Whenever a team wins the NRL premiership, the victorious coach is invariably asked whether they can go back to back and they always say they’re confident of defending their title.
When the Panthers survived a nail-biter to beat South Sydney in last season’s grand final, Ivan Cleary was asked the obligatory question.
“I must say at this stage I couldn’t give a shit about next year,” was his brutally honest response.
He wasn’t being a smart-arse, it was just that after more than four decades as a player and coach of experiencing only defeat on grand final day, he was soaking up the thrill of holding a trophy aloft.
“I’m sure I will,” he continued. “I just want to savour this moment as long as we can. We’ve definitely done it the hard way but that suited us.”
There’s a reason why defending a title in the NRL is extremely rare – it’s an extremely tough task.
The Roosters of 2018-19 are the only team to have achieved the feat since the Broncos of 1992-93 (no the 1997-98 Brisbane side doesn’t count because they were done in separate competitions).
Another common occurrence after a premiership is for a champagne-soaked and sozzled executive from the winning team coming out with a bold declaration that the club was now set up to be a dynasty, heaping more unnecessary expectation on the premiers.
Penrith are as well placed as the Roosters of a few years ago to overcome the odds. The bookmakers certainly think so with PlayUp listing them as joint favourites alongside Melbourne.
With an average age of 24 when they triumphed in October, the squad is super young and their main core of players will remain youthful with Queensland forward Kurt Capewell one of their off-season departures.
The rest of their nucleus is either entering or in the midst of the prime years of their career, such as star halfback Nathan Cleary, his co-captain Isaah Yeo, five-eighth Jarome Luai, centre Stephen Crichton and key forwards Liam Martin and James Fisher-Harris.
They’ve also lost centres Matt Burton (Bulldogs) and Paul Momirovski (Roosters), and bench utility Tyrone May (Catalans) from their grand final line-up.
Crichton will revert to centre, Charlie Staines will come back into the side on the wing and young gun Izack Tago is likely to be the other centre. It’s a slight problem are but these days centre is the least valuable position, which can be filled by other players from all over the park.
Martin is a readymade edge-forward replacement for Capewell and May’s on-field contribution was limited while club officials will be happy they no longer have to worry about his off-field incidents after sacking him following his distasteful social media post during the grand final celebrations.
When it comes to clubs retaining premiership-winning teams in recent years, Penrith have emerged better than anyone.
They’ll lose a few more next year, with hooker Apisai Koroisau and second-rower Viliame Kikau already poached by the Wests Tigers and Canterbury, but there’s no NRL club with a better ability to regenerate talent than Penrith with their monster junior base blanketing Sydney’s west.
Cleary’s off-season shoulder surgery is naturally a concern but the club will not rush his return – even if he misses the first month of the new season it will hardly matter, his long-term recovery is more important than a few early-season results.
As for Ivan, after finally getting the monkey – or gorilla, as Wayne Bennett termed it – off his back, he will clearly “give a shit”.
He has the chance over the next few years to join the likes of Bennett, Trent Robinson and Craig Bellamy as multiple premiership-winners in the modern era.
As long as they don’t jinx it by declaring they’re on the verge of a dynasty, the Panthers are in a strong position to be the team to beat for the next few years.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
What’s new
They’ll have a couple of new faces bolstering depth – Sean O’Sullivan, who has bounced around the Roosters, Broncos and Warriors, will provide a back-up option for the halves, while former Bulldogs forward Chris Smith could be a handy pick-up, particularly when rep footy ravages the squad. Stephen Crichton’s brother, Christian, has also returned to the club after a stint at Canterbury to strengthen the outside backs.
Star on the rise
Charlie Staines has all the tools to be a strike weapon out wide but he lost his way last season in his second year in the top grade with Momirovski coming in at centre and Stephen Crichton taking his spot on the wing. With Momirovski returning to the Roosters and Crichton set to step back into the centres, there is an opportunity for Staines to re-establish himself on the wing, capitalising on the chances created inside by Penrith’s potent playmakers.
Who’s under the pump
Koroisau is the Panther with the most to lose in 2022 – he was unable to take part in the club’s premiership parade in November after not being vaccinated against COVID-19 and he is unlikely to be representing NSW again after he was fined for breaking biosecurity rules in camp last season. Young rake Mitch Kenny has re-signed until the end of 2024 and with Koroisau off to the Tigers next year, his outlook for this season is somewhat uncertain.
Best-case scenario
The easiest thing for bookmakers every year is to post the premiers as competition favourites, even though only the Roosters of 2019 have successfully defended their title in the NRL era. But the Panthers deserve to be the team to beat – they have retained their premiership-winning squad except for second-rower Capewell and centres Burton and Momirovski.
Worst-case scenario
They won’t miss the finals and it would take a few unforeseen events for them to miss the top four with this squad – star halfback Cleary is on the mend after shoulder surgery and with so much of their attack centred around his playmaking, their title defence would be severely affected if he has any setbacks.
Round 1 predicted team
1. Dylan Edwards
2. Charlie Staines
3. Stephen Crichton
4. Izack Tago
5. Brian To’o
6. Jarome Luai
7. Nathan Cleary
8. Moses Leota
9. Apisai Koroisau
10. James Fisher-Harris
11. Viliame Kikau
12. Liam Martin
13. Isaah Yeo
14. Mitch Kenny
15. Spencer Leniu
16. Matt Eisenhuth
17. Scott Sorensen
Others: Eddie Blacker, Kurt Falls, J’maine Hopgood, Robert Jennings, Taylan May, Sean O’Sullivan, Lindsay Smith, Jaeman Salmon, Chris Smith, Christian Crichton
Rob
Guest
Good team but gee they got the rub of the green. How Cleary, Kikau and a few others avoid suspensions is anyones guess. Also penalties or 6 again are a curious thing and can have a big influence on momentum. Penrith got a lot of penalties in their own end and 6 again late in counts compared to some of the other teams? Only the people running the game can make those calls.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
Api used to get bagged by many Manly supporters for his missed tackle rate but they couldn't see beyond the end of their nose in understanding the full story. Charging up and disrupting the attack is going to lead to the odd miss.
The Sporacle
Roar Rookie
No doubt there is some ego there, sometimes though confidence and ability is lumped in wrongly with ego. Having said that the Jerome Burton hand shake celebration is probably my favourite of all time, just edging out Piggy Ridell jumping into the crowd, taking a seat and applauding his own try :thumbup:
Albo
Roar Rookie
There are few young Panthers with more than handy egos, but confidence can be a positive in competitive sport, as long it doesn’t go over the top to impact adversely on performance. I just don’t see the Panther leaders like Yeo, Cleary , Fisher-Harris letting that get out of hand on the park.
Albo
Roar Rookie
I think that really shows just how many Panthers were up and in for the battle in defence. First up tacklers didn't always get it right , but someone was generally close enough there to cover a miss. In particular Yeo, Capewell & Cleary did a lot of mopping up of mistakes in defence.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
Let's hope so Rellum. I really miss classy centres. One of Leagues glamour positions imo.
The Sporacle
Roar Rookie
Yes I suppose John you have won 1 series in the last 4, so you are travelling pretty well at the moment :thumbup:
Tim Carter
Roar Pro
No, he meant Tim Burton.
Rellum
Roar Guru
The game is evolving and centres are becoming more vital, they are returning to a strike position.
Nat
Roar Guru
Oh dear. Champion, you've broken them down into separate posts because you get so worked up that someone challenges you that you must furiously smack away with every wild retort that you cannot maintain one train of thought. Point -send, oops another point - send. Here's another - send... Now you realise how this comes off you make this excuse. Huff and puff all you want big man, your opinion is exactly the same as mine. You need to accept that and grow TF up. Now just to touch on the valid points. I prefaced that statement with "arguably" did I not? Did I claim a statement of fact? No, not all of us are so arrogant. I also mentioned Cronk but in your demented need to throw Tedesco's Dally M into my face you made no mention of him, why not? He didn't win the club POTY, Dally M or some type of Rep award. You need to furiously argue one point without acknowledging another. That's the mature approach. "his own club voted in whole hearted disagreement with your view" My man, all you know is that Tede won the award - that's it. You don't know the vote tally. Why the emotive statements? Do you think your mayo adds something to the discussion? Nope, it really doesn't. However, Mitchell was named Members Player of the Year 2018. Since we are sharing opinions, it would seem that many more Roosters members agree with my POV but I won't go as far as saying that "all members voted in whole hearted disagreement with you" Now I don't know how many members voted but I am confident it is more than half a dozen board members. It would take an extremely high level of arrogance to make such assertions. "So it doesn’t mean much to you that rep games Mitchell was passed over for Tedesco shone in?" Nope. a 3 game rep series was never part of the argument. You just wanted to add more irrelevant BS to a simple opinion. "Though it does give clarity on how you think Mitchell at centre was more influential than Tedesco at fullback" Hahahahahahahahaha, no. I said that a player that touches the ball 5x more " should have had a significantly more influence but that’s not the case". Aside from where Mitchell was top point scorer in the comp, not just the club, 2 years running, the stats between them are negligible. If Tede was so much more influential than Mitchell despite him touching it far less, the stats would be far more prominent. No, your are so reliant on opinion as is your Fittler, Lewis, and Dally M examples really are. Interesting position for a stats man but that's my point. And lets be clear champ, I didn't get lost before. I simply dismissed a poor little man who needed to revert to Hitler as your example when I made a statement that I believe it does take a level of courage to run for public office. That time, like this time you need to jump to hyperbolic extreme examples to debate a simple opinion. You don't have to agree but surely you have some type of statistic that shows how often the angriest man in the room is usually the smartest. Now, feel free to write another essay, or 15 separate comments justifying why you think you are so very smart but understand it is for your benefit only. You might even get a 'like' but understand I really don't care. All the best to you.
mushi
Roar Guru
So your using an example that certain positions are consistently valued more highly than centre as some kind of proof that centres are more valuable? Or are we just saying we can't use anything that suggests centres are valued less to establish their value? Does it matter that his own club voted in whole hearted disagreement with your view of their comparative influence with Tedesco being player of the year both years at the roosters? I'm breaking these into bite sized chunks as you got lost before.
mushi
Roar Guru
"Brad Fittler and Wally Lewis medals don’t mean much in this against a bloke who played 1 game." So it doesn't mean much to you that rep games Mitchell was passed over for Tedesco shone in?
mushi
Roar Guru
"Coming back to the original point, if you believe the Roosters enjoy the seasons they did without the influence of Mitchell and Manu – good luck to you." Care to point out where I've even insinuated that. I did say "no one is saying centres don't have value" and then you go suggest I've said that Mitchell and Manu would have no effect. Though it does give clarity on how you think Mitchell at centre was more influential than Tedesco at fullback (despite basically saying fullbacks by default are more influential.. which is the actual orignal point).
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Interesting point with the Premiers 10 players of the Top 50 for missed tackles are with the club, yet for the 2nd year in a row they gave away the least points in the league. Burton and particularly Capewell were high up on that list, but cover themselves by usually leading the scramble. It’s hard to beat that.
Nat
Roar Guru
Complacency maybe but could they squeeze in any more ego?
Nat
Roar Guru
I would, that's why I said it. Tede had a cracking 2019, no doubt, picked up the Dally M to Mitchell's Dally M Center OTY. JT13 is the only non FB/half to win the Dally M in the last 30yrs. Considering Tede touches the ball about 5x more than Mitchell he should have had a significantly more influence but that's not the case. Mitchell scored more tries and kicked the goals in both seasons. Coming back to the original point, if you believe the Roosters enjoy the seasons they did without the influence of Mitchell and Manu - good luck to you. Brad Fittler and Wally Lewis medals don't mean much in this against a bloke who played 1 game.
Red Rob
Roar Rookie
Sure sustained sucess is tough, but not unprecedented. In the AFL GFs in the last 2 decades, the Brisbane Lions went WWWL, Hawthorn LWWW and Richmond W-WW
Nat
Roar Guru
It's hard to know what he's worth but it's very easy to point out what he cost the club. What's Walker worth? One good try and one pass that cost the game.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
How silly.
mushi
Roar Guru
Come on who is arguing Mitchell was second behind cronk for two years in which Tedesco exploded for the tri-colours won club player of the year both years, was NSW best player with a Brad Fittler and Wally Lewis Medal, grabbed the dally M and the RPLA player of the year?