So close, but not really that far away. That was the general feeling among Wallabies fans in the aftermath of the 33-25 loss in the first Bledisloe Cup Test in Auckland.
Yes, there should be plenty of recognition that the better side won on the night, but there were more than enough signs to know that this wasn’t like a lot of opening Bledisloe losses in recent years. My immediate feeling is that plenty of Wallabies sides of the not-too-distant past would’ve lost that match 54-8, and nothing I’ve seen since changes my mind on that.
But it’s in taking a closer look at where it went south that should leave Wallabies fans in a better place, because though the scoreboard reads 24-0 in that 25-minute period, it becomes obvious that there’s nothing that can’t quickly turn around in the space of a week.
38:29 – Michael Hooper penalised for being in front of Len Ikitau’s clearing kick inside the Wallabies 22
He was in front, no question, as Ikitau’s kick was from reasonably deep in the territory. Damian McKenzie did well to keep the kick in play, flirting dangerously with the touchline in his own half, and from there the All Blacks played immediately to the other side of the ground, where Paul Williams announced the penalty advantage in play.
New Zealand played six phases from the point of McKenzie’s touchline balancing act, but interestingly the mark was given well outside the Wallabies 22 when Hooper was at least three metres inside the 22 when he started his advance in front of the kick.
It makes you wonder if Richie Mo’unga might not have just opted for the (much easier) three points instead of kicking for the corner had Williams gone to the actual mark much more within comfortable kicking range.
It was a sliding doors moment just before halftime, and no doubt there’d have been a different feel in the Wallabies rooms with the score reading 12-8 instead of 16-8.
(Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
44:34 – Harry Wilson gets up too quickly on Richie Mo’unga in front of the New Zealand posts
Probably thinking Mo’unga would kick, Wilson invited the All Blacks No. 10 around him with some simple footwork.
And getting around Wilson then dragged Noah Lolesio off Anton Lienert-Brown, who Mo’unga found with a simple offload, which then found McKenzie, and he threw a questionable pass to Rieko Ioane in space.
Ioane made it nearly to halfway before throwing a pretty ordinary pass behind Cody Taylor, which Aaron Smith had to stop and catch behind him. It was this loss of momentum and a need to spin a full 360 degrees that led to Smith’s pass to Brodie Retallick being thrown forward, ultimately killing off a certain international try of the year candidate.
It was a misreading from Wilson, but it was his move to the openside initially that allowed Lolesio and the backs to mark up correctly on the All Blacks backs. Once he’d initiated that correction, Wilson really needed to make the tackle.
49:15 – Lolesio misses a penalty attempt from halfway
Surprisingly, length was not an issue here for Lolesio despite Rob Valetini holding the ball in place for him while lying on the halfway line.
Without the swirling wind inside the stadium, I’ve got no doubt the different flight characteristics of the New Zealand Adidas ball – they’re lighter and fly further than the Gilbert – convinced Lolesio he had the range, which was proven by the fact McKenzie caught the ball just inside the dead-ball line.
But the fact the ball needed holding in the first place might have been a red flag. For one thing, while they were setting up, you can see Lolesio getting Valetini to change his touchpoint from the top of the ball to the side.
Once in flight the ball moves pretty much immediately to the left, but then McKenzie was actually back behind the left-hand upright when he made the catch, the ball having swung back in toward the posts after swinging well outside to start with.
They were rough conditions to kick in coupled with the lack of familiarity of both Lolesio kicking with a finger on the ball and of Valetini supplying the finger.
(Photo by Anthony Au-Yeung/Getty Images)
50:48 – Hunter Paisami pass is intercepted by Mo’unga
Much of the Australian broadcast commentary in the replays centred on Mo’unga seemingly coming from nowhere to swoop on Paisami’s pass, but the wide shot the phase previous showed the No. 10 coming up into the line having been back defending in the corner, possibly expecting the cross-field kick.
You can see why Paisami thought the pass was on. He had Lolesio trailing behind and Tom Banks on his outside, and Taylor, Lienert-Brown and Ioane all squeezed way in.
Jordan Petaia was out wide on his own from this view. But so was Mo’unga, and it’s fair to say he saw the pass coming well before Paisami or even Petaia saw him.
Initially I wondered why there was a need for the cut-out pass and thought that putting the ball through the hands might have put Banks in space, but I don’t know that would’ve been the case now with the benefit of several rewinds.
Maybe if Lolesio was closer, but even getting the ball to him would have invited Ioane to slide out on Banks.
Perhaps, if Mo’unga had have been seen, a little grubber in behind the line might have put Petaia in space.
(Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
53:38 – Paisami loses ball in contact from attacking maul
The five-metre lineout hadn’t gone well for the Wallabies, with the All Blacks winning the shove and forcing the maul back nearly ten metres.
Then Tate McDermott delayed the pass while holding the ball in the maul, allowing the New Zealand line more time to set, before sending it off to Paisami, who unfortunately was stripped by the second man into the tackle.
A quicker abandoning of the maul when it first started going backwards was in order, and the ball certainly needs to come out quicker regardless.
56th min – Taniela Tupou loses footing in scrum, is then caught offside when McKenzie takes quick tap
A bit of a mix-up between Tupou and Hooper sees the Wallabies pack pinged for losing their bind, and Tupou concedes the offside penalty rather than let McKenzie run past.
The All Blacks played nine phases from a lineout in Australian territory before going left for David Havili to stretch out and put the ball on the line.
62:02 – Darcy Swain picks up the ball in the ruck from a clear offside position
This was pretty clear, one of those ‘oh no’ moments that Swain has had in his game coming up through the ranks.
From the lineout the All Blacks played another eight or nine phases before McKenzie scored in the corner with penalty advantage to make it 33-8.
And we all know what happened from there.
The point about highlighting these moments is to show there was no one element in particular that let the Wallabies down. Most if not all of these little moments are relatively easily addressed, and it’s also worth noting that with the exception of Hooper being in front of Ikitau’s kick before halftime, all of them happened within New Zealand territory.
The Wallabies were asking questions of the All Blacks defence, and they were making plenty of ground to start applying pressure.
The opposition will make the necessary adjustments for Game 2, but there’s no reason to suggest the Wallabies won’t also be much improved for holding their nerve and staying disciplined in the return match next weekend.
There was plenty to like about the Wallabies performance, not least of which their continued and growing ability to play out the full 80 minutes, as they did throughout the France series.
It makes Bledisloe 2 all the more mouth-watering.
Cadfael
Roar Guru
I thought the intercept from Paisami was the killer, a probable 12 point turnaround.
jeznez
Roar Guru
Thanks for the pointer Nick. Watched it again this morning and accept you and Williams are right. I thought that Karl had just over extended as he drove forward but watching his flank Papalii there is no shunt from him and I don't think Tu'inukuafe gets that big a shift forward without some drive behind him. As you say, it looks like Tupou pulling back to drop him. Excellent refereeing by Williams to pick that up real time.
Connor33
Guest
Fellas, perhaps be a little more analytical as to when the penalties to Abs were awarded (ie, when the game counted) and when the penalties for Australia blew out (ie, in the last 5 minutes albeit when there was no YC). Til then it was closer to 11:8 (ie, before NZ put 33 on the board.) All too cute, but good acknowledgment that of the ref awarding the ABs 2:1 last year in Wellington! Hats off for that one.
JC
Roar Rookie
It’s not looking good for JoC, is it? I just hope they settle soon on their best mid-field combination.
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
where it says “26 rucks executed before losing 1 Vs 21 NZL”, it should read “36 rucks executed before losing 1 Vs 21 NZL …”
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
Interesting targeting, Brett ...! Yesterday I was watching the game again, fine-tuning the keypad of my video analysis software for RugbyChampionship. I am convinced that AUS delivered the match from the point of view of the effectiveness of the attack in 22 Opp and "ceded" the fixed formations to NZL. The breakdown, which was a theme that I saw as weaker, responded well (26 rucks executed before losing 1 Vs 21 of NZL). The deficit in the definition in 22 Opp (44% effectiveness), could be related to the area from where AUS launched its penetration in 22 M NZL (55.6% of the entries were from the left wing and only 44, 4% for the center and right). Excellent match with more questions for NZL than for AUS. Greetings...!
Faith
Roar Rookie
BB has lost speed but Richie nowhere near where the former was a few years ago. Richie has very quick reflexes and feet ...
Faith
Roar Rookie
Unless the ABs get a red card or the WBs have one of those performances they have once a season for them (I don't see this happening at Eden Park) this will be the standard 2nd Test. ABs will be locked in. The RC or EOYT can't come quickly enough for me. Both these teams are way behind the level of forward play by Bokke, France and England and they are better off playing those sides to know where they are. I'm not sure the ABs should take any games seriously till they meet the Boks. I think the WBs should not take too much stock from keeping up with the ABs. ... these numerous tests between them really tell us nothing and set both up for the inevitable fall in RWC ...
Fox
Roar Guru
Gees Clean out... Take out ...talk about playing with semantics PK no wonder its very grey for goodness sake.
nroko
Roar Rookie
The first 30 minutes is where Wallabies stuffed up and pretty much lost the game. ABs making errors, inviting WBs deep in their half but they couldn't execute. ABs minimised the damage in that period. When the momentum swung Wallabies had no answer, let in almost 30 unanswered points. Momentum swung again this time Wallabies executed better and the points came but too late.
GJ
Roar Rookie
The biggest turning points were missing four lineouts in a row at the start of the game and banks consistently not doing his job and finding touch down field. He was out kicked all day and cost the side major meters. Cumulative effect of those very high cost to Aus. NZ will not play as badly as they did in the first 25 mins of that game for the rest of the series. That’s when the wallabies should have put the points on. That will happen when you make guys like Rory Arnold, top 3 of the best lineout jumpers in the world, ineligible. Also Latu is better than Amosa and Kerevi should be eligible instead of Paisami who is good in defence but consistently makes bad judgment calls with the ball and is generally ineffective. Add in Skelton who is also playing well and develop guys like Faamisili and Elof and have the bench start and the team would be amongst the best in the world. NZ will flog the wallabies in the second game.
The Late News
Roar Rookie
No reason but decided to put my occupation on the census as artiste le merde.
Fox
Roar Guru
Brave call Maxp but we shall see next weekend whether AB's had an off game or not i guess. But to say the Wallabies ...like the AB's - didn't play well in patches .. is a little unfair I think. But I would still tread cautiously if i was a Wallaby fan. Why? Only because - and credit to the Wallabies this was the first tough game - realistically the AB's have had so far whereas the Wallabies have come of a great series win against a very competitive French side and looked the better for it. But now the AB's have learned a bit playing a side that really challenged then in places and who came back at the end ... I think we will see a very very different AB side this week. The Wallabies will of course improve as well but it is at Eden Park and this AB's will not want to be the first side that loses there in 27 years. I just think also the AB's have the far superior halves. Aron Smith said he didn't think it was his best game and got an bit overwhelmed by the occasion of 100 tests at the start but still had good game overall... but he was clearly disappointed with himself so we shall see. And no you are not and idiot or deluded ... i just think its a big call for the reasons above. Doesn't mean you will be wrong on the night.
jim
Guest
I understand the points that you are making but , it is not enough for the Wallabies to be close and the errors small. From my angle, they usually learn from their errors and correct them only to make a whole host of other mistakes. A lot of the errors are neither tactical nor set piece but simple stupid mistakes. Of course some happen but not this number, at this level. They never seem to build, it is always two paces forward and three back. I really think it is all about fear - fear of failure and fear of making a mistake. It is risk avoidance rather than the risk acceptance that comes from inner confidence. Whilst the underlying mantra is always "playing the best improves the team', I think there is space for a few "gimmes" against weaker teams to allow the players to build confidence and see that set pieces will work. However, I am sure the bean counters who dominate the game would be horrified at the potential loss of receipts.
mzilikazi
Roar Pro
"What is it with the constant retention of LSL?" He is a good hard forward, carries well, and can jump well if used. From memory of Rodda, LSL is at least as good a player....but Rodda unknown quantity at this stage post France stint.
WEST
Roar Guru
Nice breakdown Brett What I took away from Bledisloe 1 was both teams struggled in the first twenty minutes or so, making unforced errors etc. The conditions weren’t ideal, but to be honest it was a sloppy game. The ABs are creating a tradition of playing poorly in their first match against the Wallabies, and traditionally coming back twice as hard the next game. One thing I noticed about the All Blacks game plan was this strategy of spreading it out wide trying to spread the Wallabies defence. Instead of using our kicking game more, we usually create opportunities with our kick and chase? We should of used that breeze and the moisture on the ground to apply pressure within the first 20 minutes. But they also didn’t really get the forwards involved. But in saying that, with the volume of errors it was difficult to apply any real pressure… So you have to give credit to the Wallabies, they brought a solid defensive effort into it. Also credit to Rennie, he’s done his homework and knew where to find opportunities within the ABs. The most frustrating part for Rennie will be the Wallabies not capitalising on all the mistakes by the All Blacks. When they did start applying pressure they lose a line out or made mistakes of their own. Rennie will know that the All Blacks rarely make that amount mistakes. Or play poorly twice in a row.. At some stages the ABs were 3 penalties in a row and multiple errors, yet the Wallabies struggled to create points. I’ll expect a far more direct aggressive approach by the All Blacks, they’ll want their forwards involved far more. The All Blacks will use their loose forwards to clean out rucks more effectively. Drive it up more with quick pick and goes and get the Wallabies on the back foot. But their accuracy and discipline need to far better. For the Wallabies; Rennie is developing a Wallabies team that doesn’t roll over like before, they’re now capable of sticking around the full 80 minutes. I think the Wallabies will be better this week as well, will it be enough to put the All Blacks away? We’ll see.
mzilikazi
Roar Pro
"didn’t the AB no 10 give the Wallaby No 7 a friendly pat on the back of the head. " Yes, BB, saw that...petulant really, have never seen Mo'unga do anything like that before.
PeterK
Roar Guru
you can cleanout the halfback but can't take him out! Hard to differentiate between the 2 sometimes. In reality it comes down to playing the halfback without the ball and the ref has determined that side has clearly won the ball, and this is considered taking out the halfback and not cleaning out or counter rucking. Very grey though.
Fox
Roar Guru
To’omua will start at 12 IMO unless there is a feeling he is a better short form test player than a long game one these days. MK will be back as well and if they keep Reiko on the wing that could get interesting. Lately MK has rarely had anyone with gas his off the mark gas marking him, he may do next week depending on where they use Reiko. ALB did not have his best night at 13. I still think he is the best 12 in NZ. I also thin Will Jordan should start at 15. He is more dangerous there even than DMac IMO and i think if Robertson was the AB’s coach it would be a no brainer for him. Tupou is the big question… the Wallabies lose a lot not having him on the bench as impact and he seems to go better from there but after every second test the old question emerges ,…What to do with Tupou? usually because the wallabies don’t gain ascendency in the scrum but these days parity give or take. The other props are good but they don’t have that x-factor that he has.
Fox
Roar Guru
Hi Pk , I think it might be interesting if a captain confronted a ref and said show where it says we cannot cleanout then halfback in the rules? Funny how that is not a rule but it "lets pretend it is" but putting the ball under your own hookers feet is illegal...policed for a while and then suddenly not...but still in the rules of the game as far as i know... but hey "lets pretend its not". the entire thing needs a major clean up.