Essendon were the surprise packet of the second half of last season – coming from the depths of the ladder to storm all the way into finals. Can they maintain the rage?
We have cited several examples during this AFL Radar 2022 series about new coaches taking half a season or so to get their team performing, and the Bombers under Ben Rutten were another such example.
A 2-6 start to the season had them behind the eight-ball as far as finals went, and while they lost two of their games by big margins to contenders, they lost a couple of others by one and two points only. A 75-point belting of St Kilda showed they had some quality about them.
From there, they went a more than respectable 9-5 in the home and away rounds, winning their last three matches to secure eighth spot and an elimination final berth. Unfortunately they ran into a Bulldogs outfit that had the umpires on their side down in Tasmania, a series of goals from 50-50 free kicks snuffing out any hope of the Dons progressing any further.
While Rutten was the coach in title for the first time in 2021, he had been a senior assistant and coach-elect under John Worsfold in 2019-20. This is well and truly his team now.
What’s new?
Like many clubs, Essendon weren’t active in the trade period. They were happy to go to the draft with pick 13, which they turned into something of a draft slider in inside mid Ben Hobbs.
Hobbs has been named in the Bombers squad for their practise match this weekend against the Western Bulldogs, so many eyes will be on him to see what sort of impression he can make.
Jake Kelly was picked up as a delisted free agent after 110 games in six seasons with the Crows. Not many will have posters of him on their walls, but at 190cm he can play on forwards of all sizes deep in defences, and is the type of role player every successful team needs.
Star on the rise
Andrew McGrath feels like he’s been around forever, so it’s easy to forget the No.1 pick from the 2016 draft is still only 23 despite being on the verge of 100 games.
While being a rock solid AFL player from day dot, the question has been whether McGrath can elevate himself into the elite of the competition. He’s shown that he might at various stages of the last two seasons, and if he can truly make that jump, the Bombers go from a final eight contender to a top-four team.
Andrew McGrath (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Nik Cox, Archie Perkins and Harry Jones were all Rising Star nominees in their debut season last year, and have Dons fans drooling at their future prospects. It’s too early to tell who will be the best of them given they are all vastly different players at this stage of their careers, but they’ll continue to get games into them and excite us all along the way.
Who’s under the pump
Dylan Shiel came to Essendon on a hefty contract heading into the 2019 season, yet three years later there are questions over exactly where he sits in the pecking order.
He moves through traffic like a silky left-footer but often doesn’t finish like we come to expect from that type of player. He can often turn the ball over under no pressure, after he’s done the hard work of breaking free from congestion.
Shiel started last year slowly, but got injured in Round 2 and missed four months. By the time he came back, Darcy Parish had emerged as a premier midfielder of the competition in his place and Jake Stringer was winning centre clearances for fun. Shiel looked like a square peg in a round hole.
Let’s see what he produces in 2022.
Best-case scenario
By making the eight and matching it with an eventual grand finalist in the first week, Essendon have set up base camp, and they should only climb up from here.
Not named in the best 22 below are players like Tom Cutler, Matt Guelfi and Alec Waterman, who all played in that elimination final. Brayden Ham played 19 games last year, and misses out.
Jye Caldwell had his season ruined by injury and is training the house down over summer – he’ll surely find his way in, but at who’s expense? Jake Kelly isn’t in there either; he will play in front of Michael Hurley, at least in the first half of the year.
The Bombers have genuine depth now, and that’s what can help propel them to a top four spot. If they can tighten up two or three goals a game in defence, and find another one or two up forward, they’ll be thereabouts.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/AFL Photos/Getty Images)
Worst-case scenario
It’s hard to see Essendon dropping into the bottom six, unless decimated by injuries, so a floor of 12th should be as low as they can go.
The forward-line still looks patchy, even though they were the fourth heaviest scoring team last year. They’ve shown they can get a run-on against poor teams and/or at Marvel Stadium, but do they yet have the defensive resilience against the best sides? They still lost by seven to ten goals against the likes of Port, Brisbane and Geelong at various stages last season.
A long-running joke on social media now has been how long it’s been since Essendon won a final. The first movie in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, which changed the shape of cinema for more than a decade, was still four years away from being released.
If they don’t win a final in 2022, it will be a wasted year.
Best 22
B Jordan Ridley Michael Hurley James Stewart
HB Nick Hind Jayden Laverde Dyson Heppell
C Kyle Langford Darcy Parish Dylan Shiel
HF Devon Smith Harry Jones Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
F Will Snelling Peter Wright Jake Stringer
Foll Sam Draper Andrew McGrath Zach Merrett
Int Nik Cox Archie Perkins Aaron Francis Mason Redman
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
Appreciate the comment. On a lighter note, think of the following hypothetical. If you were a GM of a strong affluent club & your GM position was guaranteed regardless of team success. If a third party was paying you $1M a year to manage your club so they wouldn't win a finals game in 6380 days, that would be an extremely difficult outcome to achieve. All the best for 2022.
.kraM
Roar Rookie
Can’t disagree on the last part. It’s almost impressive.
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
The round 1 loss is relevant when I read someone complaining about what a tough start the Dons had to the 2021 season. My statement of them having dropped away over the last 20 years relevant due to the fact that they have not won finals game in over 6380 days.
Cliff
Roar Rookie
Essendon won only 11 games last year. The only contender they beat was the Bulldogs who had their tall defenders out injured and 2 meter Peter kicked 7 goals. How much of their storming finish was due to them playing the bottom sides in the second half is hard to say. The free kick count in the 49 point finals thrashing was dogs 17 and the bombers 14. You guys need to get over it. Essendon do show promise but until they can regularly beat top sides they run the risk of missing the finals altogether. 11 wins won’t do it.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Yeah Perko played really well as did Snelling. I reckon Ugle Hagan is inexperienced so it’s all or nothing for him at the moment
berrlins
Roar Pro
Yeah I was expecting big things of JUH after the preseason where everyone talked him up but he looked abit lazy and was ball watching still. Little bit concerning as at times Naughton played a lone hand as the key forward although the Bombers couldn't handle him he'll need support, English still looks like he can't hold his own, hopefully we play more Sweet this year. Ripley gave us a bath, he looked in real good nick with his marking don't mind Perkins game either.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Making excuses/explaining the reasons is a double-edged sword. The glass-half-empties will always dismiss explanations as excuses, while the glass-half-fulls are always looking for analysis that can justify when things go unexpectedly wrong. The Bombers did have some decisions go against them in that final, especially the Draper free kick which hasn't been a free kick in 150 years. However, the Dogs would have won the game anyway, even though we will never know how Essendon might have played had they been able to continue to lead from the front rather than have the momentum shift. Can't argue with the criticism on their defence, although it did improve in the second half of the year compared to the second half of 2020. The cavalry is arriving, with Michael Hurley, Jake Kelly and Zach Reid to join the mix, as well as a few interesting development players in Cody Brand, Patrick Voss and Josh Eyre all competing to be next man up. They will be the tallest side in the comp and still have depth in smaller positions. For a team that didn;t have trouble scoring goals, they are going to have to find some new avenues to goal until Walla returns.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
One factor that hasn't been at play for the Bombers is their Melbourne home crowd advantage, which can also turn games when they are wearing the white shorts.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Young Dons looked good at times last season. Be interesting to see whether there is any "second year blues" to a few of those kids that really came on last year. For me- Forward line to me still doesn't really appeal to me from a consistency perspective. To me they will be around 7-12 mark again this season. I just don't see them taking the next step just yet
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
It's also the constant with Cam. :crying:
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
I wouldn’t be so quick to concede Cats and Tiges are ahead of the Bombers in 2022. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if both drop-off further this year. But there are a lot of sides clamoring for a spot in the 8 and many who can legitimately hope to make it. Which is great for the competition.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
LOL. Couldn't kick a goal in a half of footy and you're blaming the umpires for getting smashed in a final. You'd better hope your team don't think like you, or they'll never be good enough.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
English is till on track to become a star. I just hope he's still with the Doggies when that happens!
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Spot-on DarwinDee. Great comment. Progress is not always linear. Essendon surprised last year with their rapid improvement (the fact it was rapid, not the fact they improved), but they still have a long way to go. I think their forward line particularly lacks potency and it will take a while for the young talent to become consistently good. Plenty to like about their list now though. Love Sam Draper.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
Well picked Don. They must have both shown plenty to be rookied, there will be some real talent in the mid-season draft with so few opportunities for players to show themselves.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Not so sure...I could easily see Tigers top 4
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
Let me guess, free kicks should be even each game?
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
Maybe Essendon should have been more disciplined then - don't push blokes, don't tackle high, so on and so forth. Plus, if you can't wrest back the momentum to kick at least one goal in a half of footy you don't deserve to win; you're not good enough.
Thatsashame
Roar Rookie
Considering Shiel and Caldwell didn't play, I think the depth is there to play finals again. Merrit snd Parish aren't going anywhere, Stringer just has to be similar again and the defence will improve. Othees havent lokes the best 22 but its fast. And tidays gane is fast. The Bombers could 4th or 14th but with some luck on the injury front, they should play finals and win 1.
Thatsashame
Roar Rookie
I think everyone I'd overestimating the Tigers. They won't play finals. They're done. Best players old, lost all depth players. The era is done. Happy to take that to the bank