The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 23

It’s blockbuster city as we close out the 2021 home-and-away season.

We’ve got first versus second, third versus fourth, all but one match has (technical) finals implications – and the one that doesn’t is 17th versus 18th!

Hats off to the AFL’s fixturing department.

It’s all to play for in the tipping department too. Sevens for myself and Liam Salter, combined with sixes for Dem Panopoulos and the Crowd, mean Liam and the general public after level on 118, with Dem and myself narrowly behind on 116.

Can Liam make the third time the charm and take out the title – while knocking off the crowd in the process?

Stirling Coates

Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Sydney, Brisbane, Geelong, GWS Giants, St Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne

We really are being treated to an excellent finish to the season.

Friday night should be a belter; the Bulldogs are out of form, Port Adelaide are rolling along nicely – but you sense a lot of punters still don’t trust the Power to get it done against the big boys.

Count me among them. If this was being played in Adelaide I’d probably go Port’s way (even though the Dogs knocked them off there earlier this season), but a return to the comforts of Marvel means I’ll back the Doggies nab the four points and finish the home-and-away season in second place.

Hawthorn are in the midst of their first three-game winning streak since the end of 2019, when they were farewelling premiership legends and knocked off the reigning premiers (West Coast) in the final week.

Looks like it’s your turn to suffer the same fate, Richmond. The Tigers have been in such dreadful form regardless that I’d be backing the Hawks regardless of the occasion.

Sydney currently suffer the ignominy of being the only side who have lost their two most recent meetings with Gold Coast. It seems like another life, but the Suns smacked them by 40 points earlier in the year.

Brisbane have decided they want to play excellent footy again and will look to put their hat in the top four ring against the golf course-bound Eagles.

I will again remind you that I tipped West Coast to miss the eight before the season began and keep my fingers crossed that they don’t score the upset win here and ruin my prediction at the death.

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Geelong versus Melbourne on Saturday night deserves a preview of its own, but all I’ve got to go off for this one is home ground advantage. The Demons do boast a somewhat recent win at Kardinia Park, but I reckon it’ll be a minor premiership for the Cats.

I’d like to see Carlton show something for Eddie Betts and David Teague, but the reality is they have a truly horrible record against Greater Western Sydney – winning one of their last nine meetings by a solitary point. That trend will almost certainly continue given the Giants are expecting reinforcements.

St Kilda being told to take a home game to Tasmania so soon after the Carter report raises my eyebrow. Their game against Fremantle is one of the more inconsequential this weekend, but one of the hardest to tip.

The Dockers deserve plaudits for downing Richmond and West Coast recently, but it’s 2021 – they’re not finals teams anymore. The Saints have downed the Swans and pushed Geelong all the way in the last fortnight and get my tip as a result.

Essendon should really take Collingwood to the cleaners and punch their ticket to the finals in the process, while I’ll back North Melbourne to grab their fifth win of the year over the reeling Crows. If they get up, their record of 5-16-1 will make them the ‘best’ wooden spooners since the Brisbane Lions of 1998.

The Shoe-In of the Week has been a curse for heavy favourites all season, and it’s the Bombers who get the burden this weekend.

Dem Panopoulos

Western Bulldogs, Richmond, Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne, GWS Giants, Fremantle, Collingwood, North Melbourne

Alright, we’ve finally reached the end.

Given the fact that two of us are behind, there’s no sense playing it safe, although last time I tried to vary it, we all tipped the same. We’ll see how this goes.

An absolute cracker kicks off the round to see who is finishing where in the top four.

Everything really points towards the Power, but Ryan Gardner has become important for the defensive structure of the home team. We’ll tip them.

Now, my gut and head say that Hawthorn will beat Richmond, but apparently that’s a popular opinion. With no visibility on how the others are tipping here it’s a tough one, but I’m going to have to hope the Tigers stop playing like a bottom-four side, and that everyone else tips Hawthorn.

The Suns have won three of their last four against the Swans and two of their last three at Marvel Stadium. Surely the team entrenched in finals won’t slip on this banana peel a week before the good stuff begins though.

No upset tip for the Eagles, they’ve been deplorable and the Lions are hitting that flag-winning form right about now.

The top two team facing off on Saturday night is a perfect fixture for the final round. The Cats fought back well, while the Demons are looking professional at this stage. Stirling, Liam, feel free to go with home-ground advantage, it’s a free tip from me. I’ll go Melbourne for the sake of it.

Given how the Blues sent off a legendary player like Marc Murphy against Port, you’d hope they can learn and at least keep it under ten goals for Eddie Betts. Strangely enough, if the Giants slip here, they could miss finals. You wouldn’t think that’s possible.

Fremantle’s my tip to win sirengate 2.0 and keep the dream alive, with any luck this game will start on Sunday and end up being the pre-match entertainment for the first final if someone forgets to blow the siren again.

Here it is. Here’s the tip to blow it wide open. Collingwood will beat Essendon. I have no further comments to add.

Finally, it’s quite unbelievable that Adelaide beat the Hawks a few weeks ago to avoid the spoon. This could’ve been magical. Still, it’s within their best interests to not win here, so we’ll go North.

Liam Salter

Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne, GWS Giants, Fremantle, Essendon, North Melbourne

We begin with a huge Friday night game between the Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide. The proposition is simple for the Dogs: lose this, and the chances of making top four take a significant hit. The motivation to retain their top four spot is one thing, but the Dogs’ form is another.

The Power appeal as a tip here. They looked good last week, have sewn the double chance up and sport an underrated record at Marvel Stadium. It cannot be that easy, though. I’m going to back the Dogs to bounce back in a thriller.

Saturday afternoon has the two easier tips of the weekend. Sydney’s game against Suns won’t be a walkover – Gold Coast have a tendency to upset the Swans – but the ‘home side’ will help themselves to a big win on the eve of finals. The Tigers need a gazillion things to go right for them to make finals, but the simplest thing is them winning over the Hawks. I’m going to back Alistair Clarkson, though, to put one final exclamation mark on his long tenure with victory.

The Eagles’ finals hopes are on life support after an unexpected Derby loss, and fate has drawn them a bad time to be meeting the Lions. Brisbane’s form has vastly improved and they’ll be winning this game by plenty.

Saturday night’s GWS-Carlton encounter has had a bit of shine taken off it given the Blues’ recent form, giving the Giants the opportunity to score a big win. The result aside, it’ll be sad to see Carlton farewelling a legend of the game in Eddie Betts. Here’s hoping for some cracking goals in your final outing, Eddie.

(Photo by Matt Roberts/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Not many superlatives can describe the Geelong and Melbourne clash. It’s as simple as this for the Dees: if they are victorious, the minor premiership is theirs. The picture is more complicated for the Cats, yet equally as enticing.

The Demons will be helped by the fact that – by virtue of several prospective returns – they’ll be a stronger team that last week, while the Cats showed vulnerability against the Saints. This is a seriously hard tip, but I’ve learned to (largely) trust the Demons and I’m (60 per cent) sure they won’t let me down in backing them for the win.

Sunday’s Saints and Freo clash is almost certainly going to be close, as recent history suggests. The Dockers were brilliant in the Derby and simply must win if they’re to make finals and they’ll be bolstered by the return of Andy Brayshaw.

On the flipside, the interstate location – Tassie! – benefits the Saints purely by virtue of the Dockers not being very good away from Perth. I can’t deny, this is a bit of head versus heart decision, but I’m going to go Freo.

Essendon will know their finals fate by the time their game starts but, whatever happens elsewhere, a win guarantees them a spot in the eight. Given their game is against Collingwood, I’m comfortable in backing them.

The season’s final home and away game should see a rather good wooden spooner in North defeat an atrocious Adelaide outfit.

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