers are at no more risk of that than any other team You may as well say “I’m not tipping the Panthers because their bus may crash on the way to the ground “ “Hughes, Papenhuyzen, Munster and Grant may get simultaneously hit by lightening” Everyone judges what they expect to happen based on how things are going now. Everyone knows random events may happen that upsets that but how many asterisks can we put after our tips “I think Manly will win unless the Broncos fire up and shut Turbo down and defend heaps better”
Eelsalmighty
Roar Rookie
I'd argue far more so for the Bunnies than Parra (head and heart re Parra). Assuming Parra re -sign our core off contract this year players, which is looking likely, then I'd argue we are still developing. (D) Brown, Kaufusi, Niukore, (a much improved) Papali'i alongside "optimal aged/experienced" players like Gutho, Moses, Matterson etc etc etc. Add to that the options/value we're getting out of (almost) last chance players we've given a new life/hope to, and I'd argue we are closer to nearer the peak (whatever that may be) than the downside, but admit it's (the peak) nearing. I'm a huge fan of BA, and have been even through (maybe even more so) our recent dark days, but even I was questioning our 2021 recruitment. I still can't believe the bench we're running, but it's working. I thought our starting middle forwards are amongst the best pack getting around (and they are), but when RCG, Paulo, Brown are off (both sides of half time) we lacked depth/experience (and nothing against any particular player taking over) but we'd be vonerable, but it's working. I think we're looking very strong for the next few years
The Barry
Roar Guru
Let’s not forget earlier this year when FT was bagging fans and teams for calling for / selecting young players when experience was needed Then less than four weeks later bagging clubs and fans for persisting with old players when youth was the answer Rock solid Been sayin it for ages…
Joey
Guest
Yes jimmmy, it’s another rule. To win the comp, you needs players in the Origins. It’s a must. Obviously it means you have great players but more important I think is the added experience in big games. Coaches will want to keep players in cotton wool through origin season and say they shouldn’t play, but it helps the teams chances a lot more if they do play (imo)
Nick Maguire
Roar Rookie
MJ, unfortunately I think Parra is also a forlorn hope. Maybe fire to frying pan?
Nick Maguire
Roar Rookie
Paul, its whatever makes you happy mate! I suppose if success only means a Premiership you are going to be very unfulfilled across a lifetime. Cheers
Rob
Guest
The Cowboys (2005) conceded 50 more points the year JT arrived than they did the year before (2004) JT never made the Cowboys a better defensive team unfortunately. Scary thing is the Cowboys were the second worse defensive team in 2007 and conceded 618 points (100 more than in 2004) and finished 3rd. The first 2 season 95-96 the Cowboys had the worse defence in the comp but the Cowboys were never the worse team from then on from memory.
Nick Maguire
Roar Rookie
:laughing:
Ben Lewis
Roar Pro
I see this year as the last year of the premiership window of both the Rabbits and the Eels. If they can’t take it this year; I see them slipping down the ladder in the same way the Raiders did after 2019. For my own sake; I hope I’m wrong.
Joey
Guest
I’ve always thought it would be a great idea to have a wooden spoon play-off on Grand Final day. Regardless of who finished last after the season proper, that the last two teams were forced to battle it out in front of a packed ANZ stadium. Jubilation for the winners, and the spoon actually presented to the losers. At least there would be some nail-biting action on the last day, even if your team did hopeless otherwise.
Tony
Roar Guru
Well spotted
Joey
Guest
Tim, to be fair, what you wrote was exactly correct. NRL didn’t start in 1908. The NRL replaced NSWRL and Super League / ARL comps, so only from 1998 onwards.
Joey
Guest
They beat Manly, the Canberra, then Bulldogs, then Saints - and they were also in 5th after round 9.
Joey
Guest
Sure it looks like one of the current top couple of teams will win. But hey, Parra and Penrith were 1 & 2 this time last year. Neither won. Dragons and Warriors were top 2 after 9 rounds in 2018. Neither won. Cowboys, Broncos top 2 after round 9 in 2016. Neither won. That’s 3 of the last 5 years, where being in the top2 after 9 was no good. The other 2 years it was good to be on top.