Money ballers: These 23 off contract stars are the value buys in NRL player market

By Nathan Ryan / Expert

They may not be the household names, or considered marquee players, whose faces feature on advertising boards and commercials.

But they’re the players your team needs to get right – role players who deliver bang for buck.

The term ‘Money Ball’ is thrown around far too often in rugby league circles these days but this is where it applied – signings you want your club to make because they deliver quality on a budget.

NRL clubs are no different to any business. They want a return on their investment.

Looking at the list of players off-contract as of November, there are several quality men without a deal who could help your team go from pretenders to contenders

Let’s start in the middle.

The likes of Ofahiki Ogden, Aidan Tolman, Aaron Woods, Dunamis Lui, Leeson Ah Mau, Dylan Napa, Josh King, Mark Nicholls and Thomas Mikaele are amongst the middles unsigned for next year.

South Sydney prop Nicholls is a worker.

He averages 104 metres per game and has a tackle efficiency of 95 percent. At 31, he’s an experienced head who has been part of some first class systems in Melbourne and the Rabbitohs.

Like Nicholls, Aaron Woods is Mr Dependable and looms as a wonderful buy for any club in need of an experienced role player.

(Photo by Getty Images)

The same can be said for Raiders’ Dunamis Lui. With 96 percent tackle efficiency and an average of 10 run metres per carry, the 168 gamer has plenty to offer.

Canterbury’s, Ogden, is an interesting prospect.

At the age of 25, he’s nearing 50 NRL appearances and for someone who averages 31 minutes of game time, his output is solid.

Averaging 75 metres per game and a tackle efficiency of 90 percent, he’s not a player you would have to break the bank for but could prove a handy pick-up.

Unsung Newcastle workhorse, King could be another bargain find.

While it took him some time to find his feet in the top grade, this no-nonsense ball of granite is one of the hardest hitters in the game.

With a 96.9 percent tackle efficiency, the prop has a tremendous work ethic and from a culture standpoint, is one of the loveliest young men you’ll ever meet.

Averaging 25 minutes and 54 run metres per game, he’s played over 70 NRL games and is only improving each season.

If you’re in need of a backrower, how about rolling the dice on Tepai Moeroa.

Remember him? There was a time where he was earmarked as a future NSW Origin representative. Even though he’s spent the last 24 months in rugby, the reality is he’s still only 25.

He has over 100 NRL games under his belt and plenty of good years ahead of him.

The backrower is with Melbourne for the remainder of the season and yet to debut for the club but given he’s not commanding the $500,000 plus a season he once was, he could prove quite the investment for someone in need of another edge.

If we move to the backline, Blake Ferguson is a household name but has become a bit of a forgotten man this year.

In and out of the Parramatta first grade squad, the flyer looks unlikely to remain at the Eels next season. The 31-year-old is also unlikely to command the $500,000 a season asking price he’s previously commanded.

But he’d be a handy pick-up and is a big body who can start your sets with gusto.

He’s averaging 164 metres per game and a try every two games. In 13 appearances this year, he’s made 46 tackle breaks and set up three tries. His tackle efficiency rating is at 85 percent, the best of his entire 12-year career.

Another winger of note is Jordan Pereira, the Dragons man who has caught the attention of Brisbane.

The 28-year-old was a late bloomer in the NRL and while he’s only made four appearances this season, his stats have shown he has plenty to offer. Last season he averaged 167 run metres over 15 games, while this year in his four matches he’s averaging 136 metres.

Expect the Broncos to announce his signing soon.

Jordan Rapana, Will Hopoate, Will Chambers and Edrick Lee are also off-contract, while The Roar understands North Queensland have some competition chasing the signature of centre Murray Tualagi.

In the halves and utility space, Tyrone Peachey and Connor Watson have plenty to offer.

The Roar understand Peachey is poised to make a call on his future in the next fortnight, while Watson is considering an offer from the Knights.

Tyrone May, Dylan Walker, Bryce Cartwright and Tex Hoy are also unsigned beyond this season.

That being said, it has been reported that Cartwright is poised to extend with the Eels for another couple of seasons.

It’s easy to get lost in the name or caught up in reputations, good or bad.

But when you look at the stats and even do some projection work on some of the younger players, these signings are in many ways, the most important to get right. They give you the flexibility in your cap and ability to load up in key areas.

With six round remaining before the finals series kicks off, expert the transfer market to get very busy, very soon.

The Crowd Says:

2021-07-28T05:10:05+00:00

Tony Harper

Editor


what a great moment that was!

2021-07-28T02:13:35+00:00

matth

Roar Guru


You are going to have some editing challenges from now Tony. After yesterday a great Australian sporting moment is now going to be called a _____ Yeah! Maybe we need to call is a 'McKeown' or maybe a 'Caboolture' to get through the censors.

2021-07-27T23:48:22+00:00

mushi

Roar Guru


There’s an irony here in applying the money ball moniker to this approach. We’re using effective tackle percentage on the assumption it’s the correlation to defensive effectiveness without actually doing any work to check. It’s like saying home runs define a hitter and defence wins championships… the precise zeitgeist that the money ball concept sought to take advantage of and outwit. Problem is that tackle effectiveness has never been well correlated to points allowed in a game outside of blow outs. So if you’re using it in your dossier on player value your model is broken. Doing a rough and dirty ladder of tackle effectiveness of (missed+ineffective) / (Missed+ineffective+total tackles) here are the 5 “best” defensive sides in the comp with their rank on actual points allowed and it’s a like random mix of teams. Knights 1st in effectiveness (10th in points allowed) Warriors 2 (12) Eels 3 (3) Bunnies 4 (5) Doggies 5 (16) And this year isn’t an outlier. Tackle effectiveness I think has some merit for measuring “desire” but ironically no merit as a yard stick for effectiveness. The only really sensible thing in here is “The term ‘Money Ball’ is thrown around far too often in rugby league circles these days”

2021-07-27T11:21:13+00:00

Geoff from Bruce Stadium

Roar Rookie


Don Furner already has the contract prepared for Jordy – I guess its just a matter of whether it is one or two seasons. Jordan is the heart and soul of the Raiders. I’d be pretty devastated if he left for the big bucks elsewhere. The Japanese union experiment fell in a heap. I reckon he’ll stay. The Raiders have also signed up most of their young blokes for the next two seasons apart from HSS but I don’t think his signature is too far off. I suspect Curtis Scott’s salary will help that happen. About the only spot they don’t have covered is a replacement for George Williams. And here has been nothing reported about a possible signing. I was wondering if they might make a play for Milford or Ash Taylor at the Titans but we aren’t hearing anything. Maybe they are being patient and playing a longer game for someone they think can lead them to a premiership.

2021-07-27T08:02:20+00:00

JOHN ALLAN

Guest


I think Roosters weren’t prepared to offer Ferguson the length of contract that the Eels were.

2021-07-27T07:18:21+00:00

R N

Roar Rookie


Signing Napa would be the equivalent of ordering a bulk shipment of Viagra to the Unsullied!

2021-07-27T07:03:57+00:00

Birdy

Roar Rookie


I'm just not a Ferguson fan. There must be a reason the chooks let him go to parra. In my opinion he could run 200m every game ,score every game then do something stupid in the GF.

2021-07-27T06:20:00+00:00

Nathan Ryan

Roar Rookie


Agreed. Great get.

2021-07-27T06:19:30+00:00

Nathan Ryan

Roar Rookie


Huge news for the Storm

2021-07-27T06:19:04+00:00

Nathan Ryan

Roar Rookie


Could be. Lots of potential, that's for sure!

2021-07-27T06:17:47+00:00

Nathan Ryan

Roar Rookie


Absolutely. Nail on the head with Opacic. Same with Hunt to Newcastle 3 years ago. And Nicholls at Souths.

2021-07-27T05:59:42+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


Just saw a report that the Roosters have picked up Renouf Atoni on a 300k, 2 year deal to replace Isaac Liu Great pick up for them if true. Heaps of potential. Criminally under utilised by the Bulldogs while clowns like Napa got a locked in spot delivering nothing on 6 times the money…

2021-07-27T05:37:27+00:00

Chris Love

Roar Guru


Perfect example to Opacic for Parramatta. They got him on the cheap and has fantastic decision making in defence for a centre. Runs the right lines for his playmakers and passes the ball when he needs to. None of that can be said of his bigger dollar opposite in Waqa Blake. If Parra could get another Opacic on the same dollars to replace Waqa and use the cash elsewhere they'd be mad not to.

2021-07-27T05:00:37+00:00

Forty Twenty

Roar Rookie


I'm not keen on any of these players coming to Manly on the surface but at the right price a couple might be good for depth. Rapana used to be one of my favorite opposition players and one who used to carve the Eagles up on a regular basis but I think he's way past his best, despite doing well last weekend. He's not fast any more and isn't the dynamic tackle buster he was. He's too prone to making errors as well. The Raiders need to move on from yesterday's heroes and he's one of them. Savage is the Raiders player I'd want.

2021-07-27T04:24:23+00:00

Nick Maguire

Roar Rookie


Might be TOO good for Bellamy! :laughing:

2021-07-27T04:11:53+00:00

Nat

Roar Guru


IMO he is highly under utilised. The most minutes he has played in 50 but usually mid 30's. Strong as, half his run meters are post contact, he has an offload and barely misses in D. Get him in the right surrounds and he could be as good as any of props coming through.

2021-07-27T04:08:17+00:00

Tony Harper

Editor


Love it. Too long tho

2021-07-27T04:01:52+00:00

Tony

Roar Guru


Or maybe for the next 8 years

2021-07-27T03:58:40+00:00

matth

Roar Guru


Off contract Average Joe's?

2021-07-27T03:46:17+00:00

Nick Maguire

Roar Rookie


Nat, don't know anything about him. Looks like he's had a lot of games in 3 years so WTs must rate him. He's a big unit and has a great pedigree: Keebra Park, AUS schoolboys and QLD U18 so you wouldn't reckon they are going to let him go but you never know! Cheers

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