Melbourne and Geelong are the two heavyweights of this AFL season.
Fremantle and Carlton are fading, as they were always going to. Brisbane keeps fluffing their lines. Sydney are too inconsistent. And Collingwood are riding a wave of momentum and good fortune that surely can’t take them all the way.
The Western Bulldogs and Richmond can’t string good games or even quarters together, while St Kilda simply aren’t good enough.
We know about Max Gawn, Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver, Steven May and Jake Lever. Tom Hawkins, Jeremy Cameron, Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood and Tom Stewart need no introduction.
But lots of teams have good players. And even the Demons and Cats have had plenty of years with those players where they haven’t won a flag. Your guns can take you so far, but without the team around them, it’s difficult to hoist that cup on the last Saturday in September.
But who are the players currently helping separate Geelong and Melbourne from the pack.
At the Cats, Tyson Stengle is in All Australian calculations and Sam De Koning is second favourite for the Rising Star award. They have been huge influences in taking their team to the top of the ladder, but are receiving their appropriate notices.
The trio of Tom Atkins, Brad Close and Max Holmes have propelled Geelong from a perennial top four threat into one that is now capable of going all the way.
Atkins and Close were mature rookie draft selections in 2019 and 2020 respectively, while Holmes was taken in the first round of the national draft after the 2020 season. They started this season with less than 100 games between them, and are at various stages of their football life, but have transformed Chris Scott’s team.
Standing only 180cm, Atkins is still as versatile as any member of the Cats line-up. He started as a pressure forward, was a running defender last year, and is now as hard a midfielder as there is. His tackle and stoppage pressure releases the higher profile mids, but he also lowers his eyes as well as any wearing hoops.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Here’s a statement. No-one at Geelong has better vision or hands than Brad Close. He is constantly putting teammates in good positions with his creativity, and has a knack for being in the right place at the right time when a goal is needed, kicking it himself or setting it up. His closing speed inside forward 50 is important with Tom Hawkins next to him, and works up and back across the field.
Max Holmes plays more of an outside game, using his enormous tank to great effect. He’s developing a reputation for putting himself in clever positions, suggesting a football brain that is only going to be educated further the more football he plays. His disposal was shaky at times in his debut year, but has drastically improved.
These players are the types that Geelong desperately needed to push for a premiership, after failing with the likes of Luke Dahlhaus and Shaun Higgins plugging away.
Melbourne’s most storied players haven’t always been at their best this season. Gawn has spent more time forward and been injured. Petracca has had quiet patches. Oliver has been prolific as always, and often excellent, but also wasteful and not yet near his best since breaking a hand.
Tom Sparrow, still just 22, was the sub on seven occasions last year before cementing his spot for the finals, where he performed superbly. He’s had incremental rather than exponential growth this season, and while he hasn’t yet had breakout game or even moment, he’s clearly in the best 22 now and a maturing part of the midfield rotations.
James Jordon is also a confirmed part of the midfield now after being the sub through those September finals. The ‘tough’ wingman is in vogue right now, and he fits that bill in never taking a backward step. He’s not Ed Langdon in terms of holding his position and providing run and drive, and is more effective as a defensive wingman for the moment.
Harry Petty is another valuable part of the Melbourne line-up, the foil for May and Lever. Richmond had David Astbury for Alex Rance and Dylan Grimes. Hawthorn had Ben Stratton for Brian Lake and Josh Gibson. You just love a footballer who doesn’t do a lot wrong, is ultra-competitive, and knows his game intimately – when to spoil, when to mark, how much to bite off when using the ball.
Make no mistake, Melbourne and Geelong will be meeting in September, and the six players mentioned above will be as crucial to the chances of their team as any.
Atkins will be going toe-to-toe with Oliver, Petracca and Viney at the clearances, just as Sparrow will be with Dangerfield, Selwood and Guthrie. Jordon’s responsibility will be to manage the run and link of Isaac Smith, as well as provide his own.
Close will be needed to pierce that often-impenetrable Demon defence. It will be Petty asked to stand Jeremy Cameron and quell his influence, a job he did earlier in the year. Holmes is improving every week and could be the spark that lights the fire for the Cats.
Whichever group performs their roles the best will likely wear a medal at the end of the season.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
No such thing as a certainty in finals Pete. It only takes a few injuries at the wrong time and the favourites are yesterdays news. This week will tell us how good Collingwood are. For me the danger sides are swans and tiges. I think they can upset the apple cart. But whatever happens Pies have a bright future.
Dusty does Danger
Roar Rookie
It’s more about getting your players back and peaking at the right time. Melbourne are doing that, they have the best midfield and have played the best footy. Tigers were never in the hunt, injuries everywhere and it was all over when Dusty went down. No comparison.
Dusty does Danger
Roar Rookie
Thanks Wind. I like the perspective from a Cat fan. Honestly don't know your guys that well (pretty much just watch Tigers play). From a Tiger perspective I like the Bolton matchup, that would be a handful for O'Connor. Same as a young SDK. I think Lynch monsters him. Maybe Henry on Jack, Kolo on Martin? Who does Stewart go on. There is Cumberland and Rioli Jnr. Who goes on them Wind? We have Balta on Cameron, Tarrant on Hawkins, Rioli on Stengle, Vlastuin on Close, Broad on Rohan. Gibcus/Miller to take someone. Grimes looks gone. Short can also take a midfield forward. This is why I like that Cats, worried about containing the Dees midfield
Seymorebutts
Guest
Venables was coming along nicely before his concussion. He was kicking goals as a midfielder, Shuey and Yeo were getting the tags which was allowing Venables to run free... and was getting plenty of quality possessions which is why Buckley tagged him... Venables was developing as a Luke Shuey clone... but Sadly not meant to be after his head injury. As for the other guys you mentioned, I think they will all turn into solid first grade players, none of them will be stars, which is to be expected given they were all taken towards the end of the first and second rounds of the draft. But they have all shown enough that they are capable of playing AFL. We can expect to get some top line future stars if we draft wisely (dont trade draft picks for any reason) but that will take time and then we also need to get games into them so we are at least 3-4 years away from being a serious contender, maybe 5-6. Making finals is meaningless to the Perth clubs, we really need to finish top 4, preferably top two and win that first final to have any chance of winning a flag. .. The cumulative travel simply takes too much of a toll on them of we dont get that week off. We did it in 2006 mind you.. but with Kerr, Cousins Judd and Embly as your midfield, with Braun chipping in.. well, not many midfields have been better than that, cant expect to fluke a lineup like that again ; ]
CloudRunner
Roar Rookie
Melbourne’s season has unfolded thus far almost identically to last years: won there first 9 last year then went 4-4 and a draw, losing to the Bulldogs in Round 19. This year it was the first 10, then a 3-5 record, losing to the Bulldogs in Round 19. They won there last four last year but will be more difficult this time round to do so. However there is one key difference: there record against the Top 8. Last year it was 8-2, by far the best, with both those losses against teams they also beat. This year it’s 4-5 with teams implementing plans around Melbourne’s structure. It’ll be there ability to address this when they inevitably face teams that have already beat them come finals, including two teams that generally have the wood on them, Sydney and Collingwood. For now though, Geelong feel the team to bear with Sydney the Smokey.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Bangkok. I'm not calling the Pies a genuine contender but live in hope of a miracle. However, bottom 6 for the Pies if we were fully healthy in finals is a really hard one as we have such an even squad. Best side: Maynard, Moore, Murphy Quaynor, Howe, N Daicos Sidebottom, Adams, J Daicos Mihocek, Cameron, De Goey Ginnivan, Elliott, McReery FOLL: Grundy Pendelbury Crisp INT: (from) Lipinksi, Noble, Johnson, Henry, Hoskin-Elliott, Cox
Windrince
Roar Rookie
We match up well on you also - O'Connor on Bolton, SDK on Lynch, Henry/Kolodjasnij on Riewoldt etc
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Pies were given no chance in the 2018 preliminary and yet look what happened. Just have to make a prelim and give yourself a shot at it. Cats do this nearly every year. Extraordinary club.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
A theory many subscribe to nics. It would be interesting to do a comparison of the "bottom six" of each contender in the 8. I would include Richmond as they are clearly above their ladder position and will be a contender. Tiges IMO are playing better and as Scotty says its not about who you play but when you play them. The tiges are no longer intubated and I expect the I.V. to be removed shortly and them moved from ICU to recovery.
mattpolo8
Guest
Completely disagree with this. Don't think an "extraordinary turn of events" is all that's needed for it not to be Geelong v Melbourne. Realistically either of them just need to be have one and a half bad quarters, which well, Geelong did on the weekend, in a hot game against a team that's on, for it not to be a Geelong v Melbourne GF. There's so many other factors in it.
Julieanne Bonnici
Roar Rookie
Gee Cameron, lucky you've told me that my Swans are TOO INCONSISTENT to win the flag this year, save me a fortune on finals tickets. Maybe you can explain to me then why my team is - in your words TOO INCONSISTENT, yet looking at the last 10 weeks, The Swans have won 7 (5 of which against top 10 sides), lost 2 and had the bye with a current winning streak of 4. Melbourne on the other hand have won 4 (2 of which against top 10 sides), lost 5 and had the bye and are currently on a 1 game winning streak. Ummmm who's INCONSISTENT????
PeteB
Roar Rookie
But with luck on their side…..
AdamDilligafThompson
Roar Rookie
Ohhh I actually thought i remembered or heard that was the port game last year when we got you, before we got spanked by the bulldogs.lol.
AdamDilligafThompson
Roar Rookie
100% man the last thing you want is injuries before finals especially to those major players, Stewart was a huge loss for Geelong for sure. Thats why I think it be easier to cover a selwood or a danger then it would a Stewart or say Cameron. Not only are you losing one of your best players but it throws your structure out and your on field leadership and organisation. Like with Melbourne i think you'd rather lose say Oliver than May. Not saying any of those players aren't good or disposable of course.lol.
Kick to Kick
Roar Rookie
Can’t see Melbourne being the Cats main opposition. In the past 9 games Melbourne are 4 and 5. If the second half of the season was a measure Dees would not even make the finals. The Brisbane win was impressive but Dockers were an easy kill. And Geelong monstered them in round 17. It reminds me of Richmond last year with pundits saying to the last minute the Tigers would come right. They didn’t. Melbourne has the similar feel of a fading force.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Fair enough Cat. Won’t strike twice
Kick to Kick
Roar Rookie
No team in the 3 decade AFL era of a national competition has won the flag with a home and away percentage below 110%. Collingwood currently sits at 106.2%. Curiously the closest is Richmond in 2019 at 113.7%. The majority of flag winners have finished on 120% plus. Records are made to be broken - but …
Paul cotton
Guest
That's interesting The Dees match up really well with the cats. I wonder if the Dees could Simply run cats off their legs. Cats are looking good but the 2 teams playing at their best I think the Dees would get the cats.✅✅✅
Cloak
Roar Rookie
I’m comfortable with our form but would agree with anyone who says Geelong’s a more likely premier, or that we need to improve. It’s not as simple as “they’ll catch fire like they did last year”. We’re not as fit, not as stable, and our run home is much harder than last year. Weideman won’t hold his spot when Brown and McDonald get fit. Melksham’s actually played a solid defensive forward role since returning though. Lever hasn’t reached 2021 levels but our backline’s been so unstable this year with injuries so it’s no surprise none of them down there have hit last year’s levels. I’d add Jordon, Brayshaw, Hibberd and Fritsch to the list of improved players. But our chances rest on Jackson, Sparrow, Spargo, Rivers, Jordon and ANB, our “role players”, stepping up as they did this time last year.
Mybrotherbilo
Roar Rookie
Chris it'd take an extraordinary turn of events for it to be anything but. If they can field their best sides throughout sept then no other side will go close. Having said that however, we all know how things can change quickly with injuries, covid etc. Should be a ripper last 3 rds and finals. Can't wait!