Salary dumps, Jackson's WA choice, and will the Roos crack on JHF? Six burning questions ahead of the AFL Trade Period

The AFL Trade period is upon us – and the 2022 edition promises to be a DOOZY.

A plethora of significant player movements are set to dominate discussion for the next 10 days, with premiership heroes, future stars and talented hopefuls all vying to further their careers. And as if we needed any more drama, the reigning number one draft pick is keen to be on the move too.

So from Jason Horne-Francis to Josh Dunkley, from Tim Taranto heading south to Luke Jackson moving west, here are five burning questions ahead of this year’s silly season.

Will this be the busiest trade period ever?

There’s no bona fide superstar like a Jeremy Cameron or Patrick Dangerfield on the move this year; nor is there a Collingwood-style salary cap controversy to whet our appetites and lead to wild speculation, innuendo and fun. But the big factor in making this year’s trade period potentially as memorably as any is the sheer volume of moves that need to get done.

This time last year, just 13 trades were completed that involved players changing clubs; in 2020, there were 21; and in 2019, there were 25. This year, though, all the talk is that the number of players swapping out their colours could reach the 30s for the first time since 2018 – and maybe, if we’re lucky, even hit the 40 mark for the first time ever.

Most likely we won’t reach those lofty heights; some deals will fall through, others will come to terms with their current homes, and much of the next 10 days will be dominated, as always, by wild speculation, guesswork and enormous over-analysis of everything with even the barest flicker of interest.

But hopefully this time, there’s enough meat that we don’t have to reach a new level of absurdity in our hypothetical fake trades. Looking at you, Trade Radio…

How do the Lions get a Dunkley deal done?

Fact 1: Josh Dunkley wants to be a Brisbane Lion. Fact 2: Will Ashcroft, the presumptive best player in the 2022 draft pool, is also bound for the Lions. Fact 3: The Lions currently have picks 15, 34, 45 and 70 in this year’s draft.

List manager Dom Ambrogio certainly has his work cut out for him. Should an Ashcroft bid come with pick 1, as is expected, the Lions will need to match the maximum 3000 draft points to secure his services (for scale, their pick 15 is worth 1112 points). They can, of course, go into deficit – and probably will – but they wouldn’t want to give themselves too much of an anchor for 2023 lest some other talented prospect fancy a move north next year. On top of that, they’ll somehow need to keep enough points to match a bid for a second father-son option in Jaspa Fletcher.

It’s probably fair to say that the Lions’ draft haul isn’t particularly appealing to the Western Bulldogs, either. A ball-winning, goalkicking midfielder coming off a best and fairest is surely worth more than anything a top-four club like the Lions can give, unless they do something silly and put a Cam Rayner up for grabs (a real suggestion I saw floating around).

There were rumours, however, that the Lions had an interest in Gold Coast half-back Jack Bowes – and, tantalisingly, the Suns’ pick 7 along with him. Could that be the key to unlock everything?

Picture this: the Lions trade their 2022 first- or even second-round pick to the Suns for Bowes, while picking up some or all of his reported $1 million salary for the next two years. That pick 7 then goes to the Bulldogs in a straight swap for Dunkley, or perhaps with a Dogs third-rounder tacked on to give the Lions a few extra draft points. Brisbane then have pick 15, plus any other picks they can accrue this trade period, to match bids for Ashcroft and Fletcher.

The result? Two young guns, a star midfielder and a steak-knives half-back following the Jarryd Lyons route an hour’s drive north.

Of course, the salary might be a sticking point, given the Lions have a talented list that must surely be stretching their cap thin. They might even have no interest in a player like Bowes given the presence of young defenders Keidean Coleman and Darcy Wilmot, plus the experienced Daniel Rich.

But without a circuit-breaking move like that, expect a Dunkley deal to drag on. It’s probably the most complicated move of the whole trade period, and I foresee a scenario where both parties don’t leave particularly happy with it.

Josh Dunkley (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Can North afford to give Jason Horne-Francis what he wants?

Poor North Melbourne.

After an August of hope, things have gone rather pear-shaped in the last fortnight. First, Alastair Clarkson delayed his start as coach in the wake of some grisly allegations. And now, their prized number one draft pick of last year has confirmed what everyone has speculated since he arrived at the Roos, and requested a trade home to Port Adelaide.

The good news for North is that Jason Horne-Francis has a year left on his contract; they have no obligation to give him what he wants. Recent history has seen teams with a far greater inclination to hold players to their agreement – think Joe Daniher, Tom Papley, Dunkley et.al – so it’s definitely far from certain that Horne-Francis will go.

The bad news is that Horne-Francis’ homesickness is hardly likely to abate in 12 months’ time – unless, of course, the Kangaroos can miraculously change their current on-field malaise. Of the above three examples, two of them left their clubs as soon as their contracts ended (assuming Dunkley does indeed go this trade period), with their value lower for the lack of bargaining power said clubs had.

North would be nuts to give up Horne-Francis solely for the Power’s first-round pick this year, currently sitting at 8 but possibly sliding into double digits once father-son and Academy bids are factored in. Even that pick and next year’s first-rounder would be a risk, as Port could easily climb back into the top eight next year and see their draft spot rise accordingly.

Equally, Port aren’t exactly going to be keen to give up a player of sufficient quality to make that sort of swap worthwhile; why on earth would you trade a Zak Butters or a Xavier Duursma or even a Lachie Jones for a player who wants to be at your club, and with only 12 months until your leverage in any deal triples in stature?

Unfortunately, the reality for North is that they really can’t come out winners in this situation. Their best bet, probably, is to hold Horne-Francis to his contract, and spend the next 12 months doing everything within their power to convince him to stay.

Unless, of course, Port crack and do something stupid. If there’s one thing every trade period features, it’s a team cracking and doing something stupid.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Eagles or Dockers: who does Luke Jackson pick?

If there’s such a thing as a dream scenario for losing a player, it’s the one facing Melbourne right now.

Sure, they’re losing a premiership ruckman and future star in Luke Jackson; but while he and Horne-Francis have both expressed a desire to return to their home states, that’s where the similarities end.

Horne-Francis, while under contract, has cut North’s options down to one; Jackson, though uncontracted for next year, is yet to state a preference for either West Coast or Fremantle.

It’s a great situation for the Demons; both clubs have assets, both in terms of draft picks and players, to compensate the Dees as much as could be expected, and the presence of both of them vying to outbid the other can only mean good things for Jackson’s value.

For the Eagles, their pick 2 (probably pick 3 on draft night given the Ashcroft situation) will loom large in any trade discussion; Jackson was a pick 3 in his own draft back in 2019, and if anything his worth has increased since then. That pick for Jackson as a straight swap seems fair for both parties, with unrestricted free agent Jayden Hunt a potential set of steak knives if the Eagles want to include him in the bargain, though they can just get him for free anyway if he wants to head west.

Freo, meanwhile, have Griffin Logue, Rory Lobb and Darcy Tucker all eyeing moves to Victorian clubs, plus pick 13 in the draft. One suspects given that trio are under contract, the Dockers will at least get a first- or second-rounder to add to their hand. Logue and Tucker’s desired moves to North Melbourne helps that substantially, with the Roos given a second- and third-rounder in next year’s draft on the proviso that they trade them both for players this year.

As for Lobb, the Dogs seem desperate to get him, and he is under contract, so you can’t discount them overpaying for his services, perhaps even with whatever pick they get from the Lions for Josh Dunkley should that deal get done. They won’t have anything as valuable as the Eagles’ pick 2, but collectively, a series of first- and second-rounders could be better for a Demons list rapidly losing its depth to rival clubs.

Of course, this all becomes moot should Jackson pick one of the two clubs, either publicly or privately. But as it stands, the Dees have no reason to rush this trade in: better to sit back and let the Dockers and Eagles fight amongst themselves to make them the best offer.

Luke Jackson. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

Will Freo bend on Rory Lobb?

This time last year, Rory Lobb requested a trade from Fremantle back to GWS, with two years to run on his contract. The Dockers held firm.

12 months on, Lobb has again sought a trade, this time to the Western Bulldogs, with still a year left to run at the Dockers. Again, at the time of writing, Freo are clear that he won’t be traded under any circumstances.

The Dockers have made their stance pretty clear for the past two years, and football boss Peter Bell has become renowned as a straight-shooter in these matters. It’s hard to see the Dockers bending on Lobb… without an offer they can’t refuse.

As a Bulldogs fan, I’m consistently worried about my team doing something dumb. The infamous Tom Boyd deal of 2014, in which they gave up wantaway captain Ryan Griffen and pick 6 for a nine-game hopeful and reigning pick 1, might have ended up proving worth every cent for one glorious game, but was still an incredibly ballsy bit of list management that definitely didn’t work out the way it was intended.

Dogs list boss Sam Power is a shrewder operator than most, but the club wants Lobb enough to have offered him three years at $1.5 million. They clearly see him as capable of arresting their fast-shutting premiership window, and providing a forward target while Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Sam Darcy develop. And with every day of the trade period that goes by, the pressure to find a carrot to dangle in front of the Dockers will only grow.

Any potential trade will likely have to wait until after Dunkley becomes a Lion – if the Dogs add a second first-round draft pick to their 2022 haul, they might be willing to offload one of them to bring Lobb in. If anything, this is one trade you can expect to go right to deadline day – if it happens at all.

Rory Lobb. (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Are ‘salary dump’ trades the way of the future?

Matthew Lobbe walked, so Will Brodie could run, so Jack Bowes and Brodie Grundy could fly.

It used to be practically taboo for a team to give up a player and diminish their draft hand at the same time, but with more and more teams getting very creative with their books and back-ending long-term contracts, it seems we’ve stumbled on the latest list management craze to hit the AFL.

The Suns must be in a pretty sticky situation – or just have finally had it up to here with first-round picks wasting their time for two years and immediately heading home – to be willing to package their pick 7 in with Bowes. Make no mistake, Gold Coast are trading for cap space, not to improve their list.

The Grundy situation is slightly different – the value of a first-round draft pick at Collingwood is just higher than it is at the Suns, given their respective draftee retention rates – but for the Pies to get anything resembling market value for him, they’ll need to wear a chunk of his salary. Hell, they’re already paying $300,000 a year for Adam Treloar to play for someone else.

Given Grundy’s likeliest destination appears to be, for reasons that continue to baffle me, Melbourne, it’s unlikely the Pies can expect much in the way of a return. The Dees don’t have a high, top-10 draft pick to trade (yet), and if they do get one for Luke Jackson, immediately passing it on for Grundy would surely require the Pies to practically keep his million dollars plus a year under their salary cap.

No doubt Bowes and Grundy are just part of the beginning. Contract lengths are getting longer and longer, deals are getting back-ended all over the place as clubs chase flags in the now and worry about the consequences later. The Magpies’ success in 2022, and the lack of influence of any of the players they were forced to offload for peanuts in late 2020 (save for Treloar) has set an example that teams can effectively recoup most of their losses should those heavy investments not work out.

In the beginning, the trade period was simple: player for player. Then draft picks got involved, then future draft picks, then live-trading on draft night. And now we have a new addition to the list of commodities up for grabs, more or less: salary cap space.

Welcome to a new era, ladies and gentlemen. We’re through the looking glass now.

The Roar will be running a daily blog throughout the 2022 AFL Trade Period, bringing you all the news as it happens and every trade or free agency signing as they are announced. For up-to-date information on your team and all your favourite players, be sure to check out our official AFL Trade Rumours page.